York City vs Port Vale prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
York to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 51% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only a point from the market towards the draw. The Sceptic's view was not followed: it argued Port Vale were overrated by four points, but the sources describe Vale in good recent form, so we kept the away side near the market level.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Port Vale's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Port Vale favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsYork City's home advantage and high stakes clash with Port Vale's defensive stability.
York City is unbeaten at home and is currently in the play-off race, while Port Vale has stabilized under Jon Brady. Port Vale boasts the third-best defensive record in the league. The match is a League Two fixture at the LNER Community Stadium.
Port Vale: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureYork City's home advantage and high stakes make them favorites to secure a result.
York City is unbeaten at home and has high pressure to avoid dropping out of play-off contention. Port Vale has stabilized their form, achieving three wins in their last five matches. Port Vale is noted for its strong defense, ranking third-least goals conceded in the league.
Port Vale: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongYork City's unbeaten home form and high stakes make them a strong contender.
York City is sixth in League Two and remains unbeaten at home. Port Vale has settled into good recent form, boasting a third-best defensive record in the league. However, they are also one of the lowest-scoring teams.
Port Vale: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
York City host Port Vale at the LNER Community Stadium unbeaten at home this season, but with a tight table meaning a defeat could drop them out of the play-off places. Port Vale arrive in improved form with one of the division's better defences, though they score few goals. No injury or suspension news is available for either side.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- York City win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Port Vale win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.6 goals from York City and 1.2 from Port Vale. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 48% | 26% | 26% | 51% |
| Goals model | 55% | 28% | 17% | 39% |
| AI analysts | 51% | 29% | 20% | 44% |
| Our forecast | 47% | 27% | 26% | 53% |
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because the sources give no team news and the underlying picture - York strong at home, Port Vale defensively solid but blunt in attack - supports a tight match with a meaningful draw chance.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
York City: last 6
DDDWDL · 7 scored, 6 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Accrington ST | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Newport County | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Northampton | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Gillingham | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | vs Rotherham EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Chesterfield | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: DDWDL
Port Vale: last 6
DWWWDL · 6 scored, 4 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Gillingham | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Chesterfield | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Grimsby | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Mansfield Town EFL Trophy | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Chesterfield EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Walsall | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: DDLLL
Season stats
| York City | Port Vale | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.73 | Goals scored per game | 0.60 |
| 1.18 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 2.33 | Scored per game at home | 0.80 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.40 |
| 45% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 10% |
| 73% | Both teams scored | 30% |
| 18% | Clean sheets | 40% |
| 9% | Failed to score | 40% |
| 1.45 | Yellow cards per game | 2.10 |
League matches only, 11 and 10 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | York City | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Barnet | 11 | +8 | 22 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Cheltenham | 13 | +0 | 21 | WWLLL |
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | +0 | 21 | LLWWW |
| 5 | York City | 12 | +8 | 20 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Walsall | 11 | +9 | 19 | WDDDW |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | +6 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWDWW |
| … | |||||
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | -4 | 12 | DLWDL |
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | -5 | 12 | LDDLD |
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | -6 | 12 | DDLLL |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | -6 | 12 | LDWWL |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | -9 | 6 | DLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: York City won 0, Port Vale 1, 1 draw; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar 2013 | York City | 0–2 | Port Vale | League Two |
| 17 Nov 2012 | Port Vale | 2–2 | York City | League Two |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1Alfie Shane McNally
Defenders
- 2R. Fallowfield
- 5Z. Johnson
- 3M. Kitching
Midfielders
- 32J. Hunt
- 8A. Hunt
- 28O. Banks
- 12H. Boyes
- 16A. Read
- 11F. Maguire
Forward
- 10O. Pearce
Substitutes (7)
- 21H. Boateng
- 23J. Felix
- 15J. King
- 30A. Newby
- 9J. Stones
- 31G. Sykes-Kenworthy
- 24M. Williams
Goalkeeper
- 20M. Maroši
Defenders
- 25C. Humphreys
- 4J. Moon
- 2K. John
Midfielders
- 6J. Lawrence-Gabriel
- 10K. Dempsey
- 38R. Walters
- 7G. Byers
- 3J. Headley
Forwards
- 14O. Lynch
- 24K. Figueroa
Substitutes (7)
- 27M. Asamoah
- 33G. Hall
- 11O. Hernández
- 36M. Watters
- 1J. Smith
- 22L. Montsma
- 12A. McGowan
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
No confirmed absences reported.
Key facts
- York City sit 6th in League Two with 17 points from 11 games and are unbeaten at home this season (W4 D2 L0).[1]
- A defeat could drop York out of the play-off places into the bottom half, with only 3 points separating 6th from 18th-placed Fleetwood.[1]
- Port Vale are 20th with 12 points from 10 games and have won none of their away league matches (W0 D1 L4).[1]
- Port Vale have improved since a winless first five league matches, taking three wins, a draw and a defeat in their last five.[1]
- Port Vale have one of the division's best defensive records but have scored the fewest goals alongside Northampton.[1]
- Manager Adam Lindsey says York's position flatters to deceive and that the team tops most statistical categories.[1]
- Lindsey is wary of in-form visitors, noting a trend of in-form teams coming to the LNER Community Stadium, as with Accrington, Northampton and Gillingham.[1]
Sources
- yorkpress.co.uk – False position gives York City confidence, says Lindsey ahead of Port Vale - The York Press (2026-10-24)
Match context
- Stadium
- LNER Community Stadium, York, North Yorkshire
- 8,500 seats · grass
- Travel for Port Vale
- 128 km
- Rest days
- York City 3Port Vale 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: York City 2 · Port Vale 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 27 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- S. Lindsey
- York City, since Aug 2026
- J. Brady
- Port Vale, since Aug 2026
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.54 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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