Deportivo vs Osasuna prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
Deportivo to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 57% · bookies 57%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
Key factors
In short
Deportivo are favourites at 45%, with Osasuna on 26% and the draw on 29%. Deportivo are 11th and Osasuna 12th in LaLiga. In their last five league games, Deportivo won none and Osasuna one.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Deportivo win or draw
- 74%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 71%
- Osasuna win or draw
- 55%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 69%
- 3+ goals
- 42%
- 4+ goals
- 22%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 47%
- No
- 53%
We expect about 1.4 goals from Deportivo and 1.0 from Osasuna. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (13%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (9%), 0–1 (9%), 2–0 (9%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. No team news is read for this match, so the numbers are not adjusted. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% | 21% | 19% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1820 | |
| 2 | 45% | 29% | 26% | Prices moved | #2193 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Deportivo: last 6
LDLDLD · 5 scored, 8 conceded
| 24 Oct | at Atletico Madrid | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Oct | vs Levante | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Real Sociedad | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Real Betis | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Sep | vs Sevilla | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Getafe | 1–1 | D |
Last 5 at home: DDLWD
Osasuna: last 6
LWLDLL · 5 scored, 14 conceded
| 26 Oct | at Sevilla | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Racing Santander | 2–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | at Real Betis | 2–5 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Sep | at Atletico Madrid | 0–4 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Espanyol | 0–2 | L |
Last 5 away: LLLLW
Season stats
| Deportivo | Osasuna | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.30 | Goals scored per game | 1.00 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 1.20 | Scored per game at home | 0.80 |
| 1.40 | Scored per game away | 1.20 |
| 30% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 40% |
| 80% | Both teams scored | 40% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 40% |
League matches only, 10 games each.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | +3 | 12 | WLDDD |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | +1 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 11 | Deportivo | 10 | +0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | -10 | 11 | LWLDL |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | -11 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 14 | Levante | 10 | -3 | 10 | LWDDL |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | -3 | 10 | WDDWL |
Match context
- Rest days
- Deportivo 9Osasuna 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Deportivo 1 · Osasuna 1
- Coaches
- Antonio Hidalgo
- Deportivo, since Oct 2026
- Arrasate
- Osasuna, since Oct 2026
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.01 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
