Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Sheffield Wednesday to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 53% · bookies 52% · ✗ 2 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', as the four-point lean toward Notts County from The Dressing Room is offset by The Coach's three points toward Sheffield Wednesday and The Sceptic's two points against County. The Coach's view was not followed in full because the confirmed rotation doubts and Lumley's absence temper the case for a near full-strength away side.
What our AI analysts say
Our analysts are split: The Coach thinks Sheffield Wednesday are underrated; The Dressing Room thinks Notts County are underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsFull-strength Wednesday lineup too strong for County's changed side on the road. (under.
Sheffield Wednesday name a near full-strength XI with Bannan, Cooper and Bernard all starting despite rest doubts, plus Keillor-Dunn after his eye-catching display. Goalkeeper Joe Lumley remains out with a rib injury. Notts County's availability picture is unknown in sources.
Sheffield Wednesday: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureWednesday's momentum edges it, but rotation after the 5-0 win opens the door for County.
Wednesday arrive on a high after thrashing Wimbledon 5-0, with Keillor-Dunn catching the eye. County thumped Forest U21s 5-1 in the EFL Trophy. Both had only three days' rest; Wednesday's dressing room is stretched by injuries, with unscathed games 'a rarity'.
Notts: slightly underrated
Low✓ Right The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongWednesday's depth should edge a rotated side past County in Nottingham.
Market has Wednesday near 45%, the goals-only model 54%, and the head-to-head sits 4-1 to the away side. Over 2.5 is priced around 52% against a 2.84 goals-per-game league environment. The away price looks the most likely mispricing.
Notts: slightly overrated
Low AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Sheffield Wednesday arrive in strong form after a 5-0 win over AFC Wimbledon, but face a short turnaround and rotation questions. Joe Lumley is out with a rib injury, while several senior players may be rested. Notts County have no reported absences but no team news either.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Notts County win or draw
- 55%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Sheffield Wednesday win or draw
- 71%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 77%
- 3+ goals
- 53%
- 4+ goals
- 30%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Notts County and 1.6 from Sheffield Wednesday. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 0–2 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 29% | 26% | 45% | 52% |
| Goals model | 20% | 26% | 54% | 50% |
| AI analysts | 23% | 26% | 51% | 52% |
| Our forecast | 29% | 26% | 45% | 53% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay at the market level because the rotation concerns raised in the preview are largely offset by the expected near-full-strength Wednesday side, and County's own availability picture is unclear.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Notts County: last 6
LWLWLL · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Wycombe | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Nottingham Forest U21 EFL Trophy | 5–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Oxford United | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Sep | vs Grimsby EFL Trophy | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Reading | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Bradford | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLWLW
Sheffield Wednesday: last 6
WDWWDD · 11 scored, 3 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs AFC Wimbledon | 5–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Huddersfield | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Oct | vs Sunderland U21 EFL Trophy | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | at Salford City EFL Trophy | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Stockport County | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Wigan | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: DWWWW
Season stats
| Notts County | Sheffield Wednesday | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.89 | Goals scored per game | 2.22 |
| 1.44 | Goals conceded per game | 0.89 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.40 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 2.00 |
| 33% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 56% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 2.67 | Yellow cards per game | 2.11 |
League matches only, 9 games each.
When goals come
| Minutes | Notts County | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League One table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Reading | 12 | +12 | 21 | WWLWD |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 12 | +3 | 20 | LDWWD |
| 7 | Oxford United | 10 | +8 | 19 | DWDWD |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 11 | +8 | 18 | LLWDD |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 11 | +4 | 18 | WWDWD |
| 10 | Luton | 11 | +2 | 17 | WWLWL |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 13 | -1 | 17 | WDDLL |
| … | |||||
| 16 | AFC Wimbledon | 12 | -11 | 13 | DLLLD |
| 17 | Doncaster | 11 | -1 | 12 | WLLWW |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 11 | -6 | 12 | WLWLD |
| 19 | Notts County | 11 | -3 | 11 | DWLLL |
| 20 | Blackpool | 11 | -4 | 11 | LWLLL |
| 21 | Peterborough | 12 | -10 | 10 | DLDWL |
| 22 | Bromley | 11 | -16 | 9 | DLLLW |
Head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Notts County won 0, Sheffield Wednesday 3, 0 draws; 3.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2014 | Sheffield Wednesday | 3–0 | Notts County | League Cup |
| 17 Mar 2012 | Notts County | 1–2 | Sheffield Wednesday | League One |
| 20 Aug 2011 | Sheffield Wednesday | 2–1 | Notts County | League One |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1J. Gibbons
Defenders
- 12L. Ness
- 3R. McDonald
- 4J. Bedeau
Midfielders
- 25N. Tsaroulla
- 27R. Finneran
- 20S. Robertson
- 26I. Samuels-Smith
- 19L. Smyth
- 11C. Grant
Forward
- 9D. Kanu
Substitutes (7)
- 6M. Sanders
- 15J. Evans
- 2J. Gibbons
- 14D. Lipsiuc
- 10R. Longelo-Mbule
- 39L. Ndlovu
- 7C. Roberts
Goalkeeper
- 13A. Maynard-Brewer
Defenders
- 7Y. Valery
- 5D. Bernard
- 6L. Cooper
- 33R. James
Midfielders
- 10B. Bannan
- 18Jaden Heskey
- 8C. Slattery
- 50D. Keillor-Dunn
- 24H. Gray
Forward
- 9J. Lowe
Substitutes (7)
- 12Ali Al Hamadi
- 16B. Mitchell
- 20K. Morrison
- 22G. Otegbayo
- 3M. Lowe
- 2L. Palmer
- 27C. Trueman
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
Key facts
- Sheffield Wednesday won 5-0 at home to AFC Wimbledon on Saturday, with Davis Keillor-Dunn catching the eye.[1]
- Wednesday face a short turnaround between Saturday's win and this Tuesday fixture.[1]
- Wednesday's injury situation is described as difficult, with getting through a game unscathed called somewhat of a rarity.[1]
- Joe Lumley is out for around two to three weeks with a rib injury, per manager Henrik Pedersen.[1]
- Liam Cooper, Barry Bannan and Di'Shon Bernard are candidates to be rested after the quick turnaround.[1]
- Notts County beat Nottingham Forest under-21s 5-1 in the EFL Trophy to reach the second round.[3]
- Wednesday were earlier beaten by Wigan despite their league position suggesting otherwise.[1]
- Both clubs have learned their FA Cup first-round opponents.[2]
Sources
- vitalfootball.co.uk – Sheffield Wednesday Predicted 11 vs Notts County: More of the Same? - Vital Football (2026-10-20)
- bbc.co.uk – Leicester to visit Oxford City in FA Cup first round (2026-10-19)
- bbc.co.uk – Richarlison scores as Spurs under-21s lose in EFL Trophy (2026-10-13)
Match context
- Stadium
- Meadow Lane, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
- 19,588 seats · grass
- Travel for Sheffield Wednesday
- 52 km
- Rest days
- Notts County 3Sheffield Wednesday 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Notts County 3 · Sheffield Wednesday 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 11°C · wind 7 km/h
- Rain expected
- Coaches
- M. Paterson
- Notts County, since Jul 2025
- H. Pedersen
- Sheffield Wednesday, since Jul 2025
- Goals in this league
- League One average: 2.84 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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