Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Atletico Madrid to win: 76%, about 3 in 4
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', with only a small 3-point shift taking probability from the away side to the draw. The Sceptic's view on the draw was not followed at full strength because Atletico's three-match winning run and unbeaten home record make a stalemate unlikely.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think a draw is underrated.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsAtletico Madrid's strong form and home advantage should secure a victory.
Atletico is missing Johnny Cardoso due to injury. Deportivo is missing Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureAtletico Madrid's strong form and league position give them a clear advantage.
Deportivo is 9th and has been winless in the last three games. The match is played at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongAtletico Madrid's strong form and league position make them the clear favorites to secure the victory.
The H2H record shows Atletico has won both previous league encounters.
AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Atletico Madrid, second with 22 points and unbeaten at home this season, host ninth-placed Deportivo, who are winless in three. Both sides carry several absences.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Atletico Madrid win or draw
- 92%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 84%
- Deportivo win or draw
- 24%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 78%
- 3+ goals
- 55%
- 4+ goals
- 33%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 40%
- No
- 60%
We expect about 2.3 goals from Atletico Madrid and 0.6 from Deportivo. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–0 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 7. Next: 1–0 (13%), 3–0 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 76% | 15% | 9% | 62% |
| AI analysts | 67% | 21% | 12% | 64% |
| Our forecast | 76% | 16% | 8% | – |
Verdict: Our numbers stay very close to the market: Atletico's form, home record and league position justify a strong home favourite, and we only lift the draw marginally on The Sceptic's argument.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 77% | 15% | 8% | Stats preview | #785 | |
| 2 | 76% | 16% | 8% | Full analysis | #1047 | |
| 3 | 76% | 16% | 8% | Updated news and prices | #1183 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Atletico Madrid: last 6
DWWWWW · 12 scored, 3 conceded
| 20 Oct | at VfB Stuttgart UEFA Champions League | 1–1 | D |
| 17 Oct | at Espanyol | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Manchester United UEFA Champions League | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | at Alaves | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Real Madrid | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Osasuna | 4–0 | W |
Last 5 at home: WWWDW
Deportivo: last 6
DLDLDW · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 16 Oct | vs Levante | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | at Real Sociedad | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Real Betis | 1–1 | D |
| 16 Sep | vs Sevilla | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Getafe | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | at Villarreal | 3–2 | W |
Last 4 away: LDWD
Season stats
| Atletico Madrid | Deportivo | |
|---|---|---|
| 2.11 | Goals scored per game | 1.44 |
| 0.89 | Goals conceded per game | 1.33 |
| 2.50 | Scored per game at home | 1.20 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game away | 1.75 |
| 78% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 44% | Both teams scored | 89% |
| 44% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 11% | Failed to score | 11% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | +30 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | +12 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | +14 | 21 | WWLWW |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | +2 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| … | |||||
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | +3 | 12 | WLDDD |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | +1 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 11 | Deportivo | 10 | +0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Osasuna | 9 | -8 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | -11 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 14 | Levante | 9 | -2 | 10 | WDDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Atletico Madrid won 5, Deportivo 0, 1 draw; 1.5 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | Deportivo | 0–1 | Atletico Madrid | Copa del Rey |
| 1 Apr 2018 | Atletico Madrid | 1–0 | Deportivo | La Liga |
| 4 Nov 2017 | Deportivo | 0–1 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2 Mar 2017 | Deportivo | 1–1 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 25 Sep 2016 | Atletico Madrid | 1–0 | