1. FC Nürnberg vs Kaiserslautern prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
1. Nürnberg to win: 48%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 63% · bookies 63% · ✗ 1 goals
The Verdict
The Coach sees their mean defence tempering the home attack, the Sceptic notes the head-to-head's 2.0 goals per game, so the 2.5 line at 63% is the softest spot, with the Dressing Room's table stakes pointing to a tight, high-effort contest.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think 1. FC Nürnberg's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersNuernberg's home firepower against the league's tightest defence points to a lively one.
But Kaiserslautern fail to score in 50% of games and only both teams scored in 12% of their fixtures, against Nuernberg's 75%. One attack versus one stubborn low block.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSecond versus fourth with three points between them makes this a genuine statement game.
Both had a full week to prepare with one game in 14 days. Nuernberg's home run of D W W W with 13 scored adds to the sense of a top-of-the-table occasion.
1. Nürnberg: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home lean looks right, but the goal expectation may be a touch high.
The numbers lean to goals: both teams scored 63%, 4+ goals in 40% of matches, and Nuernberg's last six include a 4-4 and a 4-1. Yet the head-to-head averages just 2.0 goals per game with a 0-0 and a 3-0, so Kaiserslautern's away rate of 0.50 scored could argue the total line is priced generously.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
1. FC Nürnberg are favourites at 48%, with Kaiserslautern on 28% and the draw on 24%. 1. FC Nürnberg are 2nd and Kaiserslautern 5th in 2. Bundesliga. In their last five league games, 1. FC Nürnberg won two and Kaiserslautern three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- 1. FC Nürnberg win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Kaiserslautern win or draw
- 52%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 62%
- 4+ goals
- 40%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 63%
- No
- 37%
We expect about 1.8 goals from 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.4 from Kaiserslautern. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (7%), 1–2 (7%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% | 24% | 28% | Stats preview | #770 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
1. FC Nürnberg: last 6
DDWWDW · 14 scored, 9 conceded
| 16 Oct | at Energie Cottbus | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs VfL Wolfsburg | 4–4 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Karlsruher SC | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Hannover 96 | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Holstein Kiel | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Arminia Bielefeld | 4–1 | W |
Last 4 at home: DWWW
Kaiserslautern: last 6
WDWLWW · 8 scored, 4 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs VfL Bochum | 2–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | at 1. FC Heidenheim | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Eintracht Braunschweig | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | at 1. FC Magdeburg | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs SV Darmstadt 98 | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | at FC St. Pauli | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: DLWWD
Season stats
| 1. FC Nürnberg | Kaiserslautern | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.62 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.38 | Goals conceded per game | 0.50 |
| 3.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 75% | Both teams scored | 12% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 75% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | +12 | 25 | WDWWW |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | +9 | 18 | LDDWW |
| 3 | Kaiserslautern | 9 | +5 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | +9 | 16 | DWDWL |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | +8 | 16 | WLWDW |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | +0 | 15 | DLDDW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: 1. FC Nürnberg won 2, Kaiserslautern 1, 3 draws; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2026 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 3–0 | Kaiserslautern | 2. Bundesliga |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Kaiserslautern | 1–1 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 2. Bundesliga |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Kaiserslautern | 1–2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 2. Bundesliga |
| 8 Nov 2024 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 0–0 | Kaiserslautern | 2. Bundesliga |
| 18 Feb 2024 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 1–1 | Kaiserslautern | 2. Bundesliga |
| 5 Dec 2023 | Kaiserslautern | 2–0 | 1. FC Nürnberg | DFB Pokal |
Match context
- Rest days
- 1. FC Nürnberg 8Kaiserslautern 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: 1. FC Nürnberg 1 · Kaiserslautern 1
- Referee
- Max Burda
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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