AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Mansfield to win: 46%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 58% · bookies 53% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
Our headline probabilities stay close to the bookmakers', but we move over 2.5 up by five points to 58%, reflecting Wimbledon's likely need to respond at home despite low-scoring recent form on both sides. The Sceptic's view was not followed: its case for nudging the home win up relied on a bounce-back after one bad result, and with thin data and Mansfield's settled side we kept the market's 28/26/46 split.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Mansfield Town's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsMansfield's settled side faces a Wimbledon team reshuffled after a heavy defeat.
Wimbledon name a 5-4-1 with Jackson hinting at changes after the 5-0 loss, saying starters are 'lucky' to keep shirts. Mansfield field a 3-1-4-2 with Michael Smith and Bowery up front; no absences reported for either club.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureMansfield steadier form and mood vs a Wimbledon side reeling from a 5-0 rout.
Mansfield are unbeaten in three of their last five (W 2-1 vs Bolton, D vs Oxford). Wimbledon sit 15th on 12 points with GD -8; Mansfield 13th on 12 with GD -2.
Mansfield: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✓ Right The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket overrates Mansfield; Wimbledon's home response after the 5-0 loss is undervalued.
Wimbledon's 5-0 defeat was their heaviest league loss since last November, and the manager says selected players 'need to know they're lucky' - he expects a reaction at home. Mansfield have won just one of their last five. The market-blind model rates this near a coin flip (33/29/39), tighter than the market's 27.8% home price.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
AFC Wimbledon host Mansfield Town in League One on Tuesday night. Wimbledon arrive off a 5-0 defeat at Sheffield Wednesday, with manager Johnnie Jackson publicly criticising his squad and hinting at changes. Mansfield are unbeaten at home this season but have not won away in the league.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- AFC Wimbledon win or draw
- 54%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Mansfield Town win or draw
- 72%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 80%
- 3+ goals
- 57%
- 4+ goals
- 35%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 59%
- No
- 41%
We expect about 1.3 goals from AFC Wimbledon and 1.7 from Mansfield Town. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 0–2 (7%), 2–1 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 28% | 26% | 46% | 53% |
| Goals model | 33% | 29% | 39% | 46% |
| AI analysts | 29% | 29% | 42% | 65% |
| Our forecast | 28% | 26% | 46% | 58% |
Verdict: Our match probabilities stay at the market level because the qualitative signals point in opposite directions: Wimbledon's home record and expected response offset Mansfield's steadier form. We raise over 2.5 to 58% above the market's 53%, weighting Wimbledon's need to attack at home against both sides' generally low-scoring recent games.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
AFC Wimbledon: last 6
LLDDDW · 3 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Sheffield Wednesday | 0–5 | L |
| 10 Oct | at Plymouth | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Oct | vs Barnet EFL Trophy | 0–0 | D |
| 26 Sep | at Cambridge United | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Sep | vs Milton Keynes Dons | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Doncaster | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: DDWWD
Mansfield Town: last 6
DWLDDL · 5 scored, 7 conceded
| 15 Oct | vs Oxford United | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Bromley | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Oct | at Port Vale EFL Trophy | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Burton Albion | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Huddersfield | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Bradford | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: LDLLL
Season stats
| AFC Wimbledon | Mansfield Town | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.70 | Goals scored per game | 1.44 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.67 |
| 0.50 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 0.83 | Scored per game away | 0.75 |
| 40% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 30% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 11% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 1.60 | Yellow cards per game | 2.33 |
League matches only, 10 and 9 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | AFC Wimbledon | Mansfield Town |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League One table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cambridge United | 12 | +3 | 20 | LDWWD |
| 7 | Oxford United | 10 | +8 | 19 | DWDWD |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 11 | +8 | 18 | LLWDD |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 11 | +4 | 18 | WWDWD |
| 10 | Luton | 11 | +2 | 17 | WWLWL |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 13 | -1 | 17 | WDDLL |
| 12 | Stevenage | 11 | +4 | 15 | LWLWL |
| 13 | Leicester | 11 | +0 | 15 | LWWLD |
| 14 | Wycombe | 12 | -4 | 15 | DDWLD |
| 15 | Leyton Orient | 12 | +2 | 14 | LLWDL |
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | -11 | 13 | DLLLD |
| 17 | Doncaster | 11 | -1 | 12 | WLLWW |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 11 | -6 | 12 | WLWLD |
| 19 | Notts County | 11 | -3 | 11 | DWLLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: AFC Wimbledon won 1, Mansfield Town 2, 3 draws; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Mansfield Town | 2–2 | AFC Wimbledon | League One |
| 13 Dec 2025 | AFC Wimbledon | 0–0 | Mansfield Town | League One |
| 27 Jan 2024 | AFC Wimbledon | 2–1 | Mansfield Town | League Two |
| 7 Oct 2023 | Mansfield Town | 0–0 | AFC Wimbledon | League Two |
| 4 Mar 2023 | AFC Wimbledon | 1–3 | Mansfield Town | League Two |
| 16 Aug 2022 | Mansfield Town | 5–2 | AFC Wimbledon | League Two |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 39J. Bursik
Defenders
- 17A. Yiadom
- 15F. Simmonds
- 6R. Johnson
- 3S. Seddon
- 29A. Sasu
Midfielders
- 8C. Maycock
- 10Z. Nelson
- 12A. Smith
- 21M. Hippolyte
Forward
- 9J. Stockley
Substitutes (7)
- 23H. Cornick
- 5O. Harrison
- 20J. McDonnell
- 2S. Sessegnon
- 7J. Tilley
- 25S. Goma
- 22R. Horan
Goalkeeper
- 1L. Roberts
Defenders
- 9J. Bowery
- 23A. Oshilaja
- 5R. Sweeney
Midfielders
- 25L. Reed
- 22N. Moriah-Welsh
- 33G. Abbott
- 16L. Thompson
- 3S. McLaughlin
Forwards
- 14M. Smith
- 13J. Russell
Substitutes (7)
- 19T. Roberts
- 18R. Oates
- 10G. Maris
- 2K. Knoyle
- 24R. Hendry
- 8L. Bolton
- 20F. Blake-Tracy
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
No confirmed absences reported.
Key facts
- AFC Wimbledon sit 15th with 12 points from 10 league games, while Mansfield Town are 13th with 12 points from 9.[1][2]
- Wimbledon are unbeaten at home in the league this season with two wins and two draws, but have lost four of six away.[1][2]
- Mansfield have won three and drawn two of their five home league games but are without an away league win, with one draw and three defeats.[1][2]
- Jackson said players selected against Mansfield 'need to know they're lucky' to start after the Hillsborough performance.[1][2]
- Jackson expects a positive reaction as after previous heavy defeats and sees the upcoming home games as a chance to 'right some of the wrongs'.[1][2]
Sources
Off the pitch
Match context
- Stadium
- The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London
- 9,300 seats · grass
- Travel for Mansfield Town
- 194 km
- Rest days
- AFC Wimbledon 3Mansfield Town 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: AFC Wimbledon 2 · Mansfield Town 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 7 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- J. Jackson
- AFC Wimbledon, since May 2022
- N. Clough
- Mansfield Town, since Nov 2020
- Goals in this league
- League One average: 2.84 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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