Villarreal vs Espanyol prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Villarreal to win: 68%, about 2 in 3
Goals call3+ goals 64% · bookies 64%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Villarreal are clear favourites at 68%, with Espanyol on 14% and the draw on 18%. Villarreal are 10th and Espanyol 18th in LaLiga. In their last five league games, Villarreal won three and Espanyol none.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Villarreal win or draw
- 86%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 82%
- Espanyol win or draw
- 32%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 84%
- 3+ goals
- 64%
- 4+ goals
- 42%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 56%
- No
- 44%
We expect about 2.3 goals from Villarreal and 1.0 from Espanyol. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%), 1–1 (8%), 3–0 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68% | 18% | 14% | Stats preview | #1972 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Villarreal: last 6
WLDWLW · 11 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Valencia | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Oct | at Liverpool UEFA Champions League | 3–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Elche | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Napoli UEFA Champions League | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Real Madrid | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Levante | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: DWWLL
Espanyol: last 6
LLDLLW · 6 scored, 9 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Racing Santander | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Atletico Madrid | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Malaga | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Elche | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Rayo Vallecano | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Osasuna | 2–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LDLWL
Season stats
| Villarreal | Espanyol | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.20 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded per game | 1.40 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.20 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 70% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 70% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 10% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | +3 | 12 | DLLDL |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | +3 | 12 | WLDDD |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | +1 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | +0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | -10 | 11 | LWLDL |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | -11 | 11 | WLDLL |
| … | |||||
| 15 | Elche | 10 | -3 | 10 | WDDWL |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | -8 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | -10 | 9 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | -2 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | -10 | 6 | LDDLW |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | -12 | 5 | DLDLL |
Match context
- Travel for Espanyol
- 843 km
- Rest days
- Villarreal 6Espanyol 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Villarreal 3 · Espanyol 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 19°C · wind 4 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- Iñigo Pérez
- Villarreal, since Oct 2026
- Manolo González
- Espanyol, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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