Solihull Moors vs Carlisle United prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Carlisle to win: 63%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 66% · bookies 67% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only a single point from away to draw. The Sceptic's 3-point shift towards Solihull was not followed, because it rests on regression and desperation rather than any concrete fact the market is missing.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks Carlisle United are underrated; The Sceptic thinks Solihull Moors are underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsCarlisle United's defensive stability and league position give them the advantage.
Solihull Moors is set up in a 4-4-1-1 formation, while Carlisle United deploys a compact 5-3-2. Solihull needs a win to climb out of the drop zone, while Carlisle seeks a victory to enter the top ten. The match is being played in a high-scoring competition environment.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureRelegation-plagued Solihull host a Carlisle side on a strong away run and higher in form and morale.
Solihull sit 23rd with 7 points and a -22 goal difference, losing four of their last five league games including a 5-0 defeat. Carlisle are 14th with 17 points and have won three of five. A Carlisle win lifts them into the top ten; Solihull are desperate to climb out of the drop zone.
Carlisle: slightly underrated
Low✓ Right The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongCarlisle's class gap looks real but the price already says so
Model sees 59% away; the market's 63.6% already goes further, so prices look right.
Solihull Moors: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Solihull Moors, 23rd with 7 points, host a Carlisle United side 14th on 17 points. Both clubs list no absences in our feed, though detailed team news is sparse. Our numbers stay close to the market, with a slight lean to the draw.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Solihull Moors win or draw
- 37%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- Carlisle United win or draw
- 83%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 66%
- 4+ goals
- 44%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.1 goals from Solihull Moors and 2.3 from Carlisle United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 0–2 (9%), 1–1 (8%), 0–1 (8%), 1–3 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 17% | 19% | 64% | 67% |
| Goals model | 20% | 21% | 59% | 70% |
| AI analysts | 20% | 21% | 60% | 69% |
| Our forecast | 17% | 20% | 63% | 66% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because the gap in league position and form is already fully reflected in the prices, and no team-news or off-pitch factor materially changes the picture.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Solihull Moors: last 6
LWLWLW · 8 scored, 12 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Kidderminster Harriers FA Cup | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Everton U21 National League Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Worthing | 0–5 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Newcastle United U21 National League Cup | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs FC Halifax Town | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Sep | at Woking | 4–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWLLW
Carlisle United: last 6
WDWWLL · 9 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Tamworth FA Cup | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Kidderminster Harriers | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Aldershot Town | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Sep | at AFC Fylde | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Woking | 2–5 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Eastleigh | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: WWLLD
Season stats
| Solihull Moors | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 1.77 |
| 2.69 | Goals conceded per game | 1.54 |
| 0.57 | Scored per game at home | 2.14 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 69% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 54% |
| 62% | Both teams scored | 77% |
| 8% | Clean sheets | 15% |
| 31% | Failed to score | 15% |
| 1.77 | Yellow cards per game | 1.77 |
League matches only, 13 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Solihull Moors | Carlisle United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC Halifax Town | 14 | +7 | 21 | DWWDL |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | +6 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | -5 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 11 | Carlisle United | 14 | +4 | 20 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | +2 | 20 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | +1 | 18 | WLWLW |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | +1 | 18 | LLLLW |
| … | |||||
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | -9 | 14 | LWWLW |
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | -10 | 12 | LLLDL |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | -7 | 10 | LLLWL |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | -23 | 7 | LLLWL |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | -23 | 4 | LLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Solihull Moors won 0, Carlisle United 0, 2 draws; 4.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2026 | Solihull Moors | 3–3 | Carlisle United | National League |
| 19 Aug 2025 | Carlisle United | 1–1 | Solihull Moors | National League |
Team news: lineups Expected
No reliable expected lineup yet. Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kick-off.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
No confirmed absences reported.
Key facts
- Solihull Moors sit 23rd in the National League with 7 points from 13 games.[2]
- Solihull have won just one of seven home league games this season (W1 D0 L6).[2]
- Solihull lost 5-0 at Worthing in their most recent league match on 10 October.[2][4]
- Carlisle United are 14th with 17 points from 13 games.[2]
- Carlisle beat Tamworth 2-1 in the FA Cup on 17 October.[2][5]
- Solihull have signed goalkeeper Sam Johnson on loan from FC Halifax Town until 3 January.[4]
- A win would move Carlisle into the top ten, while Solihull need points to climb out of the drop zone.[1]
Sources
- solihullmoorsfc.co.uk – MAN Commercial Protection Sponsor Match Ball for Carlisle United Fixture - Solihull Moors FC (2026-10-23)
- bbc.co.uk – Solihull Moors v Carlisle United: National League stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-23)
- bbc.co.uk – Solihull sign Halifax goalkeeper Johnson on loan (2026-10-23)
- bbc.co.uk – Four sides reach round one of FA Cup for first time (2026-10-17)
- bbc.co.uk – Richardson backs himself to be one of league's best (2026-10-19)
Off the pitch
- Defender Kenton Richardson has spoken about a frustrating spell at Carlisle that included a minor injury, though our feed lists no current absence.[7]
Match context
- Stadium
- ARMCO Arena, Solihull, West Midlands
- 5,500 seats · grass
- Travel for Carlisle United
- 286 km
- Rest days
- Solihull Moors 7Carlisle United 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Solihull Moors 2 · Carlisle United 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 30 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- James Quinn
- Solihull Moors, since Jul 2025
- Mark Hughes
- Carlisle United, since Aug 2025
- Goals in this league
- National League average: 3.10 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
