Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Plymouth Argyle 37%)
Goals call3+ goals 51% · bookies 51% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers' because the availability picture cuts both ways and the market already reflects the table. The Sceptic's 4-point home shift was not followed, since Argyle's returning defenders and strong away record offset Stevenage's home profile.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Dressing Room thinks Plymouth Argyle are underrated; The Sceptic thinks Stevenage are underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsArgyle's returning defenders offset their midfield absences in a tight, attritional contest.
Argyle are without Boateng, Baidoo and Oseni, but Hartridge returns after a month out, Irow comes back into the XI and Edwards is fit to start. Stevenage lose Marcal and Freestone's knock forces Earley in at left-back. Revell's direct 4-2-3-1 meets Cleverley's 4-4-2 in an expected war of attrition.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressure— under
Stevenage sit 12th with 12 points from 9 and lost 2-0 at Bradford on Saturday. Plymouth slipped 1st to 4th after a 'humbling' 2-0 home defeat to Huddersfield, but Cleverley has demanded a reaction and Argyle have taken 10 of 15 away points. Stevenage have won five of their last six before that defeat.
Plymouth Argyle: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket may underprice Stevenage's home strength in a near coin-flip with Argyle's H2H edge offsetting it - lean home.
H2H strongly favours Argyle (4 wins in last 5), yet the market barely prices them ahead of Stevenage (36.8% vs 35.4%). A statistical model built on goals and results puts the hosts at 41%, above the market's 35.4%. Stevenage are hard to beat at Broadhall Way.
Stevenage: slightly underrated
Low✓ Right AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Two sides coming off weekend defeats meet at Broadhall Way. Stevenage are tough at home but sit 12th, while fourth-placed Argyle have one of the league's best away records. Argyle regain several defenders but miss three midfield or attacking players.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Stevenage win or draw
- 63%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Plymouth Argyle win or draw
- 64%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Stevenage and 1.4 from Plymouth Argyle. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 35% | 28% | 37% | 51% |
| Goals model | 41% | 28% | 31% | 49% |
| AI analysts | 39% | 28% | 33% | 50% |
| Our forecast | 36% | 28% | 37% | 51% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because the factors cut both ways: Argyle's strong away record and returning defenders are offset by three absences and Stevenage's home solidity, leaving a near coin-flip with a slight away lean.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Stevenage: last 6
LWWWLW · 11 scored, 6 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Bradford | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Wigan | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Leicester EFL Trophy | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Walsall EFL Trophy | 6–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Leyton Orient | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Sep | vs Luton | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWDL
Plymouth Argyle: last 6
LWDWLW · 11 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Huddersfield | 0–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs AFC Wimbledon | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Oct | at Newport County EFL Trophy | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Oct | at Leyton Orient | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Burton Albion | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Crystal Palace U21 EFL Trophy | 5–1 | W |
Last 5 away: DWWWL
Season stats
| Stevenage | Plymouth Argyle | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 1.64 |
| 1.11 | Goals conceded per game | 1.27 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.33 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 45% |
| 56% | Both teams scored | 45% |
| 22% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 1.56 | Yellow cards per game | 1.36 |
League matches only, 9 and 11 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Stevenage | Plymouth Argyle |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League One table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 12 | +13 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Stockport County | 12 | +12 | 23 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Bradford | 12 | +5 | 22 | DDWDD |
