Chesterfield vs Crewe Alexandra prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Chesterfield to win: 59%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 59% · bookies 58% · ✓ 6 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers' because the three analysts each argued for a 3-point shift in conflicting directions, which offset one another. The Sceptic's view of a tighter, lower-scoring contest was not followed, since the sources give no concrete team news to support moving the goals line beyond a one-point nudge.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Chesterfield are underrated; The Dressing Room thinks Crewe Alexandra are underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsCrewe missing several forwards tips a tight game toward Chesterfield
Crewe travel without a quartet, including forward Shilow Tracey (broken leg), forcing a reshaped 4-2-3-1 with Agius and Billington starting. Chesterfield's named XI shows no injuries or suspensions, though new signing depth matters less than Grigg's exit. Key duel: Chesterfield's Hutton supply lines vs Crewe's makeshift front three.
Chesterfield: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✓ Right The Dressing Room
mood and pressureCrewe's superior league standing is challenged by key personnel issues and injury concerns.
Crewe Alexandra is 3rd in League Two with 21 points from 12 games. Chesterfield is 9th with 16 points. Chesterfield has also seen striker Will Grigg leave the club.
Crewe Alexandra: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongChesterfield's home advantage should see them edge out a tight contest against Crewe.
Chesterfield is 9th in League Two, having scored 18 goals and conceded 16. Crewe is 3rd, with a goal difference of +4.
Chesterfield: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Chesterfield, 9th with 16 points, host 3rd-placed Crewe Alexandra, who sit five points better off after 12 games. Crewe lost their last league match 0-2 at Exeter, while Chesterfield drew 1-1 with Colchester. No current team news is available for either side.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Chesterfield win or draw
- 81%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 78%
- Crewe Alexandra win or draw
- 41%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 59%
- 4+ goals
- 37%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 2.0 goals from Chesterfield and 1.1 from Crewe Alexandra. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (9%), 3–1 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 59% | 22% | 19% | 58% |
| Goals model | 39% | 29% | 32% | 45% |
| AI analysts | 45% | 27% | 28% | 50% |
| Our forecast | 59% | 22% | 19% | 59% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay at the bookmakers' levels because the three expert views pull in equal and opposite directions: a home shift, an away shift and a home-underrating correction of the same size cancel each other out.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Chesterfield: last 6
DLDWLD · 9 scored, 9 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Colchester | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Port Vale | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Crawley Town | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Tranmere | 4–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Cheltenham | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Port Vale EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: DWDWW
Crewe Alexandra: last 6
LWWDWD · 10 scored, 8 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Exeter City | 0–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Rochdale | 3–2 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Swindon Town | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | at Blackpool EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Bristol Rovers | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Rotherham | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 away: LWDDD
Season stats
| Chesterfield | Crewe Alexandra | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.25 |
| 1.33 | Goals conceded per game | 0.92 |
| 1.83 | Scored per game at home | 1.83 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game away | 0.67 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 58% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 2.08 | Yellow cards per game | 1.75 |
League matches only, 12 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Chesterfield | Crewe Alexandra |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 12 | +7 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Barnet | 11 | +8 | 22 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Cheltenham | 13 | +0 | 21 | WWLLL |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 13 | +0 | 21 | LLWWW |
| 5 | York | 12 | +8 | 20 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Walsall | 11 | +9 | 19 | WDDDW |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | +6 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 13 | +6 | 18 | WDWDW |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | -4 | 18 | DWWLW |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Chesterfield won 2, Crewe Alexandra 3, 1 draw; 4.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | Chesterfield | 2–0 | Crewe Alexandra | League Two |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Crewe Alexandra | 3–3 | Chesterfield | League Two |
| 2 Sep 2025 | Crewe Alexandra | 7–1 | Chesterfield | EFL Trophy |
| 1 Mar 2025 | Chesterfield | 1–3 | Crewe Alexandra | League Two |
| 17 Aug 2024 | Crewe Alexandra | 0–5 | Chesterfield | League Two |
| 26 Dec 2017 | Chesterfield | 0–2 | Crewe Alexandra | League Two |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1Z. Hemming
Defenders
- 33R. Hutton
- 15A. Pond
- 6J. Simpson
- 46T. Pearce
Midfielders
- 4T. Naylor
- 20G. McEachran
- 7L. Mandeville
- 18L. Marsh
- 37J. Koroma
Forward
- 9F. Bryden
Substitutes (7)
- 10L. Bonis
- 11D. Duffy
- 27K. Dyer
- 19L. Gordon
- 30R. Lamptey
- 24D. Markanday
- 26J. Eccleston
Goalkeeper
- 1T. Booth
Defenders
- 2L. Billington
- 6L. Offord
- 12J. Stephenson
- 3R. Hutchinson
Midfielders
- 17M. Holíček
- 8C. Thomas
- 11J. Tabiner
- 20Calum Agius
- 14J. Gibson
Forward
- 9J. March
Substitutes (7)
- 10J. White
- 4Kyle Ure
- 29A. Thibaut
- 23C. McNeill
- 19O. Lunt
- 13I. Lawlor
- 30Stan Dancey
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
| Player | Team | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shilow Tracey | Crewe Alexandra | Out | [3] |
Key facts
- Chesterfield are 9th in League Two with 16 points from 12 games; their home record is W2 D3 L1.[1]
- Chesterfield's most recent league results include a 1-1 draw with Colchester and a 0-1 defeat at Port Vale.[1]
- Crewe lost their most recent league match 0-2 at Exeter City after three straight league wins.[1]
- Striker Will Grigg has left Chesterfield to join Forest Green Rovers, reducing their attacking options.[5]
- Crewe forward Shilow Tracey suffered a broken leg in the defeat by Fleetwood Town, a blow to their attacking depth.[3]
- Both clubs have FA Cup first-round ties the following weekend: Chesterfield host Yeovil and Crewe face AFC Wimbledon.[6]
Sources
- bbc.com – Chesterfield vs Crewe Alexandra: League Two stats & head-to-head
- vitalfootball.co.uk – Serious Injury To Forward Adds To Poor Performance
- bbc.co.uk – Chesterfield's Grigg joins Forest Green Rovers (2026-10-23)
- bbc.co.uk – Leicester to visit Oxford City in FA Cup first round (2026-10-21)
Off the pitch
- Will Grigg's free-transfer departure to Forest Green Rovers thins Chesterfield's forward line.[5]
Match context
- Stadium
- SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield, Derbyshire
- 10,338 seats · grass
- Travel for Crewe Alexandra
- 70 km
- Rest days
- Chesterfield 3Crewe Alexandra 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Chesterfield 2 · Crewe Alexandra 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 26 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- P. Cook
- Chesterfield, since Feb 2022
- Lee Bell
- Crewe Alexandra, since Aug 2026
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.54 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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