Kasımpaşa vs Besiktas prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Besiktas to win: 62%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 57% · bookies 57%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Besiktas are clear favourites at 62%, with Kasımpaşa on 17% and the draw on 21%. Kasımpaşa are 6th and Besiktas 4th in the Süper Lig. In their last five league games, Kasımpaşa won three and Besiktas three.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Kasımpaşa win or draw
- 38%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 79%
- Besiktas win or draw
- 84%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 57%
- 4+ goals
- 35%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 0.9 goals from Kasımpaşa and 2.0 from Besiktas. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–2 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 0–3 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% | 25% | 33% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1999 | |
| 2 | 16% | 21% | 62% | Prices moved | #2224 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Kasımpaşa: last 6
WWLDWD · 10 scored, 7 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Eyüpspor | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Samsunspor | 4–1 | W |
| 9 Oct | at Galatasaray | 1–3 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs Konyaspor | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | at Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Amed | 2–2 | D |
Last 4 at home: WDDD
Besiktas: last 6
WDLWWL · 11 scored, 10 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs Başakşehir | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs Crystal Palace UEFA Europa League | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Oct | at Trabzonspor | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | at 1899 Hoffenheim UEFA Europa League | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Kocaelispor | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Amed | 2–3 | L |
Last 5 away: LWLWL
Season stats
| Kasımpaşa | Besiktas | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.44 | Goals scored per game | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.11 |
| 1.75 | Scored per game at home | 2.80 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 44% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 22% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 9 | +7 | 22 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Amed | 9 | +10 | 20 | WWDWW |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 9 | +14 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Besiktas | 9 | +8 | 18 | WLWLW |
| 5 | Fenerbahçe | 9 | +15 | 16 | LWWWD |
| 6 | Kasımpaşa | 9 | +4 | 16 | WWLDW |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 9 | +2 | 15 | WLLWL |
| 8 | Erzurumspor FK | 9 | -4 | 14 | WWDWL |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 9 | +3 | 13 | LWWLW |
Match context
- Travel for Besiktas
- 0 km
- Rest days
- Kasımpaşa 8Besiktas 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Kasımpaşa 1 · Besiktas 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 16°C · wind 11 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- V. Italiano
- Besiktas, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- Süper Lig average: 2.90 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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