Istanbul Basaksehir vs Samsunspor prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Istanbul Basaksehir to win: 54%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 57% · bookies 57%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Istanbul Basaksehir are favourites at 54%, with Samsunspor on 22% and the draw on 24%. Istanbul Basaksehir are 12th and Samsunspor 17th in the Süper Lig. In their last five league games, Istanbul Basaksehir won two and Samsunspor none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Istanbul Basaksehir win or draw
- 78%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Samsunspor win or draw
- 47%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 57%
- 4+ goals
- 34%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Istanbul Basaksehir and 1.1 from Samsunspor. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 3–1 (6%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% | 20% | 17% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1807 | |
| 2 | 53% | 24% | 22% | Prices moved | #2185 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Istanbul Basaksehir: last 6
LWDWLL · 8 scored, 11 conceded
| 26 Oct | at Beşiktaş | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Gaziantep FK | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Konyaspor | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 4–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | at Amed | 0–5 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs Galatasaray | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: WWLDW
Samsunspor: last 6
LLLLLL · 3 scored, 16 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Amed | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | at Kasımpaşa | 1–4 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Trabzonspor | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | at Erzurumspor FK | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Çorum FK | 1–5 | L |
| 6 Sep | at Kocaelispor | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 away: LLLW
Season stats
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Samsunspor | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 0.89 |
| 1.56 | Goals conceded per game | 2.33 |
| 2.20 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.25 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 56% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| 44% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 11% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 44% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Çorum FK | 9 | +3 | 13 | LWWLW |
| 10 | Göztepe | 9 | +3 | 12 | WWWDD |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 9 | -2 | 12 | LLDWD |
| 12 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 9 | -2 | 11 | LWDWL |
| 13 | Rizespor | 9 | -4 | 10 | LLLDW |
| 14 | Konyaspor | 9 | -3 | 8 | WLDDW |
| 15 | Gaziantep FK | 9 | -6 | 8 | LLLLD |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 9 | -11 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 9 | -13 | 4 | LLLLL |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 9 | -21 | 3 | LLLLL |
Match context
- Travel for Samsunspor
- 619 km
- Rest days
- Istanbul Basaksehir 5Samsunspor 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Istanbul Basaksehir 2 · Samsunspor 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 18°C · wind 11 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Süper Lig average: 2.90 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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