FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
St. Pauli to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 59% · bookies 59%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three lean towards a competitive match with goals: the coach sees two attacks and defences that both usually score, the dressing room notes St. Pauli's draw-heavy resilience against a strong Nürnberg side, and the sceptic thinks the home edge is slightly overstated.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks a draw is underrated; The Sceptic thinks 1. FC Nürnberg are underrated.
The Coach
styles in the numbersNürnberg's attack meets St. Pauli's stubborn defence - goals likely at both ends
St. Pauli keep it tight (1.00 conceded per game, 33% clean sheets) but score just 1.22 per game. Nürnberg average 2.33 scored and 2.60 away, yet concede 1.33. Both teams score in 67% of each side's matches, and Nürnberg games go over 2.5 goals 67% of the time.
St. Pauli: slightly overrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSecond-placed Nürnberg arrive fresh, but St. Pauli's draw habit makes them hard to beat
Nürnberg sit 2nd on 18 points from 9 games; St. Pauli are 7th on 12. St. Pauli have drawn six of nine and lost just once, with six unbeaten in all competitions. Both had one game in 14 days, so rest is equal - Nürnberg's momentum meets a side who rarely lose.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe home price looks a touch generous given Nürnberg's away scoring record
St. Pauli's last four home games read W W L D with only 5 scored, yet they're priced at 45%. Nürnberg have won twice and drawn three of five away, scoring 9. With 60% both-teams-score and a 3.02 league goals-per-match environment, the 59% over line looks about right.
1. Nürnberg: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
FC St. Pauli are favourites at 45%, with 1. FC Nürnberg on 29% and the draw on 26%. FC St. Pauli are 7th and 1. FC Nürnberg 2nd in 2. Bundesliga. In their last five league games, FC St. Pauli won two and 1. FC Nürnberg two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- FC St. Pauli win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- 1. FC Nürnberg win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.7 goals from FC St. Pauli and 1.3 from 1. FC Nürnberg. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% | 24% | 33% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1852 | |
| 2 | 45% | 26% | 29% | Prices moved | #2118 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
FC St. Pauli: last 6
DDWDWD · 7 scored, 4 conceded
| 23 Oct | at SV Darmstadt 98 | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Hannover 96 | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Karlsruher SC | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Energie Cottbus | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs VfL Wolfsburg | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sep | at Arminia Bielefeld | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 at home: WWLD
1. FC Nürnberg: last 6
LDDWWD · 10 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Oct | at Energie Cottbus | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs VfL Wolfsburg | 4–4 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Karlsruher SC | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Hannover 96 | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Holstein Kiel | 2–2 | D |
Last 5 away: DWDDW
Season stats
| FC St. Pauli | 1. FC Nürnberg | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.22 | Goals scored per game | 2.33 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.33 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 2.60 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 11% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | +12 | 25 | WDWWW |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | +9 | 18 | LDDWW |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | +5 | 18 | WWDWL |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | +9 | 16 | DWDWL |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | +8 | 16 | WLWDW |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | +0 | 15 | DLDDW |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | +2 | 12 | DDWDW |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | -1 | 11 | WLDDL |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | -1 | 11 | LWWDL |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | +0 | 10 | WLWLD |
Match context
- Travel for 1. FC Nürnberg
- 461 km
- Rest days
- FC St. Pauli 81. FC Nürnberg 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: FC St. Pauli 1 · 1. FC Nürnberg 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 5 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- M. Rapp
- FC St. Pauli, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- 2. Bundesliga average: 3.02 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
