Hartlepool United vs AFC Hornchurch prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Hartlepool to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 55% · bookies 53% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only one point from home to away, because Hornchurch's poor away record offsets their league-position advantage. The Dressing Room's 8-point shift was not followed in full, as the low quality of the available data and Hornchurch's away defeats argue against a large move.
What our AI analysts say
All three think AFC Hornchurch's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength sides; Hornchurch's experienced spine gives them the tactical edge
Both sides report no injuries or suspensions and lineups show no surprises. Hartlepool set up 4-4-2 with Jordan Hugill up front; Hornchurch field an experienced core of Ryan Inniss, Jack Baldwin and Angelo Balanta, plus Myles Weston and Tom Wraight in midfield.
Hornchurch: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureHornchurch's superior league position and form should see them secure the win.
Hartlepool United is 20th in the National League with 12 points from 13 games. AFC Hornchurch sits in 9th place with 21 points.
Hornchurch: clearly underrated
Med✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHornchurch's superior league form and defensive stability give them the edge in this fixture.
Hartlepool has struggled defensively, conceding 19 goals in their 13 league fixtures. Hornchurch has shown strong recent form, including a 4-0 FA Cup win.
Hornchurch: clearly underrated
Med✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Hartlepool United, 20th with 12 points, host ninth-placed AFC Hornchurch in the National League. Both sides have conceded 19 league goals, and neither has reported absences. Hornchurch arrive in better league form but travel poorly, with five away defeats this season.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Hartlepool United win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- AFC Hornchurch win or draw
- 54%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Hartlepool United and 1.2 from AFC Hornchurch. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 48% | 25% | 27% | 53% |
| Goals model | 37% | 30% | 32% | 41% |
| AI analysts | 35% | 29% | 36% | 51% |
| Our forecast | 46% | 25% | 28% | 55% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because the concrete evidence is mixed: Hornchurch are nine points better off and in stronger recent league form, but their away record of five defeats in seven limits how far the away probability can rise, and no team news is available to sharpen the picture.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Hartlepool United: last 6
LLWLLL · 6 scored, 12 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Marine FA Cup | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Newcastle United U21 National League Cup | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Forest Green | 4–2 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Tamworth | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Sep | vs Harrogate Town | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Scunthorpe | 1–4 | L |
Last 5 at home: LLLLL
AFC Hornchurch: last 6
WWDLWL · 9 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Uxbridge FA Cup | 4–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Eastleigh | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Fulham U21 National League Cup | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Harrogate Town | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Sep | vs Aldershot Town | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Altrincham | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 away: WLLLL
Season stats
| Hartlepool United | AFC Hornchurch | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.92 | Goals scored per game | 1.15 |
| 1.46 | Goals conceded per game | 1.46 |
| 0.67 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.14 | Scored per game away | 0.86 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 62% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 31% |
| 23% | Clean sheets | 31% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 38% |
| 2.23 | Yellow cards per game | 1.77 |
League matches only, 13 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Hartlepool United | AFC Hornchurch |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 14 | +2 | 23 | LWLLW |
| 8 | FC Halifax Town | 14 | +7 | 21 | DWWDL |
| 9 | Barrow | 13 | +6 | 21 | WWWWW |
| 10 | AFC Hornchurch | 14 | -5 | 21 | LWLWL |
| 11 | Carlisle | 14 | +4 | 20 | WDWWL |
| 12 | Kidderminster Harriers | 14 | +2 | 20 | LDDLL |
| 13 | Woking | 14 | +1 | 18 | WLWLW |
| … | |||||
| 16 | Sutton Utd | 14 | -6 | 18 | LLDLD |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | -3 | 15 | LDDLD |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | -6 | 15 | WLLDW |
| 19 | Hartlepool United | 14 | -6 | 15 | WWLLL |
| 20 | Tamworth | 13 | -9 | 14 | LWWLW |
| 21 | Boston United | 14 | -10 | 12 | LLLDL |
| 22 | Scunthorpe | 13 | -7 | 10 | LLLWL |
Team news: lineups Expected
No reliable expected lineup yet. Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kick-off.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
No confirmed absences reported.
Key facts
- Hartlepool sit 20th in the National League with 12 points from 13 games, having scored 12 and conceded 19.[1]
- AFC Hornchurch are ninth with 21 points from 13 games, with 15 scored and 19 conceded.[1]
- Hartlepool have won two and lost four of their six home league games this season.[1]
- Hornchurch have won two and lost five of their seven away league games.[1]
- Hartlepool lost 0-2 to Marine in the FA Cup on 17 October, while Hornchurch won 4-0 at Uxbridge the same day.[1][2]
- Hartlepool's only recent league win was 4-2 at Forest Green on 10 October; their other five recent results include five defeats.[1]
- Hornchurch have been drawn to host Blackpool in the FA Cup first round.[3]
Sources
Match context
- Stadium
- The Suit Direct Stadium, Hartlepool, County Durham
- 7,856 seats · grass
- Travel for AFC Hornchurch
- 360 km
- Rest days
- Hartlepool United 7AFC Hornchurch 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Hartlepool United 3 · AFC Hornchurch 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 9°C · wind 28 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- S. Grayson
- Hartlepool United, since Jul 2025
- D. McMahon
- AFC Hornchurch, since Aug 2024
- Goals in this league
- National League average: 3.10 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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