Hertha Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Hertha Berlin to win: 53%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 62% · bookies 62% · ✗ 1 goals
The Verdict
All three readings land on a Hertha win close to the published 53%, with the table and rest case the strongest. The Coach sees goals on both sides' scoring and conceding rates, while the Sceptic's head-to-head record trims the 62% over line only slightly. A home win in a game with goals is the shared picture.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Hertha Berlin's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHertha's home scoring rate against Bielefeld's leaky defence points to goals at both ends.
Both teams have scored in 75% of matches for each side, and their games clear 2.5 goals 75% and 88% of the time. Bielefeld manage only 1.00 scored per away game.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureUnbeaten leaders with full rest should control a mid-table visitor on a short turnaround.
Hertha sit top on 22 points from 8 games, unbeaten with seven wins, while Bielefeld are 8th on 11. Hertha have won their last three at home and get seven days' rest to Bielefeld's five, with both clubs playing two games in the last fortnight.
Hertha Berlin: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home lean looks fair, but the goals line may be a shade high on this head-to-head record.
The last six head-to-heads average 2.3 goals, including a 0-0 and two 1-1s; Bielefeld have won two to Hertha's one, with a 6-1 in 2026. Hertha's last outing was a 0-0 at Holstein Kiel. The 62% goals line looks slightly generous; the 53% home number looks about right.
Hertha Berlin: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Hertha Berlin are favourites at 53%, with Arminia Bielefeld on 23% and the draw on 24%. Hertha Berlin are 1st and Arminia Bielefeld 8th in 2. Bundesliga. In their last five league games, Hertha Berlin won four and Arminia Bielefeld two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Hertha Berlin win or draw
- 77%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Arminia Bielefeld win or draw
- 47%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 62%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.9 goals from Hertha Berlin and 1.2 from Arminia Bielefeld. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (8%), 2–0 (8%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 53% | 24% | 23% | Stats preview | #664 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Hertha Berlin: last 6
DWWWWW · 14 scored, 7 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Holstein Kiel | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Dynamo Dresden | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | at VfL Osnabrück | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs 1. FC Magdeburg | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | at Eintracht Braunschweig | 5–3 | W |
Last 3 at home: WWW
Arminia Bielefeld: last 6
WWDLDL · 9 scored, 11 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs VfL Osnabrück | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at VfL Bochum | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs 1. FC Heidenheim | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sep | at SV Darmstadt 98 | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs FC St. Pauli | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | at 1. FC Nürnberg | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLDL
Season stats
| Hertha Berlin | Arminia Bielefeld | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.38 | Goals scored per game | 1.62 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.62 |
| 2.67 | Scored per game at home | 2.25 |
| 2.20 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 88% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 12% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha Berlin | 9 | +12 | 25 | WDWWW |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | +9 | 18 | LDDWW |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | +5 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | +9 | 16 | DWDWL |
| … | |||||
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | +0 | 15 | DLDDW |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | +2 | 12 | DDWDW |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | -1 | 11 | WLDDL |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | -1 | 11 | LWWDL |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | +0 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | -1 | 10 | DDLDW |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | -4 | 9 | LWLDD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Hertha Berlin won 1, Arminia Bielefeld 2, 3 draws; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6–1 | Hertha Berlin | 2. Bundesliga |
| 19 Dec 2025 | Hertha Berlin | 1–1 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga |
| 30 Apr 2022 | Arminia Bielefeld | 1–1 | Hertha Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 11 Dec 2021 | Hertha Berlin | 2–0 | Arminia Bielefeld | Bundesliga |
| 9 May 2021 | Hertha Berlin | 0–0 | Arminia Bielefeld | Bundesliga |
| 10 Jan 2021 | Arminia Bielefeld | 1–0 | Hertha Berlin | Bundesliga |
Match context
- Rest days
- Hertha Berlin 7Arminia Bielefeld 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Hertha Berlin 2 · Arminia Bielefeld 2
- Referee
- Cristian Ballweg
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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