| 4 | Plymouth Argyle | 13 | +2 | 22 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Reading | 12 | +12 | 21 | WWLWD |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 12 | +3 | 20 | LDWWD |
| 7 | Oxford United | 10 | +8 | 19 | DWDWD |
| … | |||||
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 11 | +4 | 18 | WWDWD |
| 10 | Luton | 11 | +2 | 17 | WWLWL |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 13 | -1 | 17 | WDDLL |
| 12 | Stevenage | 11 | +4 | 15 | LWLWL |
| 13 | Leicester | 11 | +0 | 15 | LWWLD |
| 14 | Wycombe | 12 | -4 | 15 | DDWLD |
| 15 | Leyton Orient | 12 | +2 | 14 | LLWDL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Stevenage won 0, Plymouth Argyle 5, 1 draw; 2.7 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar 2026 | Plymouth Argyle | 1–0 | Stevenage | League One |
| 1 Jan 2026 | Stevenage | 1–1 | Plymouth Argyle | League One |
| 25 Jan 2020 | Stevenage | 1–2 | Plymouth Argyle | League Two |
| 29 Dec 2019 | Plymouth Argyle | 2–1 | Stevenage | League Two |
| 10 Nov 2018 | Plymouth Argyle | 1–0 | Stevenage | FA Cup |
| 14 Jan 2017 | Plymouth Argyle | 4–2 | Stevenage | League Two |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1T. Setford
Defenders
- 2L. James-Wildin
- 15T. Vancooten
- 5C. Piergianni
- 14S. Earley
Midfielders
- 28M. Mellon
- 23L. Thompson
- 8D. Phillips
- 27B. Broggio
- 10D. Kemp
Forward
- 9J. Magennis
Substitutes (7)
- 12D. Barden
- 20C. Campbell
- 16K. Casey
- 44P. Patterson
- 18O. Sanderson
- 4T. Taylor
- 19T. Turhan
Goalkeeper
- 1M. Mahoney
Defenders
- 8J. Edwards
- 15A. Mitchell
- 22A. Hartridge
- 45W. Harding
Midfielders
- 11R. Curtis
- 19T. Bakinson
- 7H. White
- 14O. Irow
Forwards
- 9W. Evans
- 27A. Pepple
Substitutes (7)
- 17C. Watts
- 21James Storer
- 29M. Sorinola
- 5Julio Pleguezuelo
- 3Jack Mackenzie
- 23B. Ibrahim
- 10X. Amaechi
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
| Player | Team | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi Boateng | Plymouth Argyle | Out | [1] |
| Michael Baidoo | Plymouth Argyle | Out | [1] |
| Owen Oseni | Plymouth Argyle | Out | [1] |
| Joe Mwaro | Plymouth Argyle | Out | [1] |
| Joe Edwards | Plymouth Argyle | Doubt | [1][5] |
| Mathias Ross | Plymouth Argyle | Doubt | [5] |
| Oli Irow | Plymouth Argyle | Returning | [5] |
| Alex Hartridge | Plymouth Argyle | Returning | [2] |
| Julio Pleguezuelo | Plymouth Argyle | Returning | [5] |
| Lewis Freestone | Stevenage | Doubt | [3] |
| Wanya Marcal | Stevenage | Doubt | [3] |
Key facts
- Stevenage sit 12th in League One with 12 points from 9 games, while Plymouth Argyle are 4th with 19 points from 11.[2][3][5]
- Stevenage lost 2-0 at Bradford City on 17 October, their second defeat since the start of September.[1][2]
- Argyle slipped from first to fourth after a 2-0 home defeat to Huddersfield in which they managed one shot on target.[5][8]
- Argyle have taken 10 of a possible 15 away points this season and perform better on the road than at Home Park.[3][5][8]
- Stevenage play a direct, defensive 4-2-3-1 under Alex Revell, with the league's second-lowest possession share at 43.5%.[3]
- Stevenage beat Argyle to last season's play-off places with a stoppage-time winner on the final day.[2][3]
- Argyle have lost three of six home league games but their away form has been strong throughout 2026.[5][8]
- Goalkeeper Tommy Setford, on loan from Arsenal, is Stevenage's first choice, with Josh Magennis usually leading the line.[3]
Sources
- pafc.co.uk – Preview | Stevenage (A) - Plymouth Argyle - PAFC (2026-10-20)
- plymouthherald.co.uk – Alex Hartridge expecting 'proper battle' for Plymouth Argyle at Stevenage - Plymouth Live (2026-10-20)
- argyle.life – Preview: Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle - Argyle Life (2026-10-19)
- plymouthherald.co.uk – Plymouth Argyle team news for Stevenage game with Oli Irow set to return - Plymouth Live (2026-10-19)
- bbc.co.uk – Cleverley wants reaction after 'humbling' defeat (2026-10-19)
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- The Lamex Stadium, Stevenage, Hertfordshire
- 7,100 seats · grass
- Travel for Plymouth Argyle
- 323 km
- Rest days
- Stevenage 3Plymouth Argyle 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Stevenage 2 · Plymouth Argyle 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 10 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- A. Revell
- Stevenage, since Aug 2020
- Tom Cleverley
- Plymouth Argyle, since Aug 2026
- Goals in this league
- League One average: 2.84 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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