Getafe vs Sevilla prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Wide open: no clear favourite (Sevilla 38%)
Goals call2 goals or fewer 67% · bookies 67%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Sevilla are slight favourites at 38%, with Getafe on 30% and the draw on 32%. Getafe are 17th and Sevilla 6th in LaLiga. In their last five league games, Getafe won one and Sevilla two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Getafe win or draw
- 62%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 68%
- Sevilla win or draw
- 70%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 60%
- 3+ goals
- 33%
- 4+ goals
- 14%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 40%
- No
- 60%
We expect about 0.9 goals from Getafe and 1.1 from Sevilla. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 0–1 (14%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–2 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% | 26% | 45% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1819 | |
| 2 | 30% | 32% | 38% | Prices moved | #2192 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Getafe: last 6
LLDDLW · 5 scored, 14 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Athletic Club | 0–4 | L |
| 22 Oct | vs FC Lugano UEFA Europa Conference League | 2–5 | L |
| 19 Oct | vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Oct | at Universitatea Craiova UEFA Europa Conference League | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Barcelona | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Malaga | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: LDWDD
Sevilla: last 6
WLDLWW · 9 scored, 10 conceded
| 26 Oct | vs Osasuna | 2–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Real Madrid | 1–4 | L |
| 12 Oct | at Levante | 3–3 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Barcelona | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | at Deportivo La Coruna | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | vs Valencia | 1–0 | W |
Last 5 away: LDWDW
Season stats
| Getafe | Sevilla | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | Goals scored per game | 1.60 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded per game | 1.60 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.40 |
| 0.00 | Scored per game away | 1.80 |
| 30% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 60% |
| 30% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 0% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | +15 | 24 | WWWLW |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | +2 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | +1 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | +0 | 17 | WLDLW |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | +3 | 12 | DLLDL |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | +3 | 12 | WLDDD |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| … | |||||
| 14 | Levante | 10 | -3 | 10 | LWDDL |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | -3 | 10 | WDDWL |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | -8 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | -10 | 9 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | -2 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | -10 | 6 | LDDLW |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | -12 | 5 | DLDLL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Getafe 7Sevilla 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Getafe 3 · Sevilla 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 17°C · wind 4 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- Pepe Bordalás
- Getafe, since Oct 2026
- Luis García
- Sevilla, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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