Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Athletic Club to win: 47%, about 1 in 2
Goals call3+ goals 56% · bookies 56%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
In short
Athletic Club are favourites at 47%, with Real Sociedad on 28% and the draw on 25%. Athletic Club are 8th and Real Sociedad 5th in LaLiga. In their last five league games, Athletic Club won one and Real Sociedad four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Athletic Club win or draw
- 72%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Real Sociedad win or draw
- 53%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 79%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 58%
- No
- 42%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Athletic Club and 1.2 from Real Sociedad. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–2 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% | 22% | 26% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1997 | |
| 2 | 47% | 26% | 28% | Prices moved | #2222 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Athletic Club: last 6
WLDDDW · 9 scored, 4 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Getafe | 4–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | at Levante | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Valencia | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Alaves | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Elche | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Atletico Madrid | 3–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDDWL
Real Sociedad: last 6
WWWDWW · 20 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Levante | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Oct | at Lillestrom UEFA Europa League | 6–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Malaga | 5–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Union St. Gilloise UEFA Europa League | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Deportivo La Coruna | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Valencia | 3–2 | W |
Last 5 away: WWDWW
Season stats
| Athletic Club | Real Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 1.90 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded per game | 1.80 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game at home | 1.40 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 2.40 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 56% | Clean sheets | 10% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 30% |
League matches only, 9 and 10 games.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | +12 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | +15 | 24 | WWWLW |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | +2 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | +1 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | +0 | 17 | WLDLW |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | +3 | 12 | DLLDL |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | +3 | 12 | WLDDD |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | +1 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | +0 | 11 | LDLDL |
Match context
- Travel for Real Sociedad
- 77 km
- Rest days
- Athletic Club 7Real Sociedad 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Athletic Club 2 · Real Sociedad 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 12°C · wind 3 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- E. Terzić
- Athletic Club, since Oct 2026
- P. Matarazzo
- Real Sociedad, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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