Elche vs Valencia prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Elche 39%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 51% · bookies 51%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
In short
Elche are slight favourites at 39%, with Valencia on 33% and the draw on 28%. Elche are 15th and Valencia 19th in LaLiga. In their last five league games, Elche won two and Valencia one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Elche win or draw
- 67%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Valencia win or draw
- 61%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 74%
- 3+ goals
- 49%
- 4+ goals
- 27%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 53%
- No
- 47%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Elche and 1.2 from Valencia. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 0–1 (9%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% | 23% | 20% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1996 | |
| 2 | 39% | 28% | 33% | Prices moved | #2221 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Elche: last 6
WDDWLD · 9 scored, 5 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Rayo Vallecano | 3–0 | W |
| 17 Oct | at Villarreal | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Celta Vigo | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Sep | at Espanyol | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Sep | vs Real Madrid | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Athletic Club | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 at home: DLLL
Valencia: last 6
LDDLWL · 6 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Villarreal | 1–2 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Athletic Club | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Racing Santander | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Real Sociedad | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Alaves | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Sevilla | 0–1 | L |
Last 4 away: DWLL
Season stats
| Elche | Valencia | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | Goals scored per game | 0.70 |
| 1.70 | Goals conceded per game | 1.70 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 0.50 |
| 1.67 | Scored per game away | 1.00 |
| 60% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| 60% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | -10 | 11 | LWLDL |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | -11 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 14 | Levante | 10 | -3 | 10 | LWDDL |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | -3 | 10 | WDDWL |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | -8 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | -10 | 9 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | -2 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | -10 | 6 | LDDLW |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | -12 | 5 | DLDLL |
Match context
- Travel for Valencia
- 137 km
- Rest days
- Elche 8Valencia 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Elche 1 · Valencia 1
- Weather at kick-off
- 18°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- M. Anselmi
- Elche, since Oct 2026
- J. Aguirre
- Valencia, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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