Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Tampa Bay Rowdies to win: 75%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 66% · bookies 66%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The main disagreement is goals - the sceptic notes Tampa Bay's 43% over-2.5 rate against a 66% line, so the over is the shakiest published number.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersRowdies' home scoring and clean-sheet record should decide this
Tampa Bay score 2.13 per game at home and keep clean sheets in 53% of matches, while Miami score just 0.93 away and fail to score in 37%. Miami's 57% both-teams-score rate is their main hope of a goal, but the hosts' 0.87 conceded per game suggests they limit that.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTop against 19th, with rest and form both favouring the hosts
Tampa Bay sit 1st on 61 points from 30 games and have won four of their last six, including 2-0 and 1-0 home wins. Miami are 19th on 36 points but arrive with 13 days' rest versus the hosts' 6, and won the last meeting 2-1.
Tampa Bay Rowdies: slightly overrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look fair, but Miami's away run gives pause
Miami won their last three away games before a defeat, and beat Tampa Bay 2-1 recently, yet the market gives them just 11%. Tampa Bay's 43% over-2.5 rate sits below the 66% published over, so the goals line looks slightly high to me.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Tampa Bay Rowdies are clear favourites at 75%, with Miami FC on 11% and the draw on 14%. Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st and Miami FC 19th in the USL Championship. In their last five league games, Tampa Bay Rowdies won three and Miami FC three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Tampa Bay Rowdies win or draw
- 89%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 85%
- Miami FC win or draw
- 25%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 66%
- 4+ goals
- 44%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 2.6 goals from Tampa Bay Rowdies and 0.8 from Miami FC. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 3–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 75% | 15% | 11% | Stats preview | #2065 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Tampa Bay Rowdies: last 6
WWWLDW · 11 scored, 3 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Sporting JAX | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Detroit City | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Indy Eleven | 3–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Miami FC | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | at San Antonio | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Birmingham Legion | 4–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWLWW
Miami FC: last 6
LLWWWW · 11 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Charleston Battery | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Loudoun United | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Tampa Bay Rowdies | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Sep | vs Sporting JAX | 4–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Indy Eleven | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Rhode Island | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: WWWDL
Season stats
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | Miami FC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.73 | Goals scored per game | 1.30 |
| 0.87 | Goals conceded per game | 1.63 |
| 2.13 | Scored per game at home | 1.67 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 0.93 |
| 43% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 40% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 53% | Clean sheets | 23% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 37% |
League matches only, 30 games each.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | +26 | 61 | WWWLD |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 30 | +21 | 53 | WWDLW |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 30 | +11 | 52 | WLWWL |
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 | WWDDW |
| … | |||||
| 16 | Orange County SC | 30 | -10 | 39 | LLLLW |
| 17 | Oakland Roots | 30 | -1 | 38 | LWDDW |
| 18 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | -7 | 36 | LLLWL |
| 19 | Miami FC | 30 | -10 | 36 | LLWWW |
| 20 | Indy Eleven | 30 | -6 | 34 | LLLDL |
| 21 | Loudoun United | 30 | -10 | 31 | WDLWD |
| 22 | Birmingham Legion | 30 | -6 | 30 | LWDWL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Tampa Bay Rowdies 6Miami FC 13
- Matches in the last 14 days: Tampa Bay Rowdies 2 · Miami FC 1
- Goals in this league
- USL Championship average: 2.72 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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