Northampton Town vs Colchester United prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Northampton to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call2 goals or fewer 56% · bookies 57% · ✓ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', with only the over nudged up one point to 44% for the early kick-off and possible fatigue errors. The Sceptic's view was not followed: it wanted the draw shaded up to 33% and the over pushed well down, but with limited Northampton-specific team news we kept the draw at the market's 29% and made only a small goals adjustment.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Northampton Town's chances are better than the bookmakers say. The Sceptic thinks a draw is underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsNorthampton's fuller squad edges an injury-hit Colchester in a low-scoring contest.
Colchester are without Payne, Anderson and Kouassi; Perry starts after a year out and Tom Smith is only just back in training, so Lo-Tutala keeps goal. Northampton name a full-strength 4-4-2 with Hoskins and Lemonheigh-Evans available. Key duel: Colchester's makeshift front line vs a settled Northampton back line.
Northampton: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✓ Right The Dressing Room
mood and pressureWinless, weary Colchester visit a Northampton side lifted by new owners
Northampton sit 23rd with 10 points but have new owners, a debt-free club and Edu advising. Colchester are 19th on an eight-match winless league run, playing a third game in a week and a 12:30pm kick-off away.
Northampton: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed✓ Right The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongTwo blunt, out-of-form sides point to a tight, low-scoring draw more than a home win.
Northampton rank 23rd (GF6 GA8), Colchester 19th (GF11 GA10); Northampton lead the last five H2H 4-1. Model xG is 0.95-0.75, implying over 2.5 near 24-30% versus a 43.6% implied price - the goals line looks the softest number.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Two struggling League Two sides meet at Sixfields with Northampton 23rd on 10 points and Colchester 19th on 12. Colchester arrive on an eight-match winless league run with several players out, while Northampton have no listed absences. Our numbers stay close to the market, with a small nudge on the goals line.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Northampton Town win or draw
- 76%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Colchester United win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 48%
- No
- 52%
We expect about 1.5 goals from Northampton Town and 1.0 from Colchester United. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (9%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 47% | 29% | 24% | 43% |
| Goals model | 38% | 36% | 26% | 24% |
| AI analysts | 42% | 34% | 24% | 28% |
| Our forecast | 47% | 29% | 24% | 44% |
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because the sources offer good Colchester team news but almost nothing on Northampton's lineup, limiting how far we can move. The only adjustment is a one-point nudge up on the goals line.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Northampton Town: last 6
LWDLLL · 4 scored, 7 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Tranmere | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Grimsby | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at York | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Oct | at Cambridge United EFL Trophy | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Rotherham | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Shrewsbury | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: LLWDL
Colchester United: last 6
DDLDDL · 5 scored, 8 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Chesterfield | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Exeter City | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Newport County | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Luton EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Shrewsbury | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Sep | at Peterborough EFL Trophy | 1–3 | L |
Last 5 away: DLDLL
Season stats
| Northampton Town | Colchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded per game | 1.27 |
| 0.40 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 0% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 36% |
| 30% | Both teams scored | 64% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 18% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 1.40 | Yellow cards per game | 1.36 |
League matches only, 10 and 11 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Northampton Town | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | +0 | 15 | LDDWD |
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | -7 | 15 | LDLDW |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | -2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 19 | Northampton Town | 11 | +0 | 13 | WLWDL |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | -4 | 12 | DLWDL |
| 21 | Colchester United | 12 | -5 | 12 | LDDLD |
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | -6 | 12 | DDLLL |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | -6 | 12 | LDWWL |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | -9 | 6 | DLLDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Northampton Town won 4, Colchester United 2, 0 draws; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Feb 2023 | Colchester United | 0–1 | Northampton Town | League Two |
| 30 Jul 2022 | Northampton Town | 3–2 | Colchester United | League Two |
| 19 Feb 2022 | Northampton Town | 3–0 | Colchester United | League Two |
| 14 Aug 2021 | Colchester United | 0–1 | Northampton Town | League Two |
| 24 Aug 2019 | Colchester United | 1–0 | Northampton Town | League Two |
| 2 Feb 2019 | Northampton Town | 0–4 | Colchester United | League Two |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1Z. Jeacock
Defenders
- 44J. Donacien
- 6E. Moore
- 5J. Guthrie
- 3J. Maxwell
Midfielders
- 16J. Wormleighton
- 24C. Lemonheigh-Evans
- 8L. Evans
- 7S. Hoskins
Forwards
- 19O. Dale
- 9Matthew Warhurst
Substitutes (7)
- 20L. Briggs
- 35M. Dyche
- 14T. Fornah
- 10E. List
- 4J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh
- 22Joshua Alan Powell
- 31J. Dadge
Goalkeeper
- 22T. Lo-Tutala
Defenders
- 2R. Hunt
- 5J. Tucker
- 24F. Terry
- 3E. Iandolo
Midfielders
- 26J. Williams
- 4Ben Perry
- 27O. Thorn
- 12M. Sesay
- 15B. Lubala
Forward
- 9B. Ihionvien
Substitutes (7)
- 30K. Vincent-Young
- 17Jaden Williams
- 20S. Raggett
- 10J. Payne
- 44S. Kuffour
- 6P. Digby
- 39K. Connelly
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
Key facts
- Northampton sit 23rd in League Two with 10 points from 10 games; their home record is one win, two draws and two defeats.[6]
- Colchester are 19th with 12 points from 11 games and are winless in their last eight league matches.[5][6]
- Goalkeeper Tom Smith returned to training on Thursday after a quad injury and is being eased back rather than rushed.[4]
- This is Colchester's third match in a week and fourth away fixture in five, with an early lunchtime kick-off that Danny Cowley admits makes some difference.[1][5]
- Northampton's new owners completed a takeover of 70% of the club on 30 September, and the club is described as debt-free.[2]
- Cowley has said Northampton's underlying numbers suggest they should be higher in the table, citing an xG figure above three against Tranmere.[5]
Sources
- gazette-news.co.uk – Ben Perry pushing for Colchester United start on familiar ground at Northampton - Colchester Gazette (2026-10-23)
- gazette-news.co.uk – The sliding doors story behind Colchester United’s trip to Northampton - Colchester Gazette (2026-10-23)
- gazette-news.co.uk – Why Colchester United are being 'careful' with Tom Smith ahead of Northampton - Colchester Gazette (2026-10-23)
- gazette-news.co.uk – ‘That’s the ambition...’: Danny Cowley outlines key U’s aim ahead of Northampton - Colchester Gazette (2026-10-23)
- bbc.com – Northampton Town vs Colchester United: League Two stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-23)
- bbc.co.uk – Ex-Arsenal chief Edu becomes Northampton advisor (2026-10-23)
Off the pitch
- Former Arsenal executive Edu has been appointed as a senior advisor to Northampton's new owners.[7]
Match context
- Stadium
- Sixfields Stadium, Northampton, East Midlands
- 7,798 seats · grass
- Travel for Colchester United
- 128 km
- Rest days
- Northampton Town 3Colchester United 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Northampton Town 3 · Colchester United 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 9°C · wind 18 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- C. Hogg
- Northampton Town, since Aug 2026
- D. Cowley
- Colchester United, since Jan 2024
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.54 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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