Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast · data model
Who wins?
Holstein Kiel to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 62% · bookies 62% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
The three perspectives suggest a tight match, with the home side having a slight edge based on recent form and head-to-head history. While the coach highlights the attacking potential of both teams, the room emphasizes the pressure of the league table.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Holstein Kiel's chances are better than the bookmakers say. The Dressing Room thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHolstein Kiel's strong home form contrasts with Dynamo Dresden's high-scoring away attack.
Holstein Kiel has scored 1.25 per game at home and conceded 1.38 per game. Dynamo Dresden averages 1.50 goals scored per game away, but concedes 1.88 goals per game overall.
Holstein Kiel: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe points gap between the two sides suggests a high-stakes encounter for both clubs.
Dynamo Dresden sits 11th with 8 points from 8 games, while Holstein Kiel is 18th with 5 points from 8 games. Both sides have a short rest of 7 and 8 days respectively.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe historical dominance of Holstein Kiel at home may suggest the published draw probability is too high.
In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Holstein Kiel has won 4 times. Their home run of 4 draws in the last 4 matches is notable, though their season over 2.5 goals rate is only 38%.
Holstein Kiel: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Holstein Kiel are slight favourites at 41%, with Dynamo Dresden on 34% and the draw on 25%. Holstein Kiel are 18th and Dynamo Dresden 11th in 2. Bundesliga. In their last five league games, Holstein Kiel won none and Dynamo Dresden one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Holstein Kiel win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Dynamo Dresden win or draw
- 59%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 62%
- 4+ goals
- 39%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 63%
- No
- 37%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Holstein Kiel and 1.5 from Dynamo Dresden. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%), 2–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 25% | 30% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #981 | |
| 2 | 41% | 25% | 34% | Prices moved | #1291 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Holstein Kiel: last 6
DLDLDL · 3 scored, 7 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Hertha BSC | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Eintracht Braunschweig | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs VfL Osnabrück | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | at 1. FC Heidenheim | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs 1. FC Nürnberg | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | at 1. FC Magdeburg | 0–2 | L |
Last 4 at home: DDDD
Dynamo Dresden: last 6
WDLDLL · 10 scored, 12 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs 1. FC Magdeburg | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at VfL Osnabrück | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Hertha BSC | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Eintracht Braunschweig | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs VfL Bochum | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | at 1. FC Heidenheim | 3–5 | L |
Last 5 away: DDLWL
Season stats
| Holstein Kiel | Dynamo Dresden | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.88 | Goals scored per game | 1.38 |
| 1.38 | Goals conceded per game | 1.88 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.25 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game away | 1.50 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 62% |
| 12% | Clean sheets | 25% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 12% |
League matches only, 8 games each.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | +0 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | -1 | 10 | DDLDW |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | -4 | 9 | LWLDD |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | -1 | 8 | WDLDL |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | -4 | 8 | DLLLD |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | -7 | 8 | LWDLD |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | -7 | 8 | LDLWL |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | -9 | 8 | LWLLL |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | -10 | 8 | DLWLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Holstein Kiel won 4, Dynamo Dresden 1, 1 draw; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May 2026 | Dynamo Dresden | 2–1 | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Holstein Kiel | 2–1 | Dynamo Dresden | 2. Bundesliga |
| 16 Apr 2022 | Dynamo Dresden | 0–0 | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga |
| 5 Nov 2021 | Holstein Kiel | 2–1 | Dynamo Dresden | 2. Bundesliga |
| 18 Jun 2020 | Holstein Kiel | 2–0 | Dynamo Dresden | 2. Bundesliga |
| 30 Nov 2019 | Dynamo Dresden | 1–2 | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga |
Match context
- Rest days
- Holstein Kiel 8Dynamo Dresden 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Holstein Kiel 1 · Dynamo Dresden 1
- Referee
- Timo Gerach
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
