San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (San Lorenzo 37%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 69% · bookies 69% · ✓ 0 goals
The Verdict
All three readings lean the same way: a tight, low-scoring match with San Lorenzo only slightly favoured. The coach and the sceptic both see goals falling short of the line, and the winless head-to-head record tempers home confidence. Probabilities cluster near 37-35-28, with the over around 27-31%.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo blunt attacks point to a low-scoring grind with only a marginal home edge.
San Lorenzo score just 0.73 a game but keep clean sheets in 47% of matches, and only 17% of their games top 2.5 goals. Newell's concede 1.28 a game yet both teams score in 52% of theirs. With expected goals of 1.0 versus 0.9, chances look scarce.
Newell's Old Boys: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table comfort on both sides points to a tense, cagey afternoon with little at stake.
San Lorenzo sit 8th on 40 points from 30 games with a perfectly even 10-10-10 record. Newell's are 12th on 35 from 29.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market may overrate San Lorenzo given their winless head-to-head run.
San Lorenzo have not beaten Newell's in six meetings: four draws, two defeats and only 1.7 goals a game, including a 0-0 this year. Newell's have lost just once in their last six.
San Lorenzo: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
San Lorenzo are slight favourites at 37%, with Newell's Old Boys on 28% and the draw on 35%. San Lorenzo are 8th and Newell's Old Boys 12th in Liga Profesional. In their last five league games, San Lorenzo won two and Newell's Old Boys two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- San Lorenzo win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 65%
- Newell's Old Boys win or draw
- 63%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 58%
- 3+ goals
- 31%
- 4+ goals
- 13%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 38%
- No
- 62%
We expect about 1.0 goals from San Lorenzo and 0.9 from Newell's Old Boys. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (13%), 2–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% | 35% | 28% | Stats preview | #813 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
San Lorenzo: last 6
WWLLDW · 5 scored, 7 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Estudiantes L.P. | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Deportivo Riestra | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Defensa Y Justicia | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Boca Juniors | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Independiente | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Talleres Cordoba | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WLWWL
Newell's Old Boys: last 6
WLDWDD · 5 scored, 4 conceded
| 19 Oct | vs Central Cordoba de Santiago | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | at Gimnasia M. | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Lanus | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Platense | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Velez Sarsfield | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | at Rosario Central | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LWDDL
Season stats
| San Lorenzo | Newell's Old Boys | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.73 | Goals scored per game | 0.97 |
| 0.90 | Goals conceded per game | 1.28 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.07 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game away | 0.86 |
| 17% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 34% |
| 30% | Both teams scored | 52% |
| 47% | Clean sheets | 24% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 34% |
League matches only, 30 and 29 games.
Liga Profesional table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Defensa Y Justicia | 30 | +4 | 46 | WLWWD |
| 6 | Estudiantes L.P. | 30 | +12 | 45 | LDWLW |
| 7 | Independiente | 30 | +1 | 43 | DDLWD |
| 8 | San Lorenzo | 31 | -5 | 41 | DWWLL |
| 9 | Gimnasia M. | 30 | -7 | 39 | LLWLD |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 31 | -1 | 38 | DLLLL |
| 11 | Newell's Old Boys | 30 | -9 | 36 | DWLDW |
| 12 | Talleres Cordoba | 31 | -6 | 35 | LLDLL |
| 13 | Platense | 30 | -11 | 30 | WLDDL |
| 14 | Central Cordoba de Santiago | 29 | -17 | 26 | LDDDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: San Lorenzo won 0, Newell's Old Boys 2, 4 draws; 1.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2026 | Newell's Old Boys | 0–0 | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 27 Jul 2024 | San Lorenzo | 1–1 | Newell's Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 4 Mar 2024 | Newell's Old Boys | 2–2 | San Lorenzo | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 7 Oct 2023 | San Lorenzo | 0–3 | Newell's Old Boys | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 20 Mar 2023 | Newell's Old Boys | 1–0 | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 9 Jun 2022 | Newell's Old Boys | 0–0 | San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Match context
- Rest days
- San Lorenzo 6Newell's Old Boys 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: San Lorenzo 2 · Newell's Old Boys 2
- Referee
- Luis Lobo Medina
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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