‹ League Two · Matchday 13
Rochdale 16thDLDWW
0–5
UK time (GMT)
Full time
Accrington Stanley 13thDWDWD

Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley prediction

Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works

KickoffHour pre-match forecast

Who wins?

Wide open: no clear favourite (Rochdale 38%)

Rochdale38%Bookies 39
Draw27%Bookies 27
Accrington Stanley35%Bookies 34

Goals call2 goals or fewer 52% · bookies 51% · ✗ 5 goals

The Verdict

Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving just one point from the home side to Accrington Stanley because of Rochdale's long injury list. The Sceptic's view was not followed, as the scale of Rochdale's absences outweighs the boost from the home record and the new signing.

! Upset: we gave Accrington Stanley 35% Ledger record ↗

What our AI analysts say

2 of 3 think Accrington Stanley's chances are better than the bookmakers say.

The Coach

tactics and lineups

Accrington Stanley's defensive consistency and structure should prove too much for a heavily depleted Rochdale side.

Rochdale is missing numerous key players, including Mani Dieseruvwe and Tobi Adebayo-Rowling. Accrington Stanley is currently unbeaten in six matches and utilizes a 3-4-1-2 formation [1, Official Lineups]. Jamie Paterson recently joined Rochdale on a season-long deal.

Accrington StanleyAccrington Stanley: clearly underrated Fewer goalsMed✓ Right

The Dressing Room

mood and pressure

Accrington's strong unbeaten run gives them the edge, but Rochdale's home advantage keeps the game tight.

The match will be played under adverse conditions with rain and wind.

Accrington StanleyAccrington Stanley: clearly underrated More goalsMed✓ Right

The Sceptic

where the market may be wrong

Rochdale's strong recent form and home advantage give them the edge in this tight contest.

Rochdale has lost only once in seven games. The match will be played in challenging conditions with rain and wind, which may affect attacking play.

Accrington StanleyAccrington Stanley: slightly overrated Low

AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best

In short

Two mid-table sides level on 15 points meet at Rochdale. Accrington Stanley are unbeaten in six league games but have not won away this season, while Rochdale carry a long injury list. The market sees a close match, and our numbers stay close to it.

More markets

Win or draw (double chance)

Rochdale win or draw
65%
Either team wins (no draw)
73%
Accrington Stanley win or draw
62%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals
73%
3+ goals
48%
4+ goals
27%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes
53%
No
47%

We expect about 1.3 goals from Rochdale and 1.3 from Accrington Stanley. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).

How we got to these numbers
Home = Rochdale win, Away = Accrington Stanley win.
HomeDrawAway3+ goals
Bookmakers39%27%34%49%
Goals model40%27%33%52%
AI analysts36%27%37%50%
Our forecast38%27%35%48%

Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because Accrington's unbeaten form is offset by their winless away record and Rochdale's home advantage, with the injury list only nudging a point towards the away side.

Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology

Prediction history
#PublishedHomeDrawAwayReasonRecord
1 38%27%35%First analysis#914
2 38%27%35%Official lineups#1014

Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

Rochdale: last 6

DLDLWW · 8 scored, 12 conceded

20 Octvs Grimsby2–2D
17 Octat Crewe2–3L
10 Octat Tranmere1–1D
6 Octat Huddersfield EFL Trophy0–5L
3 Octvs Swindon Town1–0W
26 Sepat Fleetwood Town2–1W

Last 5 at home: DWDWL

Accrington Stanley: last 6

DWDDWD · 8 scored, 4 conceded

20 Octat York1–1D
17 Octvs Gillingham3–1W
10 Octat Oldham0–0D
6 Octvs Salford City EFL Trophy1–1D
3 Octvs Cheltenham2–0W
26 Sepat Swindon Town1–1D

Last 5 away: DDDLL

Season stats

RochdaleAccrington Stanley
1.25Goals scored per game1.42
1.42Goals conceded per game1.33
1.67Scored per game at home2.00
0.83Scored per game away0.83
58%Matches over 2.5 goals50%
50%Both teams scored67%
33%Clean sheets25%
25%Failed to score25%
1.92Yellow cards per game2.75

League matches only, 12 games each.

When goals come

Goals scored this season by 15-minute period.
MinutesRochdaleAccrington Stanley
0–15 min 36
16–30 min 03
31–45 min 34
46–60 min 25
61–75 min 14
76–90 min 52

League Two table

#TeamPldGoal diff.PointsLeague form
6Walsall11+919WDDDW
7Chesterfield13+619WDLDW
8Exeter City13+319WWDWW
9Accrington Stanley13+618WDWDW
10Shrewsbury13-418DWWLW
11Grimsby13+317WDLLL
12Gillingham13+017LDLWD
…
14Swindon Town13-316DWDLL
15Bristol Rovers13-416DLLLL
16Newport County13+015LDDWD
17Rochdale13-715LDLDW
18Fleetwood Town13-214LLWDL
19Northampton11+013WLWDL
20Oldham12-412DLWDL

Full League Two table · Predicted final table

Head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Rochdale won 4, Accrington Stanley 1, 1 draw; 3.3 goals per game.

DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
30 Aug 2022Accrington Stanley3–3RochdaleEFL Trophy
17 Apr 2021Rochdale3–1Accrington StanleyLeague One
10 Oct 2020Accrington Stanley2–1RochdaleLeague One
1 Jan 2020Accrington Stanley1–2RochdaleLeague One
12 Oct 2019Rochdale2–1Accrington StanleyLeague One
9 Apr 2019Accrington Stanley0–1RochdaleLeague One

Team news: lineups Confirmed

Rochdale4-2-3-1

Goalkeeper

  • 20Sam William John Waller

Defenders

  • 26S. Sherring
  • 44A. Flint
  • 3Kaiden Wilson
  • 2C. Tasker

Midfielders

  • 8H. Gilmour
  • 14E. Francis
  • 7C. Hayes
  • 17B. Adeeko
  • 45G. Middleton

Forward

  • 39D. Brown
Substitutes (7)
  • 33S. Beckwith
  • 19L. Hannant
  • 40I. Henderson
  • 35J. Paterson
  • 11Z. Silcott-Duberry
  • 12J. Spaven
  • 56Reece Leonard
Accrington Stanley3-4-1-2

Goalkeeper

  • 1L. Moulden

Defenders

  • 2D. Love
  • 17D. Matthews
  • 22J. Anderson

Midfielders

  • 38C. O'Brien
  • 14Stefan Mols
  • 16Aidan Borland
  • 33D. Tutonda
  • 39J. Woods

Forwards

  • 23T. Walton
  • 30C. Warren
Substitutes (7)
  • 3Oliver Smith
  • 20C. Brown
  • 8C. Grant
  • 10Alex Henderson
  • 4T. Moore
  • 5F. Rawson
  • 21J. Rogerson

Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).

Team news: injuries and suspensions

PlayerTeamStatusSource
Mani DieseruvweRochdaleOut[1]
Tobi Adebayo-RowlingRochdaleOut[1]
Kane TaylorRochdaleOut[1]
Bryant BilongoRochdaleOut[1]
Jonny SmithRochdaleOut[1]
Devante RodneyRochdaleOut[1]
Ethan Ebanks-LandellRochdaleOut[1]
Ryan EastRochdaleOut[1]
Casey PettitRochdaleOut[1]
Nils RammingRochdaleOut[1]
Dan MossRochdaleOut[1]
Will JenkinsRochdaleOut[1]

Key facts

  • Rochdale sit 14th with 15 points from 12 league games; Accrington Stanley are 11th, also on 15 points.[2]
  • Rochdale have won three, drawn one and lost two of their six home league games this season.[2]
  • Accrington Stanley are without an away league win this season, with three draws and three defeats on the road.[2]
  • Accrington Stanley are unbeaten in their last six league games.[1]
  • Rochdale drew 2-2 with Grimsby in their most recent league match on 20 October.[2]
  • Accrington Stanley drew 1-1 at York City in their most recent league match on 20 October.[2]
  • Rochdale have a lengthy injury list, including Mani Dieseruvwe with a hamstring problem awaiting scan results.[1]
  • Jamie Paterson has signed for Rochdale on a deal until the end of the season.[3]

Sources

  1. rochdaleafc.co.uk – Preview | Accrington Stanley (H) - Rochdale AFC (2026-10-23)
  2. bbc.com – Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley: League Two stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-23)
  3. bbc.co.uk – Paterson signs for League Two club Rochdale (2026-10-23)
  4. lancashiretelegraph.co.uk – Doolan disappointed as Stanley are denied away day win

Off the pitch

  • Accrington Stanley manager John Doolan expressed disappointment after the 1-1 draw at York, feeling his side deserved more.[5]

Match context

Stadium
Crown Oil Arena, Rochdale, Greater Manchester
10,249 seats · grass
Travel for Accrington Stanley
20 km
Rest days
Rochdale 3Accrington Stanley 3
Matches in the last 14 days: Rochdale 2 · Accrington Stanley 2
Weather at kick-off
9°C · wind 24 km/h
Rain expected
Referee
Richie Watkins
Coaches
Ian Watson
Rochdale, since Aug 2026
J. Doolan
Accrington Stanley, since Mar 2024
Goals in this league
League Two average: 2.54 per match

Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)

This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →

18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling

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