SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 39%)
Goals call3+ goals 62% · bookies 62%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published 39-25-36 split: these are one-point-apart midtable sides with equal rest and no clear edge. The coach sees both-teams-score logic in Fürth's 67% rate, while the sceptic notes both sides sit over 2.5 in just 44% of matches, making the 62% goals line the one number worth questioning.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky-but-lively attacks point to goals on both sides
Fürth concede 1.78 per game with clean sheets in just 11% of matches, while both teams have scored in 67% of their games. With the league at 3.02 goals per match, a shared-goals game fits.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMidtable neighbours, both desperate for three points
Fürth sit 12th on 9 points, Kiel 13th on 8 - one point apart with near-identical records. Fürth have lost four of six recently, Kiel five without a win before beating Dresden. Both had 7 days' rest, so freshness is equal and neither can afford to sit back.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look fair, but the over may be a touch generous
The 39-25-36 split matches two evenly matched sides, and expected goals of 1.6 each support it. But both teams are over 2.5 in only 44% of matches, Kiel fail to score in 44% and average 0.50 away, so 62% for three-plus goals looks slightly high to me.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are slight favourites at 39%, with Holstein Kiel on 36% and the draw on 25%. SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 12th and Holstein Kiel 13th in 2. Bundesliga. In their last five league games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth won one and Holstein Kiel one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth win or draw
- 64%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Holstein Kiel win or draw
- 61%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 62%
- 4+ goals
- 40%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 64%
- No
- 36%
We expect about 1.6 goals from SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.6 from Holstein Kiel. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%), 2–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% | 25% | 28% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1850 | |
| 2 | 39% | 25% | 36% | Prices moved | #2117 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: last 6
LWLDDL · 5 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | at VfL Osnabrück | 0–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Eintracht Braunschweig | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Hertha BSC | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs 1. FC Magdeburg | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | at VfL Bochum | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs 1. FC Heidenheim | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: WDLLL
Holstein Kiel: last 6
WDLDLD · 6 scored, 5 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Dynamo Dresden | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Oct | vs Hertha BSC | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Eintracht Braunschweig | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs VfL Osnabrück | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | at 1. FC Heidenheim | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs 1. FC Nürnberg | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: LLLWD
Season stats
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Holstein Kiel | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 1.11 |
| 1.78 | Goals conceded per game | 1.22 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.60 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game away | 0.50 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 44% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 44% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | -1 | 11 | LWWDL |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | +0 | 10 | WLWLD |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | -1 | 10 | DDLDW |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | -4 | 9 | LWLDD |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | -1 | 8 | WDLDL |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | -4 | 8 | DLLLD |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | -7 | 8 | LWDLD |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | -7 | 8 | LDLWL |
Match context
- Rest days
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth 7Holstein Kiel 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 · Holstein Kiel 1
- Goals in this league
- 2. Bundesliga average: 3.02 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
