‹ League One · Matchday 12
Oxford United 8thDWDWW
2–1
UK time (GMT)
Full time
Wigan Athletic 24thWLLDL

Oxford United vs Wigan Athletic prediction

Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works

KickoffHour pre-match forecast

Who wins?

Oxford to win: 49%, about 1 in 2

Oxford49%Bookies 50
Draw26%Bookies 26
Wigan25%Bookies 24

Goals call3+ goals 51% · bookies 52% · ✓ 3 goals

The Verdict

Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers' - only a single point off on the home side - because the suspensions affecting both teams largely offset each other. The Sceptic's view, which nudged Oxford up based on its model, was not followed, since Wigan's 1-0 win over Reading and their attacking absences on both sides made us hesitant to stretch the home edge.

✓ Favourite won (Oxford 49%) Ledger record ↗

What our AI analysts say

2 of 3 think Wigan Athletic's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Wigan Athletic favourites. The Sceptic thinks Oxford United are underrated.

The Coach

tactics and lineups

Oxford's deeper squad edges a Wigan side missing key attackers and Carragher.

Oxford lose Kioso and O'Donkor to suspension but keep Brannagan, Helik and Harris in a 4-2-3-1. Wigan's 3-4-2-1 is hit harder: Carragher suspended, Fox listed despite a calf injury, and Higgins, Trevitt, Harris and Costelloe all out, leaving Hogan as the lone focal point.

Wigan AthleticWigan: slightly underrated Low✗ Wrong

The Dressing Room

mood and pressure

Oxford unbeaten in five at home against a bottom side still finding wins rare.

Oxford are unbeaten in five and sit 8th with games in hand; Wigan are bottom, with last weekend's 1-0 win over Reading their first league win after a four-match winless run. Wigan have not strung back-to-back league wins together since April.

Wigan AthleticWigan: slightly underrated Low✗ Wrong

The Sceptic

where the market may be wrong

Market may shade Oxford's home edge too cheaply

Market has Oxford 48.4%, draw 27.0%, Wigan 24.6%. H2H: Wigan won 8 of prior 12, including 3-2 at Kassam in Dec 2021; Oxford won 4-2 in Feb 2024. Model sees 65% home and 52% over 2.5; competition scoring runs 2.84 goals per game.

Oxford UnitedOxford: slightly underrated Low✓ Right

AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best

In short

Oxford, eighth with a strong home record, host bottom-of-the-table Wigan, who just ended a four-match winless league run with a 1-0 win over Reading. Both sides miss suspended players, and Wigan are also without several attackers. Our numbers stay close to the market, with Oxford modestly favoured.

More markets

Win or draw (double chance)

Oxford United win or draw
76%
Either team wins (no draw)
74%
Wigan Athletic win or draw
51%

Goals in the match (over/under)

2+ goals
75%
3+ goals
51%
4+ goals
29%

Both teams score (BTTS)

Yes
53%
No
47%

We expect about 1.6 goals from Oxford United and 1.1 from Wigan Athletic. (expected goals)

Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 0–1 (7%).

How we got to these numbers
Home = Oxford United win, Away = Wigan Athletic win.
HomeDrawAway3+ goals
Bookmakers50%26%24%52%
Goals model65%22%13%52%
AI analysts59%24%17%51%
Our forecast49%26%24%51%

Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology

Prediction history
#PublishedHomeDrawAwayReasonRecord
1 48%27%25%First analysis#339
2 49%26%24%Official lineups#382

Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).

Form

All competitions, newest first.

Oxford United: last 6

DWDDWW · 13 scored, 5 conceded

15 Octat Mansfield Town1–1D
10 Octat Notts County2–1W
6 Octat Exeter City EFL Trophy2–2D
19 Sepvs Cambridge United1–1D
12 Sepvs Burton Albion3–0W
5 Sepat Leicester4–0W

Last 3 at home: DWD

Wigan Athletic: last 6

WLWLDL · 4 scored, 8 conceded

17 Octvs Reading1–0W
10 Octat Stevenage0–1L
22 Sepvs Blackpool EFL Trophy3–2W
19 Sepvs Wycombe0–1L
12 Sepat Sheffield Wednesday0–0D
5 Sepvs Stockport County0–4L

Last 5 away: LDLLD

Season stats

Oxford UnitedWigan Athletic
2.00Goals scored per game0.67
1.12Goals conceded per game1.44
2.00Scored per game at home0.80
2.00Scored per game away0.50
75%Matches over 2.5 goals33%
75%Both teams scored22%
25%Clean sheets22%
0%Failed to score67%
2.00Yellow cards per game2.67

League matches only, 8 and 9 games.

When goals come

Goals scored this season by 15-minute period.
MinutesOxford UnitedWigan Athletic
0–15 min 20
16–30 min 20
31–45 min 21
46–60 min 21
61–75 min 25
76–90 min 80

League One table

#TeamPldGoal diff.PointsLeague form
4Plymouth13+222WLLWW
5Reading12+1221WWLWD
6Cambridge United12+320LDWWD
7Oxford United10+819DWDWD
8Sheffield Wednesday11+818LLWDD
9Mansfield Town11+418WWDWD
10Luton11+217WWLWL
…
21Peterborough12-1010DLDWL
22Bromley11-169DLLLW
23Barnsley11-108LLLLD
24Wigan Athletic11-97LLWLL

Full League One table · Predicted final table

Head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Oxford United won 3, Wigan Athletic 2, 1 draw; 3.5 goals per game.

DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
13 Feb 2024Oxford United4–2Wigan AthleticLeague One
24 Oct 2023Wigan Athletic2–0Oxford UnitedLeague One
1 Feb 2022Wigan Athletic1–1Oxford UnitedLeague One
18 Dec 2021Oxford United2–3Wigan AthleticLeague One
14 Feb 2021Oxford United2–1Wigan AthleticLeague One
21 Nov 2020Wigan Athletic1–2Oxford UnitedLeague One

Team news: lineups Confirmed

Oxford United4-2-3-1

Goalkeeper

  • 1J. Cumming

Defenders

  • 15B. Spencer
  • 6M. Helik
  • 3C. Brown
  • 26J. Currie

Midfielders

  • 8C. Brannagan
  • 4Kai Andrews
  • 57M. Missanga
  • 11T. Goodrham
  • 23S. Dembélé

Forward

  • 9M. Harris
Substitutes (7)
  • 20L. Lynch
  • 2S. Long
  • 22G. Leigh
  • 10A. Emakhu
  • 13S. Eastwood
  • 32L. Sibley
  • 27L. Snowden
Wigan Athletic4-2-3-1

Goalkeeper

  • 41J. Whitworth

Defenders

  • 4J. Chilokoa-Mullen
  • 5F. Burns
  • 3M. Fox
  • 16Archie Harris

Midfielders

  • 18Charlie Gray
  • 6J. Weir
  • 2C. Barrett
  • 27B. Burrows
  • 7F. Murray

Forward

  • 25S. Hogan
Substitutes (7)
  • 22J. Mellish
  • 21K'Marni Miller
  • 38C. Saydee
  • 9S. Perkins
  • 19C. Sze
  • 1J. Walsh
  • 10R. Walsh

Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).

Team news: injuries and suspensions

PlayerTeamStatusSource
James CarragherWigan AthleticSuspended[1]
Morgan FoxWigan AthleticOut[1]
Akeel HigginsWigan AthleticOut[1]
Ryan TrevittWigan AthleticOut[1]
Luke HarrisWigan AthleticOut[1]
Dara CostelloeWigan AthleticOut[1]
Peter KiosoOxford UnitedSuspended[1]
Gatlin O'DonkorOxford UnitedSuspended[1]
Aidomo EmakhuOxford UnitedOut[1]
Frankie KentOxford UnitedOut[1]
Jamie McDonnellOxford UnitedOut[1]
Jin-Woo JeonOxford UnitedOut[1]
Ruben RooskenOxford UnitedOut[1]

Key facts

  • Oxford sit eighth in League One with 15 points from 8 games and are outside the playoffs with games in hand.[1]
  • Oxford are unbeaten in five matches and drew 1-1 at Mansfield Town in their most recent league game.[1]
  • Oxford have not lost at home in the league this season, with one win and two draws.[1]
  • Wigan are bottom of League One with 7 points from 9 games and have won none of their four away league matches.[1]
  • Wigan beat Reading 1-0 in their last outing, ending a four-match winless league run.[1]
  • Wigan are seeking consecutive league wins for the first time since April.[1]
  • Wigan have won only two of nine league games this season, with five defeats.[1]

Sources

  1. sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Oxford United vs Wigan Athletic - prediction, team news ...
  2. bbc.co.uk – Group makes formal complaint over stadium plans (2026-10-15)
  3. bbc.co.uk – Wigan appoint Gilks as goalkeeper coach (2026-10-15)

Off the pitch

  • A campaign group has filed a formal complaint over the woodland status of the site for Oxford's planned new stadium, with a judicial review appeal ongoing.[4]
  • Wigan appointed Matt Gilks as goalkeeper coach after the sudden death of Kevin Miller last month.[5]

Match context

Stadium
The Kassam Stadium, Oxford, Oxfordshire
12,500 seats · grass
Travel for Wigan Athletic
219 km
Rest days
Oxford United 4Wigan Athletic 3
Matches in the last 14 days: Oxford United 2 · Wigan Athletic 2
Weather at kick-off
11°C · wind 6 km/h
Dry
Coaches
A. Ramsey
Oxford United, since Oct 2026
G. Caldwell
Wigan Athletic, since Aug 2026
Goals in this league
League One average: 2.84 per match

Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)

This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →

18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling

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