SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
St. Pauli to win: 42%, about 2 in 5
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', with a 3-point shift from away to draw following The Sceptic's argument that St. Pauli's four away draws make a tight finish more likely than the market implies. The Coach's and The Dressing Room's views, which both agreed with the market, were not fully followed because the concrete away-draw pattern is a specific signal the market appears to underweight.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsThe tactical balance suggests a tight match where both sides have attacking threats.
Darmstadt 98 starts in a 4-4-2 formation, while FC St. Pauli uses a 3-4-1-2 setup. St. Pauli's attack is built around the quality of Eric Smith. Coach Kohfeldt previously criticized Darmstadt's lack of defensive discipline.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureSt. Pauli's away solidity edges a pressured Darmstadt, but home fightback keeps it tight.
Darmstadt sit on just 4 points from 6 games, recently bottom, and were beaten 4-0 at Karlsruhe last time out, with Kohfeldt publicly criticising discipline and work rate. St. Pauli are unbeaten away but have drawn all four away matches, still chasing a first away win.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongSt. Pauli's four away draws point to another tight game at Böllenfalltor.
St. The league averages 3.11 goals per match this season.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Darmstadt, 17th and reeling from a 0-4 defeat at Karlsruher SC, host a St. Pauli side unbeaten away but with four draws from four away games. Kohfeldt has hinted at lineup changes after criticising his team's defensive discipline. St. Pauli's away profile is draw-heavy, which shapes our slightly higher draw probability.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- SV Darmstadt 98 win or draw
- 58%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- FC St. Pauli win or draw
- 70%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 67%
- 3+ goals
- 41%
- 4+ goals
- 20%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 1.0 goals from SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.3 from FC St. Pauli. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (13%), 1–0 (10%), 0–0 (10%), 1–2 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 32% | 27% | 42% | 56% |
| AI analysts | 32% | 30% | 38% | 54% |
| Our forecast | 30% | 28% | 42% | – |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market, with a small shift from away to draw because St. Pauli's away record is draw-heavy rather than win-heavy, while Darmstadt's two straight home wins offset their poor overall form.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% | 27% | 43% | Stats preview | #559 | |
| 2 | 29% | 28% | 43% | Full analysis | #627 | |
| 3 | 30% | 28% | 42% | Official lineups | #727 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
SV Darmstadt 98: last 6
LWLWLL · 6 scored, 15 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Karlsruher SC | 0–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Energie Cottbus | 3–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | at VfL Wolfsburg | 1–5 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Arminia Bielefeld | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 0–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Hannover 96 | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 at home: WWLD
FC St. Pauli: last 6
DWDWDL · 8 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Hannover 96 | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Karlsruher SC | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Energie Cottbus | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs VfL Wolfsburg | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sep | at Arminia Bielefeld | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: DDDLD
Season stats
| SV Darmstadt 98 | FC St. Pauli | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.38 |
| 2.25 | Goals conceded per game | 1.12 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 0.25 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 75% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | +9 | 16 | DWDWL |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | +8 | 16 | WLWDW |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | +0 | 15 | DLDDW |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | +2 | 12 | DDWDW |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | -1 | 11 | WLDDL |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | -1 | 11 | LWWDL |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | +0 | 10 | WLWLD |
| … | |||||
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | -7 | 8 | LWDLD |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | -7 | 8 | LDLWL |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | -9 | 8 | LWLLL |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | -10 | 8 | DLWLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: SV Darmstadt 98 won 2, FC St. Pauli 2, 2 draws; 3.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 May 2023 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 0–3 | FC St. Pauli | 2. Bundesliga |
| 29 Oct 2022 | FC St. Pauli | 1–1 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 2. Bundesliga |
| 23 Apr 2022 | FC St. Pauli | 1–2 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 2. Bundesliga |
| 20 Nov 2021 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 4–0 | FC St. Pauli | 2. Bundesliga |
| 20 Feb 2021 | FC St. Pauli | 3–2 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 2. Bundesliga |
| 24 Oct 2020 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 2–2 | FC St. Pauli | 2. Bundesliga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1M. Schuhen
Defenders
- 25W. Mikelbrencis
- 6P. Pfeiffer
- 49Y. Lührs
- 18R. Petretta
Midfielders
- 5M. Richter
- 17K. Klefisch
- 16H. Akiyama
- 7N. Weißhaupt
Forwards
- 19F. Lakenmacher
- 36M. Smit
Substitutes (9)
- 30A. Brunst
- 41L. Duijvestijn
- 11I. El Kadiri
- 22L. Kehl
- 3F. Kleinhansl
- 28C. Lannert
- 9Lee Ho-Jae
- 10N. Verkooijen
- 20A. Vukotić
Goalkeeper
- 1B. Voll
Defenders
- 4D. Nemeth
- 8E. Smith
- 21L. Ritzka
Midfielders
- 11A. Pyrka
- 20M. Rasmussen
- 16J. Fujita
- 23L. Oppie
- 24C. Metcalfe
Forwards
- 7Y. Niang
- 9Abdoulie Ceesay
Substitutes (9)
- 6M. Mathisen
- 22Samuel Klein
- 19M. Kaars
- 26R. Jones
- 10B. Hrgota
- 18T. Hara
- 25A. Dźwigała
- 15T. Ando
- 33D. Mitov
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
Key facts
- Darmstadt sit 17th with 7 points from 8 games and have lost all four away league matches this season.[1]
- Darmstadt lost 0-4 at Karlsruher SC in their most recent match, and coach Florian Kohfeldt criticised the lack of defensive discipline and said lineup changes are likely.[1]
- St. Pauli are 7th with 11 points from 8 games and are unbeaten away this season, but all four away matches ended in draws.[1][2]
- St. Pauli coach Marcel Rapp says the same squad is available as last week and warns against underestimating Darmstadt's set-piece threat, particularly Vukotić in the air.[2]
- Kohfeldt has flagged St. Pauli's pace in attack and Eric Smith's build-up quality as dangers for his side.[1]
Sources
- bulinews.com – 2. Bundesliga preview: SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC St. Pauli - Bulinews (2026-10-22)
- fcstpauli.com – Head coach Marcel Rapp ahead of Darmstadt away 2627 - FC St. Pauli (2026-10-21)
Match context
- Rest days
- SV Darmstadt 98 5FC St. Pauli 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: SV Darmstadt 98 2 · FC St. Pauli 2
- Referee
- Timo Gansloweit
- Goals in this league
- 2. Bundesliga average: 3.11 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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