Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Rayo Vallecano to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 56% · bookies 56%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The analysis suggests a competitive fixture where Celta's defensive stability is a major factor against Rayo's high-scoring but leaky attack. While Rayo has the home advantage, Celta's better form and defensive record make the away win a strong possibility.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
Both analysts think Celta Vigo's chances are better than the bookmakers say. Neither makes Celta Vigo favourites.
The Dressing Room
the table and pressureCelta's superior league position and recent form give them the edge.
Celta sits 9th with 12 points from 10 games, while Rayo is 16th with 9 points from 9 games. Rayo has rested 7 days, compared to Celta's 6 days.
Celta Vigo: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe market slightly favours Rayo, but Celta's defensive record suggests a tighter match.
The market gives Rayo a 41% chance of winning, but Celta's season record shows they concede only 0.70 goals per game. Rayo's season record shows they concede 2.22 goals per game.
Celta Vigo: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
Rayo Vallecano are slight favourites at 41%, with Celta Vigo on 31% and the draw on 28%. Rayo Vallecano are 16th and Celta Vigo 9th in LaLiga. In their last five league games, Rayo Vallecano won one and Celta Vigo two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Rayo Vallecano win or draw
- 69%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Celta Vigo win or draw
- 59%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 50%
- No
- 50%
We expect about 1.3 goals from Rayo Vallecano and 1.1 from Celta Vigo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%), 0–0 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% | 27% | 37% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1961 | |
| 2 | 41% | 28% | 31% | Prices moved | #2152 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Rayo Vallecano: last 6
LDDWLW · 8 scored, 12 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Elche | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Oct | at Getafe | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Osasuna | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at Real Madrid | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Racing Santander | 3–2 | W |
Last 4 at home: LWWD
Celta Vigo: last 6
DWWLDW · 10 scored, 4 conceded
| 25 Oct | vs Real Betis | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Oct | at Celtic UEFA Europa League | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Alaves | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Juventus UEFA Europa League | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | at Elche | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Racing Santander | 5–0 | W |
Last 5 away: WDLDD
Season stats
| Rayo Vallecano | Celta Vigo | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 2.22 | Goals conceded per game | 0.70 |
| 1.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game away | 0.25 |
| 67% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 30% |
| 89% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 50% |
League matches only, 9 and 10 games.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | +0 | 17 | WLDLW |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | +3 | 12 | DLLDL |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | +3 | 12 | WLDDD |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | +1 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | +0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | -10 | 11 | LWLDL |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | -11 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 14 | Levante | 10 | -3 | 10 | LWDDL |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | -3 | 10 | WDDWL |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | -8 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | -10 | 9 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | -2 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | -10 | 6 | LDDLW |
Match context
- Travel for Celta Vigo
- 465 km
- Rest days
- Rayo Vallecano 7Celta Vigo 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Rayo Vallecano 2 · Celta Vigo 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 20°C · wind 3 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- Beñat San José
- Rayo Vallecano, since Oct 2026
- Claudio Giráldez
- Celta Vigo, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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