Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Louisville to win: 58%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 52% · bookies 52%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings lean Louisville City, with the sceptic closest to the published prices and the coach the most confident after a four-game winning burst. Nobody fancies Pittsburgh's away record of two points in five.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersA home side scoring freely at the ground meets visitors who struggle for goals on the road.
Pittsburgh concede just 1.00 per game, so a low-scoring home win fits better than the 47% both-teams-score rate.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureTwo points and two places apart, but Louisville's four-match winning burst lifts the home side.
Louisville sit 8th on 47 points, Pittsburgh 10th on 45 from the same 30 games, so mid-table pride is at stake. Louisville have won four of the last six; Pittsburgh two of six. Both had five days' rest, though Louisville have played three games in 14 days to Pittsburgh's two.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPrices look fair on the top line, but the over may be a touch rich given Pittsburgh's low tempo away.
Louisville's 53% over rate versus Pittsburgh's 40%, and a 47% both-teams-score rate, suggest goals lean under the 48% over line.
Louisville: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Louisville City are favourites at 58%, with Pittsburgh Riverhounds on 18% and the draw on 24%. Louisville City are 8th and Pittsburgh Riverhounds 10th in the USL Championship. In their last five league games, Louisville City won three and Pittsburgh Riverhounds two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Louisville City win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds win or draw
- 42%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 48%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Louisville City and 0.9 from Pittsburgh Riverhounds. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 24% | 18% | Stats preview | #2068 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Louisville City: last 6
DWWWDW · 12 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Detroit City | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Oct | at Sporting JAX | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Indy Eleven | 4–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Charleston Battery | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Sep | at Hartford Athletic | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Loudoun United | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWLD
Pittsburgh Riverhounds: last 6
WDWLLW · 6 scored, 5 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Birmingham Legion | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Rhode Island | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Hartford Athletic | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | at Orange County SC | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Detroit City | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Loudoun United | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: DLLDL
Season stats
| Louisville City | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.70 | Goals scored per game | 1.10 |
| 1.43 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 1.47 | Scored per game at home | 1.27 |
| 1.93 | Scored per game away | 0.93 |
| 53% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| 63% | Both teams scored | 43% |
| 27% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 37% |
League matches only, 30 games each.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Detroit City | 30 | +13 | 51 | DLWWW |
| 6 | El Paso Locomotive | 30 | +10 | 50 | LLWLD |
| 7 | Lexington | 30 | +18 | 48 | DWDWW |
| 8 | Louisville City | 30 | +8 | 47 | DWWWD |
| 9 | Colorado Springs | 30 | +6 | 47 | WWDDD |
| 10 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | +3 | 45 | WDWLL |
| 11 | San Antonio | 30 | +2 | 45 | WWDLD |
| 12 | FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 | LLDDW |
| 13 | Hartford Athletic | 30 | +2 | 43 | WLDLD |
Match context
- Rest days
- Louisville City 5Pittsburgh Riverhounds 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Louisville City 3 · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2
- Goals in this league
- USL Championship average: 2.72 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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