Cheltenham Town vs Newport County prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Cheltenham 39%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 50% · bookies 50% · ✓ 1 goals
The Verdict
Our final numbers moved away from the bookmakers' by reducing the away probability by one percentage point, which is a minor adjustment. The view of The Coach was not followed, as the shift suggested by it was the largest among the analysts.
What our AI analysts say
All three think Cheltenham Town's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsCheltenham sits fifth in League Two, having recently won 4-2 at home. Both teams have announced their starting lineups for the fixture.
Cheltenham: clearly underrated
More goalsMed✓ Right The Dressing Room
mood and pressureCheltenham's midweek win and Newport's poor Whaddon Road record tip this home way
Newport have won just once in eight EFL visits to Whaddon Road, and Cheltenham have won all of the last five head-to-head meetings.
Cheltenham: clearly underrated
More goalsMed✓ Right The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe model tilts home (43%) against a market near even, and expected goals sit close to the 2.5 line.
Cheltenham: slightly underrated
More goalsLow✓ Right AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
This League Two fixture features Cheltenham Town at home against Newport County. Cheltenham enters the match in strong form, bolstered by a recent high-scoring victory, while Newport has struggled significantly in their away fixtures, particularly at Whaddon Road.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Cheltenham Town win or draw
- 66%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Newport County win or draw
- 62%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 54%
- No
- 46%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Cheltenham Town and 1.3 from Newport County. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 38% | 27% | 35% | 50% |
| Goals model | 43% | 25% | 33% | 64% |
| AI analysts | 45% | 25% | 29% | 61% |
| Our forecast | 38% | 27% | 34% | 50% |
Verdict: Our final probabilities remain very close to the market, reflecting the strong home advantage for Cheltenham Town. The slight reduction in the away probability reflects the historical struggles of Newport County at this venue.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Cheltenham Town: last 6
WLDLLW · 9 scored, 13 conceded
| 20 Oct | vs Fleetwood Town | 4–2 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Oldham | 1–4 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Salford City | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | at Accrington ST | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Chesterfield | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDLWD
Newport County: last 6
DDWDDW · 8 scored, 6 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Rotherham | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs York | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Colchester | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Plymouth EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Gillingham | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Grimsby | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 away: DDWDL
Season stats
| Cheltenham Town | Newport County | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 | Goals scored per game | 1.33 |
| 1.83 | Goals conceded per game | 1.25 |
| 2.17 | Scored per game at home | 1.67 |
| 1.33 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 75% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 83% | Both teams scored | 58% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 2.67 | Yellow cards per game | 1.75 |
League matches only, 12 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Cheltenham Town | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League Two table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 12 | +7 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Barnet | 11 | +8 | 22 | DLWWW |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 13 | +0 | 21 | WWLLL |
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | +0 | 21 | LLWWW |
| 5 | York | 12 | +8 | 20 | WDDDW |
| 6 | Walsall | 11 | +9 | 19 | WDDDW |
| … | |||||
| 13 | Tranmere | 13 | +0 | 16 | DWLDL |
| 14 | Swindon Town | 13 | -3 | 16 | DWDLL |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | -4 | 16 | DLLLL |
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | +0 | 15 | LDDWD |
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | -7 | 15 | LDLDW |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | -2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | +0 | 13 | WLWDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Cheltenham Town won 5, Newport County 1, 0 draws; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Cheltenham Town | 1–0 | Newport County | League Two |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Newport County | 0–2 | Cheltenham Town | League Two |
| 22 Feb 2025 | Newport County | 0–3 | Cheltenham Town | League Two |
| 3 Sep 2024 | Newport County | 1–2 | Cheltenham Town | EFL Trophy |
| 10 Aug 2024 | Cheltenham Town | 3–2 | Newport County | League Two |
| 10 Oct 2023 | Cheltenham Town | 0–2 | Newport County | EFL Trophy |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 23W. Stanway
Defenders
- 3J. Tomkinson
- 25P. Sweeney
- 6J. Wilson
- 26J. Shipley
Midfielders
- 7B. Stevenson
- 33F. Willcox
- 19J. Evans
- 8C. McCann
- 9K. Otchere
Forward
- 18A. Weimann
Substitutes (6)
- 11J. Bickerstaff
- 14R. Broom
- 31M. Diallo
- 10G. Miller
- 21G. Nurse
- 20Favour Onukwuli
Goalkeeper
- 1J. Wright
Defenders
- 22C. Norman
- 5L. Jenkins
- 4K. Cameron
- 12Joe Thomas
Midfielders
- 24M. Dibley-Dias
- 6C. Brennan
- 23M. Adu-Poku
- 10H. Biggins
- 20Y. Bamba
Forward
- 19G. Garner
Substitutes (7)
- 8M. Smith
- 34D. Sassi
- 33S. MacDonald
- 7K. Evans
- 2C. Evans
- 28K. Etete
- 3T. Davies
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
Key facts
- Cheltenham Town currently occupies fifth place in League Two with 18 points from 12 matches.[1]
- The home side has a strong league record at EV Charger Points Stadium, having secured four wins, one draw, and one loss this season.[1]
- Newport County is positioned in 12th place in the table with 15 points from 12 games.[1]
- Newport's away form is poor, with only one win recorded across eight previous EFL visits to Whaddon Road.[1]
- Cheltenham secured their most recent result with a 4-2 win against Fleetwood Town.[1]
- The head-to-head record indicates that Cheltenham has led the last five encounters by a score of 5-0.[1]
Sources
- gloucestershirelive.co.uk – Cheltenham Town v Newport County AFC LIVE: Team news, updates and reaction - Gloucestershire Live (2026-10-23)
Match context
- Stadium
- Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Cheltenham, Gloucestershire
- 7,066 seats · grass
- Travel for Newport County
- 72 km
- Rest days
- Cheltenham Town 3Newport County 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Cheltenham Town 4 · Newport County 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 10°C · wind 23 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- S. Cotterill
- Cheltenham Town, since Aug 2026
- H. Mullins
- Newport County, since Aug 2026
- Goals in this league
- League Two average: 2.54 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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