Erzurum BB vs Çorum FK prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Erzurum BB 35%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 53% · bookies 53%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
All three readings land on the same page: a genuinely even 35-29-35 contest with only Çorum's higher-scoring profile pushing the goals line slightly up. The table gap of one point and equal rest argue for a tight match, with the over around the published 47%.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
styles in the numbersÇorum's attacking numbers make goals the likeliest storyline in Erzurum.
Erzurum keep clean sheets 44% of the time but fail to score as often. Both-teams-score sits at 52% for the match, and Çorum's openness (1.67 conceded) points to chances at both ends.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureMid-table neighbours with a point between them and no rest edge for either side.
Erzurum are 8th on 14 points, Çorum 9th on 13 from 9 games — one point apart, so both have everything to play for. Erzurum arrive with four wins in six; Çorum's away form reads L W W L D. Equal rest (one game each in 14 days) means no fatigue angle.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe published numbers look broadly right; maybe a shade of away lean.
The published 35-29-35 split looks fair given Erzurum's W3 of last six at home against Çorum's 12 goals scored in five away trips. Over 2.5 at 47% feels about right too: Çorum run at 78% over 2.5 but Erzurum only 44%, and both teams score 52%. No strong case to move more than a shade either way.
Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Erzurum BB are slight favourites at 35%, with Çorum FK on 35% and the draw on 30%. Erzurum BB are 8th and Çorum FK 9th in the Süper Lig. In their last five league games, Erzurum BB won three and Çorum FK three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Erzurum BB win or draw
- 65%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Çorum FK win or draw
- 65%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 72%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 25%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Erzurum BB and 1.3 from Çorum FK. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (10%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% | 29% | 35% | Stats preview | #1935 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Erzurum BB: last 6
WWDWLW · 7 scored, 4 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Gaziantep FK | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Eyüpspor | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Alanyaspor | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Samsunspor | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Beşiktaş | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Konyaspor | 1–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: WWWL
Çorum FK: last 6
LWWLWW · 14 scored, 6 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Göztepe | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Oct | vs Rizespor | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Gaziantep FK | 3–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Alanyaspor | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Samsunspor | 5–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Eyüpspor | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LWWLD
Season stats
| Erzurum BB | Çorum FK | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.89 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 1.67 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 2.40 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 78% |
| 22% | Both teams scored | 56% |
| 44% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 44% | Failed to score | 22% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fenerbahçe | 9 | +15 | 16 | LWWWD |
| 6 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | +4 | 16 | WWLDW |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | +2 | 15 | WLLWL |
| 8 | Erzurum BB | 9 | -4 | 14 | WWDWL |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 9 | +3 | 13 | LWWLW |
| 10 | Göztepe | 9 | +3 | 12 | WWWDD |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 9 | -2 | 12 | LLDWD |
| 12 | Başakşehir | 9 | -2 | 11 | LWDWL |
Match context
- Travel for Çorum FK
- 541 km
- Rest days
- Erzurum BB 6Çorum FK 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Erzurum BB 1 · Çorum FK 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Goals in this league
- Süper Lig average: 2.90 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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