El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
El Paso Locomotive to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 51% · bookies 51%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
On goals, the sceptic's note on San Antonio's 40% over-2.5 rate and low away scoring nudges the over just under the published 49%, with both cards agreeing the total line is at or slightly above fair.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersHome edge built on attack, but San Antonio's defence keeps this tight
Both-teams-score sits at 52%, and 2+ goals land at 74% - a low-scoring home win fits the numbers.
San Antonio: slightly overrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureSixth hosts eleventh with little separating them on points
El Paso sit 6th on 50 points from 30 games; San Antonio are 11th on 45, only five back. Both had six days' rest, so freshness is even and the gap is small enough to keep this competitive.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices favour the home side fairly, but the total line looks a touch high
San Antonio's away form reads D L D L W with 3 scored and 4 conceded, and they score just 1.00 away per game - the 28% away price looks about right. But their 40% over-2.5 rate and El Paso's modest home scoring of 1.53 make the 49% over line slightly generous to goals.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
El Paso Locomotive are favourites at 45%, with San Antonio on 28% and the draw on 27%. El Paso Locomotive are 6th and San Antonio 11th in the USL Championship. In their last five league games, El Paso Locomotive won one and San Antonio two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- El Paso Locomotive win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- San Antonio win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.5 goals from El Paso Locomotive and 1.1 from San Antonio. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 27% | 28% | Stats preview | #2067 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
El Paso Locomotive: last 6
LLWLDW · 7 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs New Mexico United | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Sacramento Republic | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Orange County SC | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Lexington | 1–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs FC Tulsa | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Phoenix Rising | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: LLWDW
San Antonio: last 6
WWDLDD · 3 scored, 2 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Orange County SC | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs New Mexico United | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Oakland Roots | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Oct | at Las Vegas Lights | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Tampa Bay Rowdies | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Sacramento Republic | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: DLDLW
Season stats
| El Paso Locomotive | San Antonio | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored per game | 1.07 |
| 1.27 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.53 | Scored per game at home | 1.13 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 23% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 43% |
League matches only, 30 games each.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | New Mexico United | 30 | +11 | 52 | WLWWL |
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Detroit City | 30 | +13 | 51 | DLWWW |
| 6 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | +10 | 50 | LLWLD |
| 7 | Lexington | 30 | +18 | 48 | DWDWW |
| 8 | Louisville City | 30 | +8 | 47 | DWWWD |
| 9 | Colorado Springs | 30 | +6 | 47 | WWDDD |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | +3 | 45 | WDWLL |
| 11 | San Antonio | 30 | +2 | 45 | WWDLD |
| 12 | FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | +2 | 43 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Rhode Island | 30 | +9 | 42 | LDWLW |
Match context
- Rest days
- El Paso Locomotive 6San Antonio 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: El Paso Locomotive 2 · San Antonio 2
- Goals in this league
- USL Championship average: 2.72 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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