Burton Albion vs Bradford City prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Bradford to win: 55%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 50% · bookies 50% · ✗ 0 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay at the bookmakers' levels, with no shift applied in either direction. The Sceptic's view was not followed: its suggested 8-point move towards Burton rested heavily on head-to-head history, which we weighted lightly against Bradford's current league position and form.
What our AI analysts say
2 of 3 think Bradford City's chances are better than the bookmakers say. The Sceptic thinks Burton Albion are underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsBradford's full-strength XI edges a depleted Burton backline
Burton are without Finn Delap and reshuffle: Evans drops into the back three, Krubally starts in midfield and Arubi comes in up front. Araujo made his first full game since March. Bradford name a full-strength side with Swan promoted after his impact off the bench.
Bradford: clearly underrated
Fewer goalsMed✗ Wrong The Dressing Room
mood and pressureBradford's momentum and top spot outweigh Burton's home edge.
Burton are winless in three, threw away a lead at 96 minutes at Peterborough, and manager Gary Bowyer is under pressure after defensive errors. Burton did win the last three head-to-head meetings, including 2-1 at home.
Bradford: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket may overrate Bradford - Burton have won the last three meetings
Bradford sit top with 20 points from 10, but Burton lead the recent head-to-head 3-1-1 and won both meetings last season by 2-1. The model sees 38% away vs the market's 48%, and expected goals are low at 0.96-1.14 per side.
Burton: strongly underrated
Fewer goalsHigh✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
League leaders Bradford City visit Burton Albion at the Pirelli Stadium. Burton have, however, won the last three meetings between the sides.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Burton Albion win or draw
- 45%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Bradford City win or draw
- 81%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 75%
- 3+ goals
- 50%
- 4+ goals
- 28%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 0.9 goals from Burton Albion and 1.7 from Bradford City. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (11%), 0–2 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–0 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 19% | 26% | 55% | 50% |
| Goals model | 30% | 32% | 38% | 35% |
| AI analysts | 27% | 30% | 43% | 37% |
| Our forecast | 19% | 26% | 55% | 50% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because Bradford's league position and form are clear, but Burton's strong recent head-to-head record and home resilience before the Huddersfield loss temper the away lean.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
Frozen at kick-off. Version 2 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Burton Albion: last 6
DLDLWD · 5 scored, 7 conceded
| 17 Oct | at Peterborough | 2–2 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Doncaster | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Oct | at Grimsby EFL Trophy | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Oct | vs Huddersfield | 1–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | at Plymouth | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | vs Nottingham Forest U21 EFL Trophy | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: LDDDW
Bradford City: last 6
WDWDWW · 10 scored, 2 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Stevenage | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Leyton Orient | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Oct | at Rotherham EFL Trophy | 4–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | at Reading | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Sep | vs Newcastle United U21 EFL Trophy | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | at Luton | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WDWWW
Season stats
| Burton Albion | Bradford City | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.45 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.64 | Goals conceded per game | 0.50 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.20 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 0.80 |
| 73% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 10% |
| 73% | Both teams scored | 20% |
| 9% | Clean sheets | 70% |
| 18% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 1.64 | Yellow cards per game | 2.10 |
League matches only, 11 and 10 games.
When goals come
| Minutes | Burton Albion | Bradford City |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 min | ||
| 16–30 min | ||
| 31–45 min | ||
| 46–60 min | ||
| 61–75 min | ||
| 76–90 min |
League One table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield | 12 | +13 | 25 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Stockport County | 12 | +12 | 23 | DWWWW |
| 3 | Bradford City | 12 | +5 | 22 | DDWDD |
| 4 | Plymouth | 13 | +2 | 22 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Reading | 12 | +12 | 21 | WWLWD |
| 6 | Cambridge United | 12 | +3 | 20 | LDWWD |
| … | |||||
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 11 | +8 | 18 | LLWDD |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 11 | +4 | 18 | WWDWD |
| 10 | Luton | 11 | +2 | 17 | WWLWL |
| 11 | Burton Albion | 13 | -1 | 17 | WDDLL |
| 12 | Stevenage | 11 | +4 | 15 | LWLWL |
| 13 | Leicester | 11 | +0 | 15 | LWWLD |
| 14 | Wycombe | 12 | -4 | 15 | DDWLD |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Burton Albion won 3, Bradford City 2, 1 draw; 2.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2026 | Burton Albion | 2–1 | Bradford City | League One |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Bradford City | 1–2 | Burton Albion | League One |
| 18 Oct 2022 | Burton Albion | 4–0 | Bradford City | EFL Trophy |
| 26 Jan 2019 | Burton Albion | 1–1 | Bradford City | League One |
| 21 Aug 2018 | Bradford City | 1–0 | Burton Albion | League One |
| 8 Mar 2016 | Bradford City | 2–0 | Burton Albion | League One |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 34C. Addai
Defenders
- 6T. Sibbick
- 12G. Evans
- 16C. Tilt
Midfielders
- 17R. Borges Rodrigues
- 41Sulyman Krubally
- 4K. Chauke
- 24Harvey Araujo
- 18Caylon Vickers
- 8C. Webster
Forward
- 9G. Arubi
Substitutes (7)
- 14W. Collar
- 19M. Dennis
- 32J. Kean
- 10Mark O’Mahony
- 20J. Sraha
- 23Emeka Adeile
- 29Kain Adom
Goalkeeper
- 21J. McCracken
Defenders
- 28M. Pennington
- 15A. Baldwin
- 16George Christopher John Pratt
Midfielders
- 27C. O'Keeffe
- 10A. Sarcevic
- 6C. Connolly
- 3I. Touray
- 24W. Swan
- 23B. Pointon
Forward
- 9J. Beesley
Substitutes (7)
- 25N. Powell
- 8A. Phillips
- 32G. Lapslie
- 19K. Jackson
- 11S. Humphrys
- 5M. Gillesphey
- 1C. Dawson
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
| Player | Team | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Delap | Burton Albion | Out | [3] |
| Harvey Araujo | Burton Albion | Returning |
Key facts
- Burton Albion are 10th in League One with 13 points from 11 games, and are winless in their last three league matches, including a 2-2 draw at Peterborough after conceding a late equaliser.[3]
- Substitutes Swan and Powell made an impact for Bradford against Stevenage and could be promoted to the starting XI.[3]
Sources
- leaguespy.com – Burton Albion vs Bradford City Preview: Injuries and Suspension ...
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Burton Albion vs Bradford City - prediction, team news ...
Match context
- Stadium
- Pirelli Stadium, Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire
- 6,912 seats · grass
- Rest days
- Burton Albion 3Bradford City 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Burton Albion 2 · Bradford City 2
- Coaches
- G. Bowyer
- Burton Albion, since Dec 2024
- M. Duff
- Bradford City, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- League One average: 2.84 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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