Kocaelispor vs Caykur Rizespor prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Kocaelispor 37%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 50%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land close to the published numbers: a near even match with a slight home lean from table position and rest, and goals around the line. The 37-26-37 split looks fair, and the Coach and Sceptic both nudge over 2.5 marginally above its published 50%.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Kocaelispor's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersBoth attacks can fire, but Rizespor's leaky defence tips it toward a lively home win.
Rizespor concede 1.67 per game and keep clean sheets in only 22% of matches, while Kocaelispor score 1.50 per game at home. Rizespor still manage 1.60 per game away, and both teams score in 54% of league matches, so chances at both ends look likely.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureHome points and a fresher leg give Kocaelispor the edge in an even match.
Kocaelispor sit 7th on 15 points, Rizespor 13th on 10. The hosts have won three of their last four at home; the visitors have lost five of nine. Rizespor also arrive on four days' rest after an 890 km trip, against hosts with a full week between games.
Kocaelispor: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look right; if anything the goal line is a shade low.
With 2+ goals in 75% of matches and both teams scoring in 54%, over 2.5 at 50% may be a touch conservative.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Kocaelispor are slight favourites at 37%, with Caykur Rizespor on 37% and the draw on 26%. Kocaelispor are 7th and Caykur Rizespor 13th in the Süper Lig. In their last five league games, Kocaelispor won two and Caykur Rizespor one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Kocaelispor win or draw
- 63%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Caykur Rizespor win or draw
- 63%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Kocaelispor and 1.3 from Caykur Rizespor. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% | 26% | 37% | Stats preview | #1808 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Kocaelispor: last 6
WLLWLW · 7 scored, 6 conceded
| 23 Oct | at Alanyaspor | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Göztepe | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Beşiktaş | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Gaziantep FK | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Galatasaray | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Samsunspor | 1–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: LWWW
Caykur Rizespor: last 6
LLLDWL · 8 scored, 12 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs Trabzonspor | 3–4 | L |
| 16 Oct | at Çorum FK | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Fenerbahçe | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Göztepe | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Eyüpspor | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Sep | vs Alanyaspor | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: LDWWW
Season stats
| Kocaelispor | Caykur Rizespor | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.22 | Goals scored per game | 1.22 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.67 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 0.75 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.60 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| 44% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 9 | +8 | 18 | WLWLW |
| 5 | Fenerbahçe | 9 | +15 | 16 | LWWWD |
| 6 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | +4 | 16 | WWLDW |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | +2 | 15 | WLLWL |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | -4 | 14 | WWDWL |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 9 | +3 | 13 | LWWLW |
| 10 | Göztepe | 9 | +3 | 12 | WWWDD |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 9 | -2 | 12 | LLDWD |
| 12 | Başakşehir | 9 | -2 | 11 | LWDWL |
| 13 | Caykur Rizespor | 9 | -4 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 14 | Konyaspor | 9 | -3 | 8 | WLDDW |
| 15 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | -6 | 8 | LLLLD |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 9 | -11 | 8 | LLDLL |
Match context
- Travel for Caykur Rizespor
- 890 km
- Rest days
- Kocaelispor 7Caykur Rizespor 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: Kocaelispor 2 · Caykur Rizespor 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 4 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Süper Lig average: 2.90 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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