Crawley Town vs Tranmere Rovers prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Tranmere 38%)
Goals call3+ goals 52% · bookies 52% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
The final probabilities remain close to the bookmakers' estimates, showing no significant shift in the away team's advantage. The Sceptic's view was not followed as the final probability for Tranmere Rovers did not move away from the market's away favorite status.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Tranmere Rovers's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength Tranmere edge a struggling Crawley side in transition.
Both teams name full XIs with no injuries or suspensions. Crawley (3-4-2-1) start Orsi-Dadomo up front under interim boss Blackwell; Tranmere (4-2-3-1) field Ince behind Ironside with Vaulks anchoring midfield. No availability advantage for either side.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureBottom club Crawley in managerial chaos face a steadier Tranmere side.
Crawley sit bottom with 5 points from 10 games and recently lost to Shrewsbury, Salford and MK Dons. The club sacked Colin Kazim-Richards and installed Kevin Blackwell as interim while seeking a permanent boss. Tranmere are 13th with 15 points but have one win in their last five.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongCrawley's interim-manager turmoil is real, but the market already prices Tranmere as fair favourite - slight away lean
Tranmere won both 2025-26 meetings with Crawley 2-0. League scoring runs 2.54 goals per game and both sides concede freely, backing the over near the 55% price. The model puts Tranmere nearer 42% than the market's 38%, the main spot where the price may be slightly short.
Tranmere: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
This League Two fixture pits Crawley Town, currently in the relegation zone, against Tranmere Rovers, a mid-table side. The match is defined by Crawley's recent managerial change and poor form, contrasted with Tranmere's relative stability.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Crawley Town win or draw
- 62%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Tranmere Rovers win or draw
- 64%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 52%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Crawley Town and 1.4 from Tranmere Rovers. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 36% | 26% | 38% | 52% |
| Goals model | 31% | 27% | 42% | 53% |
| AI analysts | 32% | 26% | 42% | 54% |
| Our forecast | 36% | 26% | 38% | 52% |
Verdict: The final probabilities align closely with the bookmakers' estimates, suggesting that the market has accurately priced the risk associated with Crawley Town's current instability.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Crawley Town: last 6
LLDWLL · 10 scored, 13 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Shrewsbury | 2–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Salford City | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Chesterfield | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Oct | vs Bromley EFL Trophy | 4–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Milton Keynes Dons EFL Trophy | 1–4 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Grimsby | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: LDWLL
Tranmere Rovers: last 6
WLDLDW · 7 scored, 8 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Northampton | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Barnet | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Rochdale | 1–1 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Chesterfield | 2–4 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Walsall | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Sep | vs Shrewsbury EFL Trophy | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WLDLD
Season stats
| Crawley Town | Tranmere Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.10 | Goals scored per game | 1.25 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.25 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 70% | Both teams scored | 58% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 2.60 | Yellow cards per game | 2.17 |
League matches only, 10 and 12 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Crawley Town | Tranmere Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | -4 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Grimsby | 13 | +3 | 17 | WDLLL |
| 12 | Gillingham | 13 | +0 | 17 | LDLWD |
| 13 | Tranmere Rovers | 13 | +0 | 16 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Swindon Town | 13 | -3 | 16 | DWDLL |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | -4 | 16 | DLLLL |
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | +0 | 15 | LDDWD |
| … | |||||
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | -5 | 12 | LDDLD |
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | -6 | 12 | DDLLL |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | -6 | 12 | LDWWL |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | -9 | 6 | DLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Crawley Town won 3, Tranmere Rovers 3, 0 draws; 2.8 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | Tranmere Rovers | 2–0 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Crawley Town | 0–2 | Tranmere Rovers | League Two |
| 23 Mar 2024 | Tranmere Rovers | 1–3 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 16 Sep 2023 | Crawley Town | 3–2 | Tranmere Rovers | League Two |
| 15 Apr 2023 | Crawley Town | 2–1 | Tranmere Rovers | League Two |
| 28 Feb 2023 | Tranmere Rovers | 1–0 | Crawley Town | League Two |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1V. Mannone
Defenders
- 2K. Gordon
- 6P. Farquharson
- 16J. Russell
- 12L. Richards
Midfielders
- 30Kai Jennings
- 20J. Arthurs
- 10S. Duke-McKenna
- 27Dylan Morgan
- 22A. Adeyemo
Forward
- 9D. Orsi
Substitutes (7)
- 17Osman Kamara
- 4Pele Arganese-McDermott
- 11P. Aderoju
- 13N. Michalski
- 19D. Pereira
- 28Nathan Tinsdale
- 8L. Watson
Goalkeeper
- 1L. McGee
Defenders
- 2J. Senior
- 22L. O'Connor
- 16B. Faulkner
- 30G. Nevett
- 3J. Slater
Midfielders
- 29D. Jones
- 6W. Vaulks
- 11T. Conlon
- 10T. Ince
Forward
- 9J. Ironside
Substitutes (7)
- 7Charlie Jay Whitaker
- 13C. Boyce-Clarke
- 24David Kamara
- 14O. Scott
- 5N. Smith
- 4J. Turnbull
- 44R. Watson
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
No confirmed absences reported.
Key facts
- Crawley Town sits in 24th position in the League Two table with five points from ten matches.[1]
- Tranmere Rovers occupy 13th place in the table, having secured fifteen points from twelve games.[1]
- Crawley Town's recent league form has been mixed, including losses to Shrewsbury Town and Salford City.[1]
- Tranmere Rovers' recent league form has been inconsistent, featuring a win, a draw, and a loss in their last three fixtures.[1]
- Crawley Town's home record this season consists of zero wins, one draw, and four losses.[1]
- Tranmere Rovers has a head-to-head record that includes a 2-0 victory over Crawley Town in February 2026.[1]
Sources
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- Broadfield Stadium, Crawley, West Sussex
- 6,134 seats · grass
- Travel for Tranmere Rovers
- 318 km
- Rest days
- Crawley Town 3Tranmere Rovers 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Crawley Town 2 · Tranmere Rovers 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 24 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- Colin Kazım-Richards
- Crawley Town, since Oct 2026
- D. Clarke
- Tranmere Rovers, since Aug 2026
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.54 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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