Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Sacramento Republic to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 51% · bookies 51%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The sceptic's note on Tulsa's away draws is the only softening, and the goals market sits right on the published 49% for over 2.5, consistent with a 1.8-0.9 expected-goals split.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think FC Tulsa's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make FC Tulsa favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHome control with Tulsa's away attack too blunt to force a shootout
Sacramento score 1.80 per game at home against Tulsa's 1.20 away, and Tulsa have failed to score in 33% of matches. Tulsa's clean-sheet rate of 40% keeps them in games, but their away run of four goals scored and seven conceded fits a low-scoring home win.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureThe table gap and Sacramento's unbeaten run point to a home win
Tulsa have lost two straight and won once in six. Both had 8 days' rest, so freshness is even, and the table gap should show.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPublished numbers look broadly right, though Tulsa's draw habit deserves respect
The reverse fixture finished 1-1 and Tulsa have drawn four of their last five away, so the 18% away price looks a touch lean; I'd nudge it to 20%. Both teams scored in 57% of Sacramento's games, yet the 48% BTTS and 49% over line look fair given both sides sit around 30% over 2.5.
Tulsa: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Sacramento Republic are favourites at 59%, with FC Tulsa on 18% and the draw on 23%. Sacramento Republic are 4th and FC Tulsa 12th in the USL Championship. In their last five league games, Sacramento Republic won three and FC Tulsa one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Sacramento Republic win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- FC Tulsa win or draw
- 41%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Sacramento Republic and 0.9 from FC Tulsa. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% | 23% | 18% | Stats preview | #2236 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Sacramento Republic: last 6
WWDDWW · 12 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Oakland Roots | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Oct | at El Paso Locomotive | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Colorado Springs | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | at FC Tulsa | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Oct | vs Las Vegas Lights | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | at New Mexico United | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDWDW
FC Tulsa: last 6
LLDDWD · 5 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Colorado Springs | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Oakland Roots | 2–4 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Lexington | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Oct | vs Sacramento Republic | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Oct | vs New Mexico United | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at El Paso Locomotive | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LDDDL
Season stats
| Sacramento Republic | FC Tulsa | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | Goals scored per game | 1.13 |
| 0.93 | Goals conceded per game | 1.03 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.07 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 30% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 30 games each.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | +26 | 61 | WWWLD |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 30 | +21 | 53 | WWDLW |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 30 | +11 | 52 | WLWWL |
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Detroit City | 30 | +13 | 51 | DLWWW |
| 6 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | +10 | 50 | LLWLD |
| 7 | Lexington | 30 | +18 | 48 | DWDWW |
| … | |||||
| 9 | Colorado Springs | 30 | +6 | 47 | WWDDD |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | +3 | 45 | WDWLL |
| 11 | San Antonio | 30 | +2 | 45 | WWDLD |
| 12 | FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | +2 | 43 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Rhode Island | 30 | +9 | 42 | LDWLW |
| 15 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | -1 | 40 | DWWLL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Sacramento Republic 8FC Tulsa 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Sacramento Republic 1 · FC Tulsa 1
- Goals in this league
- USL Championship average: 2.72 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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