New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
New Mexico to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 65% · bookies 65%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published 44-24-31 line, with the Coach and the Sceptic both seeing enough attacking and defensive weakness on both sides to back the 65% over 2.5. The Dressing Room gives New Mexico a slight extra edge from the table and recent run, but nobody strays far from the market.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersTwo leaky attacks point to goals at both ends
New Mexico concede 1.13 a game, Phoenix 1.53, and both sides score 1.50 per game. Both-teams-scored rates of 53% and 67% plus a 2.72 league scoring environment support a lively contest. New Mexico keep clean sheets just 30% of the time, Phoenix only 17%.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTable stakes favour the home side
New Mexico sit 3rd on 52 points from 30 games; Phoenix are 15th on 40. The hosts have won two of their last three, while Phoenix have one win in six. Both had 7 days' rest, so freshness is even, and home form of W W L D L gives New Mexico the edge.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look fair, but the away side scores
The 44-24-31 line matches the data well. With 65% both-teams-scored and 65% over 2.5 published, the totals market looks about right.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
New Mexico United are favourites at 45%, with Phoenix Rising on 31% and the draw on 24%. New Mexico United are 3rd and Phoenix Rising 15th in the USL Championship. In their last five league games, New Mexico United won three and Phoenix Rising two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- New Mexico United win or draw
- 69%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Phoenix Rising win or draw
- 56%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 65%
- 4+ goals
- 43%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 65%
- No
- 35%
We expect about 1.8 goals from New Mexico United and 1.5 from Phoenix Rising. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (7%), 2–2 (7%), 1–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% | 24% | 31% | Stats preview | #2235 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
New Mexico United: last 6
WLWWLL · 8 scored, 7 conceded
| 25 Oct | at El Paso Locomotive | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at San Antonio | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Monterey Bay | 3–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Phoenix Rising | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Oct | at FC Tulsa | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Sacramento Republic | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWLDL
Phoenix Rising: last 6
DWWLLL · 11 scored, 14 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Lexington | 3–3 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Orange County SC | 3–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Las Vegas Lights | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Oct | at New Mexico United | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | at Oakland Roots | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs El Paso Locomotive | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLDD
Season stats
| New Mexico United | Phoenix Rising | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.50 |
| 1.13 | Goals conceded per game | 1.53 |
| 1.73 | Scored per game at home | 1.93 |
| 1.27 | Scored per game away | 1.07 |
| 53% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 53% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 17% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 20% |
League matches only, 30 games each.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | +26 | 61 | WWWLD |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 30 | +21 | 53 | WWDLW |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 30 | +11 | 52 | WLWWL |
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Detroit City | 30 | +13 | 51 | DLWWW |
| 6 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | +10 | 50 | LLWLD |
| … | |||||
| 12 | FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | +2 | 43 | WLDLD |
| 14 | Rhode Island | 30 | +9 | 42 | LDWLW |
| 15 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | -1 | 40 | DWWLL |
| 16 | Orange County SC | 30 | -10 | 39 | LLLLW |
| 17 | Oakland Roots | 30 | -1 | 38 | LWDDW |
| 18 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | -7 | 36 | LLLWL |
Match context
- Rest days
- New Mexico United 7Phoenix Rising 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: New Mexico United 1 · Phoenix Rising 1
- Goals in this league
- USL Championship average: 2.72 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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