Racing Santander vs Real Madrid prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Real Madrid to win: 80%, about 4 in 5
Goals call4 goals or fewer 59% · bookies 59%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Real Madrid are clear favourites at 80%, with Racing Santander on 9% and the draw on 11%. Racing Santander are 13th and Real Madrid 3rd in LaLiga. In their last five league games, Racing Santander won one and Real Madrid four.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Racing Santander win or draw
- 20%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 88%
- Real Madrid win or draw
- 91%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 92%
- 3+ goals
- 79%
- 4+ goals
- 60%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.0 goals from Racing Santander and 3.2 from Real Madrid. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–3 (8%). Even the likeliest exact score happens less than 1 time in 10. Next: 0–3 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 0–2 (8%), 1–4 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18% | 17% | 65% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #2040 | |
| 2 | 9% | 12% | 80% | Prices moved | #2229 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Racing Santander: last 6
WLDLLW · 8 scored, 18 conceded
| 24 Oct | vs Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Osasuna | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Valencia | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Celta Vigo | 0–5 | L |
| 16 Sep | at Barcelona | 2–7 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Alaves | 2–1 | W |
Last 5 at home: WDWWD
Real Madrid: last 6
WWWWWL · 16 scored, 8 conceded
| 25 Oct | at Barcelona | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Oct | vs RB Leipzig UEFA Champions League | 4–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Sevilla | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | at AS Roma UEFA Champions League | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Villarreal | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Atletico Madrid | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 away: WWLWL
Season stats
| Racing Santander | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | Goals scored per game | 2.50 |
| 2.60 | Goals conceded per game | 1.00 |
| 2.20 | Scored per game at home | 3.40 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 1.60 |
| 80% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 80% |
| 70% | Both teams scored | 70% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 10% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 10 | +29 | 27 | LWWWW |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | +12 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | +15 | 24 | WWWLW |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | +2 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | +1 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | +0 | 17 | WLDLW |
| … | |||||
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | +1 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | +0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | -10 | 11 | LWLDL |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | -11 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 14 | Levante | 10 | -3 | 10 | LWDDL |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | -3 | 10 | WDDWL |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | -8 | 9 | LDDWL |
Match context
- Travel for Real Madrid
- 339 km
- Rest days
- Racing Santander 8Real Madrid 6
- Matches in the last 14 days: Racing Santander 1 · Real Madrid 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 18°C · wind 9 km/h
- Dry
- Coaches
- José Alberto López
- Racing Santander, since Oct 2026
- José Mourinho
- Real Madrid, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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