Valencia vs Villarreal prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Villarreal to win: 45%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 54% · bookies 56% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only a single point from away to draw because Villarreal's likely rotation after Anfield meets a deep-blocking home side. The Coach's view that Villarreal are overrated by three points was not followed, since The Dressing Room and The Sceptic both identify smaller two-point shifts and the market already reflects most of the quality gap.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Valencia's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Valencia favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsRotation-hit Villarreal edge a depleted Valencia in a tight derby
Valencia are without Sadiq, Diego López, Canós and 2 more, with Danjuma (reported out, not confirmed by the club), Raba (reported out, not confirmed by the club) and Javi Guerra (reported out, not confirmed by the club) — all ex-Villarreal — set to start. Villarreal likely rotate after the Anfield tie: Romero is out, Saliba (reported out, not confirmed by the club) doubtful, with Freeman (reported out, not confirmed by the club), Akhomach (reported out, not confirmed by the club), Moreno (reported out, not confirmed by the club) or Foyth (reported out, not confirmed by the club) in line. Tactically, Valencia plan to sit deep and counter while Villarreal dictate.
Villarreal: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow The Dressing Room
mood and pressureVillarreal's edge is real but rotation after Anfield keeps this tight.
Valencia sit 19th with 6 points and are still winless at home, while Aguirre waits for his first win. Villarreal are 12th with just two league wins and face this derby days after a Champions League trip to Anfield, with rotation expected. It is the last-ever Mestalla derby, adding emotional weight for the home crowd.
Valencia: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✗ Wrong The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongRotated Villarreal face a deep Valencia block - the draw looks slightly underpriced.
Market has Villarreal 46.2%, Valencia 27.7%, draw 26.1%. The market-blind model lands at 43/29/29 - nearly identical on the away side. H2H favours Villarreal (2W 1D in last three), but Valencia's deep block plus Villarreal's midweek European game points to a tighter, lower-event contest.
Villarreal: slightly overrated
Fewer goalsLow AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
A derby at the old Mestalla with both sides short of form: Valencia sit 19th and are still winless at home, while 12th-placed Villarreal arrive after a midweek Champions League trip to Liverpool. Villarreal are expected to rotate, and Valencia are missing five players. Our numbers stay close to the market, with a slight shift from away to draw.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Valencia win or draw
- 55%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 73%
- Villarreal win or draw
- 72%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 54%
- 4+ goals
- 32%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 57%
- No
- 43%
We expect about 1.2 goals from Valencia and 1.6 from Villarreal. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 0–1 (9%), 1–2 (9%), 0–2 (8%), 1–0 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 28% | 26% | 46% | 56% |
| Goals model | 29% | 29% | 43% | 45% |
| AI analysts | 30% | 29% | 41% | 45% |
| Our forecast | 28% | 27% | 45% | 54% |
Verdict: The market already prices in most of the gap in quality and availability, so our numbers move only slightly: a touch off Villarreal for rotation and fatigue, a touch onto the draw for Valencia's deep-block derby setup.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% | 26% | 45% | Stats preview | #729 | |
| 2 | 28% | 27% | 45% | Full analysis | #958 | |
| 3 | 28% | 27% | 45% | Updated news and prices | #1142 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Valencia: last 6
DDLWLL · 5 scored, 11 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Athletic Club | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Racing Santander | 2–2 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Real Sociedad | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Alaves | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Sep | at Sevilla | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Barcelona | 0–5 | L |
Last 5 at home: DLLLD
Villarreal: last 6
LDWLWW · 12 scored, 8 conceded
| 20 Oct | at Liverpool UEFA Champions League | 3–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs Elche | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Oct | vs Napoli UEFA Champions League | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Real Madrid | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Levante | 3–1 | W |
| 17 Sep | at Malaga | 3–1 | W |
Last 5 away: LLWLL
Season stats
| Valencia | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.67 | Goals scored per game | 1.44 |
| 1.67 | Goals conceded per game | 1.44 |
| 0.40 | Scored per game at home | 1.50 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game away | 1.40 |
| 44% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 33% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 11% |
| 56% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | +3 | 12 | DLLDL |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | +3 | 12 | WLDDD |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | +1 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | +0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Osasuna | 9 | -8 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | -11 | 11 | WLDLL |
| … | |||||
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | -8 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | -10 | 9 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | -2 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | -10 | 6 | LDDLW |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | -12 | 5 | DLDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Valencia won 1, Villarreal 3, 2 draws; 2.3 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2026 | Villarreal | 2–1 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Valencia | 0–2 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Villarreal | 1–1 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Valencia | 1–1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 17 Mar 2024 | Villarreal | 1–0 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2 Jan 2024 | Valencia | 3–1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1S. Dimitrievski
Defenders
- 24Pablo Maffeo
- 5César Tárrega
- 12J. de Haas
- 14José Gayà
Midfielders
- 27David Otorbi
- 2G. Rodríguez
- 18Pepelu
- 11Luis Rioja
Forwards
- 8Javi Guerra
- 7A. Danjuma
Substitutes (12)
- 21Jesús Vázquez
- 25K. van Oevelen
- 23F. Ugrinic
- 39R. Sato
- 19Dani Raba
- 33Aaron Mayol
- 22Arnau Martínez
- 10H. Elliott
- 9Hugo Duro
- 15A. Dieng
- 4M. Diakhaby
- 37Aimar Blázquez
Goalkeeper
- 25P. Gulácsi
Defenders
- 15S. Mouriño
- 8J. Foyth
- 12Renato Veiga
- 3A. Freeman
Midfielders
- 11Ilias Akhomach
- 16C. Macia
- 18P. Gueye
- 17T. Buchanan
Forwards
- 7Gerard Moreno
- 22Ayoze Pérez
Substitutes (12)
- 23Sergi Cardona
- 2Logan Costa
- 14Santi Comesaña
- 5A. Diatta
- 27N. El Jmili
- 13Rubén Gómez
- 1Luíz Júnior
- 9G. Mikautadze
- 10Alberto Moleiro
- 6Pau Navarro
- 21T. Oluwaseyi
- 28Joselillo Gaitán
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutS. CanosKnee
- OutJ. CopeteKnee
- OutD. FoulquierKnee
Show 2 more
- OutD. LopezKnee
- OutU. SadiqMuscle
- OutN. PepeEye injury
- OutC. RomeroInjury
- OutN. SalibaInjury
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Aguirre is still looking for his first win as Valencia coach, with the club sitting 19th on six points.[1]
- Valencia have not won a home league match this season.[2]
- Carlos Romero is ruled out for Villarreal and Nathan Saliba (reported out, not confirmed by the club) is doubtful after discomfort.[2]
- Three former Villarreal players, Danjuma, Raba and Javi Guerra, are in line to start for Valencia and are highly motivated.[2]
- Villarreal have won only two of their nine league games this season.[3]
- Valencia have scored six and conceded fifteen goals in nine league games.[3]
Sources
- onefootball.com – Valencia v Villarreal: derby at Mestalla as Aguirre chases first win amid ownership move - OneFootball (2026-10-24)
- onefootball.com – Valencia v Villarreal: last Mestalla derby carries weight for both - OneFootball (2026-10-24)
- bbc.co.uk – Valencia vs Villarreal: Spanish La Liga stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-24)
Match context
- Rest days
- Valencia 6Villarreal 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Valencia 2 · Villarreal 4
- Referee
- Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.07 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
