Lexington vs Colorado Springs prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Lexington to win: 48%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 56%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The published numbers look broadly right: Lexington's 48% home lean is backed by form and scoring rates, while Colorado Springs' mean run keeps them in the draw conversation. The main soft spot is the 56% over line - five straight lows in the visitors' matches argue slightly under. Evenly matched on the table, but the home side's firepower edges it.
What our AI analysts say
Both analysts think Lexington's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersLexington's firepower at home against Colorado Springs' tight away defence makes this a scorer-versus-shutout contest
Lexington average 1.90 goals scored per game, including 1.93 away from home, and have kept 33% clean sheets; Colorado Springs concede 1.27 per game and have failed to score in 30% of matches.
Lexington: slightly underrated
Low The Dressing Room
the table and pressureOne point apart, and home form may decide which way the swing goes
This is about as tight as it gets: 48 points against 47 from 30 games each, sitting 7th and 9th. Both teams are in form - Lexington unbeaten in six with five wins or draws, Colorado Springs unbeaten in six too.
Lexington: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Lexington are favourites at 48%, with Colorado Springs on 27% and the draw on 25%. Lexington are 7th and Colorado Springs 9th in the USL Championship. In their last five league games, Lexington won three and Colorado Springs two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Lexington win or draw
- 73%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Colorado Springs win or draw
- 52%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Lexington and 1.2 from Colorado Springs. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% | 25% | 27% | Stats preview | #2234 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Lexington: last 6
DWDWWW · 20 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Phoenix Rising | 3–3 | D |
| 18 Oct | at Las Vegas Lights | 5–3 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs FC Tulsa | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs El Paso Locomotive | 3–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Monterey Bay | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Orange County SC | 6–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWLW
Colorado Springs: last 6
WWDDDD · 4 scored, 1 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs FC Tulsa | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Monterey Bay | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Sacramento Republic | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | vs Oakland Roots | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Detroit City | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs New Mexico United | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: WDDWW
Season stats
| Lexington | Colorado Springs | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.90 | Goals scored per game | 1.47 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded per game | 1.27 |
| 1.87 | Scored per game at home | 1.67 |
| 1.93 | Scored per game away | 1.27 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 47% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 53% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 23% | Failed to score | 30% |
League matches only, 30 games each.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 | WWDDW |
| 5 | Detroit City | 30 | +13 | 51 | DLWWW |
| 6 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | +10 | 50 | LLWLD |
| 7 | Lexington | 30 | +18 | 48 | DWDWW |
| 8 | Louisville City | 30 | +8 | 47 | DWWWD |
| 9 | Colorado Springs | 30 | +6 | 47 | WWDDD |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | +3 | 45 | WDWLL |
| 11 | San Antonio | 30 | +2 | 45 | WWDLD |
| 12 | FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 | LLDDW |
Match context
- Rest days
- Lexington 7Colorado Springs 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Lexington 1 · Colorado Springs 1
- Goals in this league
- USL Championship average: 2.72 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
