Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Exeter to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 52% · bookies 56% · ✗ 3 goals
The Verdict
The market barely moved because our numbers stay close to it, with a small one-point lift to Exeter and the over as we sided mainly with The Dressing Room's four-point case for Exeter over the smaller two- and three-point nudges. The Sceptic's view that the market overestimates goals was not followed, since we raised the over probability to 48% given the league's scoring environment.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Exeter City's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsBoth sides at near full strength, so edge comes from Exeter's settled XI at home
Exeter name an unchanged-looking 4-2-3-1 with Scully and Birch — both recently tied to the club — in the attacking line, and no injury doubts are reported. Fleetwood go 3-1-4-2 with Evans and Coughlan leading the line; no absences listed. Availability is near even, with Exeter at home.
Exeter: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✓ Right The Dressing Room
mood and pressureExeter's strong form and high morale give them the edge over a struggling Fleetwood side.
Exeter City is currently 10th with 16 points and has been in a five-game unbeaten run since Anthony Scully's arrival. Fleetwood Town sits in 18th place with 14 points. This is a League Two fixture.
Exeter: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed✓ Right The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongExeter City's strong recent form and league position give them the edge over Fleetwood Town.
Fleetwood Town is in 18th position with 14 points.
Fleetwood: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Exeter host Fleetwood in League Two with home form of three wins and three draws and no league defeat at home this season. Neither side reports injuries or suspensions in our feed.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Exeter City win or draw
- 70%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Fleetwood Town win or draw
- 59%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 73%
- 3+ goals
- 47%
- 4+ goals
- 26%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 52%
- No
- 48%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Exeter City and 1.2 from Fleetwood Town. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 40% | 29% | 31% | 44% |
| Goals model | 41% | 37% | 23% | 22% |
| AI analysts | 43% | 33% | 23% | 32% |
| Our forecast | 41% | 29% | 30% | 48% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market with a small lift to Exeter, reflecting home unbeaten form and better recent results against an opponent coming off a heavy defeat, with neither side reporting absences. The over is nudged up given the league's scoring environment, though the evidence is limited by missing team-news detail.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Exeter City: last 6
WDWDWL · 6 scored, 3 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Crewe | 2–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Colchester | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Shrewsbury | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Oxford United EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Rotherham | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | at Bristol Rovers | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: WDWDW
Fleetwood Town: last 6
LWDWLL · 10 scored, 9 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Cheltenham | 2–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Rotherham | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Walsall | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Oct | vs Barnsley EFL Trophy | 4–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Salford City | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Rochdale | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLD
Season stats
| Exeter City | Fleetwood Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.67 | Goals scored per game | 1.17 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.25 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.17 |
| 0.33 | Scored per game away | 1.17 |
| 8% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 17% | Both teams scored | 58% |
| 58% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 1.75 | Yellow cards per game | 2.67 |
League matches only, 12 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Exeter City | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | York | 12 | +8 | 20 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Walsall | 11 | +9 | 19 | WDDDW |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | +6 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 13 | +6 | 18 | WDWDW |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | -4 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Grimsby | 13 | +3 | 17 | WDLLL |
| … | |||||
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | -4 | 16 | DLLLL |
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | +0 | 15 | LDDWD |
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | -7 | 15 | LDLDW |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | -2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | +0 | 13 | WLWDL |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | -4 | 12 | DLWDL |
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | -5 | 12 | LDDLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Exeter City won 3, Fleetwood Town 1, 2 draws; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb 2024 | Exeter City | 1–1 | Fleetwood Town | League One |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Fleetwood Town | 3–0 | Exeter City | League One |
| 1 Apr 2023 | Fleetwood Town | 2–2 | Exeter City | League One |
| 22 Oct 2022 | Exeter City | 2–1 | Fleetwood Town | League One |
| 22 Mar 2014 | Exeter City | 3–0 | Fleetwood Town | League Two |
| 28 Sep 2013 | Fleetwood Town | 1–2 | Exeter City | League Two |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1J. Bycroft
Defenders
- 2L. Samuel
- 6J. Taylor
- 5J. Fitzwater
- 3L. Woodhouse
Midfielders
- 14H. Kite
- 16C. Cummins
- 20George Birch
- 8T. Perry
- 25A. Scully
Forward
- 10J. Gordon
Substitutes (7)
- 12R. Cole
- 19S. Cox
- 24V. Harper
- 40E. James
- 18Liam Oakes
- 22Frankie Phillips
- 23Ethan Sutherland
Goalkeeper
- 1J. Lynch
Defenders
- 26S. Rooney
- 16Conor Haughey
- 5F. Potter
Midfielders
- 4H. Neal
- 14L. McCann
- 27C. McLean
- 10M. Helm
- 24Jake Thomas Batty
Forwards
- 17C. Evans
- 19R. Coughlan
Substitutes (7)
- 29R. Cirino
- 3D. Andrew
- 9W. Davies
- 20A. Loupalo-Bi
- 15A. Murphy
- 22J. Pradic
- 28J. Robertson
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
No confirmed absences reported.
Key facts
- Exeter are 10th in League Two with 16 points from 12 games.[1]
- Fleetwood are 18th with 14 points from 12 games.[1]
- Fleetwood have won one, drawn two and lost three away league games this season.[1]
- Exeter beat Crewe 2-0 in the league on 20 October after a goalless draw at Colchester.[1][3]
Sources
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- St James Park, Exeter, Devon
- 8,830 seats · grass
- Travel for Fleetwood Town
- 357 km
- Rest days
- Exeter City 3Fleetwood Town 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Exeter City 2 · Fleetwood Town 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 14°C · wind 23 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- M. Taylor
- Exeter City, since Aug 2026
- M. Lawlor
- Fleetwood Town, since Aug 2026
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.54 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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