Gateshead vs Tamworth prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour forecast
Who wins?
Tamworth to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 63% · bookies 63%
Not graded: the match did not take place.
The Verdict
Our numbers stay exactly at the bookmakers': Gateshead's slump under a caretaker is already priced in, and Tamworth's five defeats in seven away games offset their better form. The Dressing Room's 4-point shift toward Tamworth was not followed, because Tamworth's own away record caps how far the away win can reasonably rise.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Tamworth's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsTamworth's fuller rest and settled setup edge a caretaker-hosted Gateshead side in this lower-table meeting. (under.
No injury or suspension information is available for either side, so availability cannot separate them. Gateshead are under caretaker coach Ben Clark after Lee Cattermole's 4 October departure, adding lineup and tactical uncertainty for the hosts.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureCrisis-hit Gateshead's seven-loss run hands Tamworth the edge on the road.
Gateshead sit 24th with 4 points from 13 games and seven straight National League losses, under a caretaker after the manager left. Tamworth are 18th with three wins in their last five. Both sides exited the FA Cup 4QR recently.
Tamworth: slightly underrated
Low The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongTamworth favoured, but their away wobbles may leave the home/draw side slightly underpriced here.
Market makes Tamworth ~59% away favourites; the statistical model has it 50-26-24 with expected goals 1.36-1.95 and over 2.5 at 64%, close to the 63% offered. H2H is close at 3-2 in Tamworth's favour over the last five.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Bottom-placed Gateshead host 18th-placed Tamworth with first-team coach Ben Clark still caretaker after Lee Cattermole's departure. Tamworth bring the better recent league form but have lost five of seven away games. Neither side has reported team news.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Gateshead win or draw
- 41%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- Tamworth win or draw
- 79%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 83%
- 3+ goals
- 63%
- 4+ goals
- 41%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 60%
- No
- 40%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Gateshead and 2.1 from Tamworth. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–2 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 0–1 (8%), 1–3 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 21% | 20% | 59% | 63% |
| Goals model | 26% | 24% | 50% | 64% |
| AI analysts | 23% | 23% | 54% | 63% |
| Our forecast | 21% | 20% | 59% | 63% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay at the bookmakers' level because Gateshead's collapse is already fully priced into the market, while Tamworth's poor away record offsets their form advantage. With no team news for either side, there is no availability factor to justify a deviation.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21% | 20% | 59% | First analysis | #674 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 1 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Gateshead: last 6
LDDLLL · 3 scored, 13 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Stafford Rangers FA Cup | 0–5 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Stafford Rangers FA Cup | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Wolves U21 National League Cup | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at FC Halifax Town | 1–4 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Worthing | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Sep | vs Altrincham | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: DDLLL
Tamworth: last 6
LLWWWL · 7 scored, 9 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Carlisle FA Cup | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Barrow | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Leeds United U21 National League Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Hartlepool | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Sep | vs Sutton Utd | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Aldershot Town | 1–5 | L |
Last 5 away: LWLLL
Season stats
| Gateshead | Tamworth | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.62 | Goals scored per game | 1.62 |
| 2.38 | Goals conceded per game | 2.31 |
| 0.83 | Scored per game at home | 1.83 |
| 0.43 | Scored per game away | 1.43 |
| 62% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 85% |
| 46% | Both teams scored | 85% |
| 8% | Clean sheets | 15% |
| 46% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 2.08 | Yellow cards per game | 2.00 |
League matches only, 13 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Gateshead | Tamworth |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | -3 | 15 | LDDLD |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | -6 | 15 | WLLDW |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | -6 | 15 | WWLLL |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | -9 | 14 | LWWLW |
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | -10 | 12 | LLLDL |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | -7 | 10 | LLLWL |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 14 | -23 | 7 | LLLWL |
| 24 | Gateshead | 13 | -23 | 4 | LLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Gateshead won 3, Tamworth 3, 0 draws; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Jan 2026 | Tamworth | 3–1 | Gateshead | National League |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Gateshead | 2–1 | Tamworth | National League |
| 22 Mar 2025 | Gateshead | 0–2 | Tamworth | National League |
| 8 Oct 2024 | Tamworth | 2–1 | Gateshead | National League |
| 5 Apr 2014 | Gateshead | 5–0 | Tamworth | National League |
| 21 Sep 2013 | Tamworth | 0–1 | Gateshead | National League |
Team news: lineups Expected
No reliable expected lineup yet. Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kick-off.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
No confirmed absences reported.
Key facts
- Gateshead sit 24th in the National League with 4 points from 13 games, eight points from safety.[1]
- Gateshead have won just one of six home league games this season (W1 D1 L4).[1]
- Tamworth are 18th, two points above the relegation zone, and have won three of their last five league matches.[1]
- Tamworth have lost five of their seven away league games this season (W1 D1 L5).[1]
- Gateshead drew 1-1 with Stafford Rangers in the FA Cup fourth qualifying round, then lost the replay 0-5.[2][3][4]
- Tamworth went out of the FA Cup fourth qualifying round, losing 1-2 at Carlisle.[4]
- Ben Clark continues as Gateshead's caretaker manager after Lee Cattermole left the club on 4 October.[1]
Sources
- news.williamhill.com – Gateshead vs Tamworth Best Bets: 16/1 For Drab Affair Under Friday Floodlights - William Hill News (2026-10-22)
- bbc.co.uk – BBC to show Cray Wanderers v Stockport & Altrincham v Notts County (2026-10-22)
- bbc.co.uk – Leicester to visit Oxford City in FA Cup first round (2026-10-21)
- bbc.co.uk – Four sides reach round one of FA Cup for first time (2026-10-17)
Match context
- Stadium
- Gateshead International Stadium, Gateshead, Tyne and Wear
- 11,750 seats · grass
- Travel for Tamworth
- 258 km
- Rest days
- Gateshead 3Tamworth 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Gateshead 4 · Tamworth 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 7°C · wind 27 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- Alun Armstrong
- Gateshead, since Aug 2025
- A. Peaks
- Tamworth, since Feb 2022
- Goals in this league
- National League average: 3.10 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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