VfL Osnabruck vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
VfL Osnabruck to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 60% · bookies 60% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
The goals case is consistent too, with both teams conceding freely and 75% both-teams-scored rates, supporting the 62% over 2.5 line. Expect a tight, open contest.
What our AI analysts say
All three think SpVgg Greuther Fürth's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth leak goals and both score regularly, so an open game looks likely.
Osnabruck's matches top 2.5 goals 62% of the time, and the model gives 64% for both teams scoring here.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: clearly underrated
Med The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table pair with little separating them after eight games.
Fürth sit 10th on 9 points, Osnabruck 12th on 8, so only one point apart.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: strongly underrated
High The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home lean looks slightly generous given Osnabruck's poor recent run.
Osnabruck have lost four of their last six, and their home record reads D-L-W-L-L with 12 conceded in five. Fürth's away form of L-D-W-D with 7 scored and 7 conceded suggests the 42-35 home split could be a touch high.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: strongly underrated
High Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
VfL Osnabruck are favourites at 45%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 29% and the draw on 26%. VfL Osnabruck are 12th and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 10th in 2. Bundesliga. In their last five league games, VfL Osnabruck won one and SpVgg Greuther Fürth one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- VfL Osnabruck win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 60%
- 4+ goals
- 37%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.7 goals from VfL Osnabruck and 1.4 from SpVgg Greuther Fürth. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 23% | 35% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #983 | |
| 2 | 42% | 26% | 32% | Prices moved | #1299 | |
| 3 | 45% | 26% | 29% | Prices moved | #1364 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
VfL Osnabruck: last 6
LDDLWL · 8 scored, 12 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Arminia Bielefeld | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Dynamo Dresden | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Holstein Kiel | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Hertha BSC | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Eintracht Braunschweig | 3–1 | W |
| 2 Sep | vs Bayern München DFB Pokal | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLWLL
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: last 6
WLDDLW · 9 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Eintracht Braunschweig | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Hertha BSC | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs 1. FC Magdeburg | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at VfL Bochum | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs 1. FC Heidenheim | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | at Energie Cottbus | 4–3 | W |
Last 4 away: LDWD
Season stats
| VfL Osnabruck | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.38 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 1.88 | Goals conceded per game | 1.62 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.75 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 12% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | +8 | 16 | WLWDW |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | +0 | 15 | DLDDW |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | +2 | 12 | DDWDW |
| 8 | VfL Osnabruck | 9 | -1 | 11 | WLDDL |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | -1 | 11 | LWWDL |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | +0 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | -1 | 10 | DDLDW |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | -4 | 9 | LWLDD |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | -1 | 8 | WDLDL |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | -4 | 8 | DLLLD |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | -7 | 8 | LWDLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: VfL Osnabruck won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2, 2 draws; 1.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Apr 2024 | VfL Osnabruck | 2–0 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2. Bundesliga |
| 27 Oct 2023 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 4–0 | VfL Osnabruck | 2. Bundesliga |
| 26 Jan 2021 | VfL Osnabruck | 0–1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2. Bundesliga |
| 20 Sep 2020 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 1–1 | VfL Osnabruck | 2. Bundesliga |
| 26 May 2020 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 0–2 | VfL Osnabruck | 2. Bundesliga |
| 27 Oct 2019 | VfL Osnabruck | 0–0 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2. Bundesliga |
Match context
- Rest days
- VfL Osnabruck 7SpVgg Greuther Fürth 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: VfL Osnabruck 1 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1
- Referee
- Justin Joel Hasmann
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
