Harrogate Town vs Sutton United prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Harrogate to win: 58%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 51% · bookies 51% · ✓ 4 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers' because the form and table gap are already reflected in the market and data quality is low. The Coach's view was not followed: it argued for a larger upward shift on Harrogate, but with no team news and Sutton's low scoring we kept the home number near the market.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Harrogate Town's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsHarrogate's strong league form and home advantage position them as clear favorites.
Harrogate Town is 2nd in the National League with 28 points from 13 games, while Sutton United is 13th with 18 points. Harrogate has been in strong form, winning five straight games in all listed recent results.
Harrogate: slightly underrated
More goalsLow✓ Right The Dressing Room
mood and pressureIn-form Harrogate, five wins running, host a Sutton side short on league results.
Sutton sit 13th with 18 points and have lost two of their last three league games, though they did win in the FA Cup. Harrogate had three days' rest, Sutton six.
Harrogate: slightly overrated
More goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongHarrogate's form and table gap edge past the market's home price
Harrogate sit 2nd with 29 GF/14 GA; Sutton 13th with 14 GF/19 GA. Model sees 62% home vs market 57.6%, and over 2.5 at 59% vs 51% priced. H2H is from old League Two games, mixed.
Harrogate: slightly underrated
More goalsLow✓ Right AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Second-placed Harrogate Town host 13th-placed Sutton United in the National League. Neither side has reported absences.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Harrogate Town win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 76%
- Sutton United win or draw
- 42%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.8 goals from Harrogate Town and 0.9 from Sutton United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 58% | 24% | 18% | 51% |
| Goals model | 62% | 22% | 16% | 59% |
| AI analysts | 62% | 22% | 16% | 58% |
| Our forecast | 58% | 24% | 18% | 51% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because the form and table gap already point the same way, and the low data quality - no team news or away-defence detail - argues against a larger adjustment.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Harrogate Town: last 6
WDWWWW · 13 scored, 3 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Bury FA Cup | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Bury FA Cup | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Woking | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs AFC Hornchurch | 3–0 | W |
| 29 Sep | at Hartlepool | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Eastleigh | 4–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWLW
Sutton United: last 6
WWLDLD · 8 scored, 10 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Truro City FA Cup | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs West Bromwich Albion U21 National League Cup | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Oct | vs Boreham Wood | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Kidderminster Harriers | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Sep | at Tamworth | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Forest Green | 3–3 | D |
Last 5 away: DLDLW
Season stats
| Harrogate Town | Sutton United | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.23 | Goals scored per game | 1.08 |
| 1.31 | Goals conceded per game | 1.38 |
| 2.86 | Scored per game at home | 1.14 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 77% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 38% |
| 69% | Both teams scored | 38% |
| 31% | Clean sheets | 23% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 38% |
| 1.69 | Yellow cards per game | 2.31 |
League matches only, 13 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Harrogate Town | Sutton United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
National League table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 14 | +25 | 38 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 14 | +14 | 31 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Southend | 14 | +12 | 28 | DWWDL |
| 4 | Worthing | 14 | +10 | 27 | WWWDW |
| 5 | Altrincham | 14 | +2 | 27 | WWLWW |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Woking | 14 | +1 | 18 | WLWLW |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 14 | +1 | 18 | LLLLW |
| 15 | Eastleigh | 14 | -4 | 18 | WLLDL |
| 16 | Sutton United | 14 | -6 | 18 | LLDLD |
| 17 | Forest Green | 12 | -3 | 15 | LDDLD |
| 18 | Wealdstone | 14 | -6 | 15 | WLLDW |
| 19 | Hartlepool | 14 | -6 | 15 | WWLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Harrogate Town won 1, Sutton United 4, 1 draw; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2024 | Harrogate Town | 2–2 | Sutton United | League Two |
| 30 Jan 2024 | Sutton United | 1–2 | Harrogate Town | League Two |
| 28 Jan 2023 | Harrogate Town | 0–1 | Sutton United | League Two |
| 3 Sep 2022 | Sutton United | 2–1 | Harrogate Town | League Two |
| 7 May 2022 | Harrogate Town | 0–2 | Sutton United | League Two |
| 25 Jan 2022 | Sutton United | 1–0 | Harrogate Town | EFL Trophy |
Team news: lineups Expected
No reliable expected lineup yet. Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kick-off.
Team news: injuries and suspensions
No confirmed absences reported.
Key facts
- Harrogate Town sit 2nd in the National League with 28 points from 13 games, scoring 29 and conceding 14.[1]
- Sutton United are 13th with 18 points from 13 games, scoring 14 and conceding 19.[1]
- Sutton have one point from their last three league games, losing 0-2 to Boreham Wood and Tamworth and drawing 1-1 at Kidderminster Harriers.[1]
- Harrogate beat Bury 3-1 in an FA Cup fourth qualifying round replay on 20 October after a 1-1 draw.[2][4]
- Sutton beat Truro City 1-0 in the FA Cup fourth qualifying round on 17 October.[4]
- Sutton's away league record this season is two wins, two draws and two defeats.[1]
Sources
Match context
- Stadium
- EnviroVent Stadium, Harrogate, North Yorkshire
- 3,800 seats · grass
- Travel for Sutton United
- 159 km
- Rest days
- Harrogate Town 3Sutton United 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Harrogate Town 3 · Sutton United 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 8°C · wind 19 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- Simon Weaver
- Harrogate Town, since Aug 2025
- Jon Meeney
- Sutton United, since Aug 2025
- Goals in this league
- National League average: 3.10 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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