Fenerbahçe vs Goztepe prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Fenerbahçe to win: 73%, about 3 in 4
Goals call3+ goals 67% · bookies 67%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
Goztepe's away scoring keeps both-teams-score live, but fatigue is the only real doubt over the hosts.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Goztepe's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Goztepe favourites.
The Coach
styles in the numbersFenerbahce's home scoring machine should outgun a leaky Goztepe defence.
Fenerbahce score 4.00 per game at home and keep clean sheets 56% of the time, while Goztepe concede 1.78 per game with only 22% clean sheets. Goztepe do score 2.60 per game away, so both teams scoring at 54% is plausible, but the hosts' firepower points to a high-scoring home win.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureFenerbahce's heavier schedule is the only real brake on a home win.
Fenerbahce sit 5th on 16 points from 9 games, three points clear of 10th-placed Goztepe on 12. The hosts have just 4 days rest after a demanding run including a 0-6 loss at Aston Villa, while Goztepe arrive with three straight wins and 6 days rest.
Goztepe: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe prices look about right, though the total may be a touch high.
Fenerbahce at 74% matches their 23-8 goal record and home form of 15 scored in 5, but their last two league games were wins and the Champions League losses show vulnerability. Goztepe's away record (W W D L D, 13 scored) and 67% both-teams-score rate argue the 54% BTTS number is fair.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Fenerbahçe are clear favourites at 73%, with Goztepe on 11% and the draw on 16%. Fenerbahçe are 5th and Goztepe 10th in the Süper Lig. In their last five league games, Fenerbahçe won three and Goztepe three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Fenerbahçe win or draw
- 89%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 84%
- Goztepe win or draw
- 26%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 86%
- 3+ goals
- 67%
- 4+ goals
- 45%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 2.6 goals from Fenerbahçe and 0.9 from Goztepe. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (9%), 3–0 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 3–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 69% | 16% | 15% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1793 | |
| 2 | 74% | 16% | 11% | Prices moved | #2099 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Fenerbahçe: last 6
LDWLWW · 17 scored, 10 conceded
| 26 Oct | at Galatasaray | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Oct | vs Slavia Praha UEFA Champions League | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Alanyaspor | 3–0 | W |
| 14 Oct | at Aston Villa UEFA Champions League | 0–6 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Rizespor | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Eyüpspor | 8–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWDL
Goztepe: last 6
WWWDDL · 14 scored, 9 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Çorum FK | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Kocaelispor | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Oct | at Eyüpspor | 4–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Rizespor | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | at Alanyaspor | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Sep | vs Gaziantep FK | 2–4 | L |
Last 5 away: WWDLD
Season stats
| Fenerbahçe | Goztepe | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.56 | Goals scored per game | 2.11 |
| 0.89 | Goals conceded per game | 1.78 |
| 4.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game away | 2.60 |
| 78% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 78% |
| 44% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 56% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 11% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Amed | 9 | +10 | 20 | WWDWW |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 9 | +14 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 9 | +8 | 18 | WLWLW |
| 5 | Fenerbahçe | 9 | +15 | 16 | LWWWD |
| 6 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | +4 | 16 | WWLDW |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | +2 | 15 | WLLWL |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | -4 | 14 | WWDWL |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 9 | +3 | 13 | LWWLW |
| 10 | Goztepe | 9 | +3 | 12 | WWWDD |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 9 | -2 | 12 | LLDWD |
| 12 | Başakşehir | 9 | -2 | 11 | LWDWL |
| 13 | Rizespor | 9 | -4 | 10 | LLLDW |
Match context
- Travel for Goztepe
- 328 km
- Rest days
- Fenerbahçe 4Goztepe 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Fenerbahçe 2 · Goztepe 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 11 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Süper Lig average: 2.90 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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