Gillingham vs Grimsby Town prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Grimsby to win: 44%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 53% · ✓ 5 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers moved away from the bookmakers by 7 points in favor of Gillingham, driven by the Sceptic's assessment of Grimsby's defensive struggles. The Sceptic's view was followed, as the model heavily weighted Gillingham's resilience over the market's away bias.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Gillingham's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsGillingham's attacking structure and home form should prove too much for Grimsby's defensive frailties.
Grimsby is 17th and dealing with injuries to Tharme and Pruti. Gillingham deploys a 3-4-3 formation, while Grimsby uses a 4-1-4-1.
Gillingham: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureGillingham's strong home form and league position should see them secure a result.
Grimsby is 17th and has been winless in five league matches, though they scored two goals against Rochdale. Gillingham is currently chasing its first win in over a month.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongGillingham's strong home form and defensive stability could see them secure a point or a win.
Gillingham is 7th with a +3 goal difference, while Grimsby is 17th with a GD of 0.
Gillingham: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Gillingham enters this match as the home favorite, boasting strong recent form and a solid home record. Grimsby Town faces defensive challenges, including key injuries, despite having historical success against the Kent side. The match pits Gillingham's attacking structure against Grimsby's defensive instability.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Gillingham win or draw
- 56%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Grimsby Town win or draw
- 71%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 56%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Gillingham and 1.6 from Grimsby Town. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (7%), 0–2 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 28% | 27% | 45% | 53% |
| Goals model | 47% | 28% | 26% | 48% |
| AI analysts | 43% | 28% | 29% | 53% |
| Our forecast | 29% | 27% | 44% | 56% |
Verdict: Our final probabilities shift toward the home side due to the strong defensive record and recent unbeaten run of Gillingham. The Sceptic's view, emphasizing Grimsby's defensive fragility and poor form, aligns most closely with our adjusted model.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Gillingham: last 6
DLWWDL · 10 scored, 11 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Port Vale | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Accrington ST | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Brighton U21 EFL Trophy | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Rotherham | 4–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs Newport County | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | at York | 0–3 | L |
Last 5 at home: DWDLW
Grimsby Town: last 6
DLLDLL · 4 scored, 9 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Rochdale | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs Northampton | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Port Vale | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Burton Albion EFL Trophy | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Shrewsbury | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Newport County | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: DLLLD
Season stats
| Gillingham | Grimsby Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.42 | Goals scored per game | 1.25 |
| 1.17 | Goals conceded per game | 1.25 |
| 1.17 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 1.17 |
| 50% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored | 50% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 2.58 | Yellow cards per game | 1.75 |
League matches only, 12 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Gillingham | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Exeter City | 13 | +3 | 19 | WWDWW |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 13 | +6 | 18 | WDWDW |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | -4 | 18 | DWWLW |
| 11 | Grimsby Town | 13 | +3 | 17 | WDLLL |
| 12 | Gillingham | 13 | +0 | 17 | LDLWD |
| 13 | Tranmere | 13 | +0 | 16 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Swindon Town | 13 | -3 | 16 | DWDLL |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | -4 | 16 | DLLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Gillingham won 0, Grimsby Town 4, 2 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Gillingham | 1–4 | Grimsby Town | League Two |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Grimsby Town | 1–0 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 28 Jan 2025 | Grimsby Town | 1–1 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 1 Oct 2024 | Gillingham | 0–1 | Grimsby Town | League Two |
| 16 Mar 2024 | Gillingham | 1–1 | Grimsby Town | League Two |
| 2 Sep 2023 | Grimsby Town | 2–0 | Gillingham | League Two |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1O. Wright
Defenders
- 5A. Smith
- 19O. Beckles
- 20J. Daley
Midfielders
- 22N. Freeman
- 14R. McKenzie
- 8A. Little
- 3Conor McManus
Forwards
- 12G. McCleary
- 10Ronan Hale
- 16J. Brophy
Substitutes (7)
- 6E. Coleman
- 23B. Dack
- 39T. Eaves
- 40R. Luthra
- 24H. Waldock
- 26L. Dobbs
- 18S. Kendall
Goalkeeper
- 31C. Pym
Defenders
- 5H. Rodgers
- 2M. Kacurri
- 12J. Foulkes
- 9Iwan Morgan
Midfielders
- 15G. Turi
- 14J. Amaluzor
- 4K. Green
- 7J. Walker
- 30C. Vernam
Forward
- 39A. Cook
Substitutes (7)
- 29M. Shelton
- 10S. Finch
- 8Cian Doyle
- 1H. Cartwright
- 11Ryley Reynolds
- 28F. Cartwright
- 19J. Andrews
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
Key facts
- Gillingham sits in seventh place in League Two with 17 points from 12 matches.[3]
- Gillingham has been unbeaten in its last five league fixtures at home.[3]
- Grimsby Town is currently in seventeenth place with 14 points from 12 games.[3]
- Grimsby Town has been winless in its last five league matches.[3]
- Grimsby Town recently switched to a back three formation during its match against Rochdale.[4]
Sources
- grimsbytelegraph.co.uk – Grimsby Town at Gillingham - Mariners feeling positive ahead of trip to Kent - Grimsby Live (2026-10-24)
- gtfc.co.uk – Match Preview: Gillingham (A) - Grimsby Town Football Club (2026-10-22)
- gtfc.co.uk – Every word: Tom Culshaw’s pre-Gillingham presser - Grimsby Town Football Club (2026-10-22)
Match context
- Stadium
- Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham, Kent
- 11,582 seats · grass
- Travel for Grimsby Town
- 245 km
- Rest days
- Gillingham 3Grimsby Town 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Gillingham 3 · Grimsby Town 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 22 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- G. Ainsworth
- Gillingham, since Mar 2025
- D. Artell
- Grimsby Town, since Nov 2023
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.54 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
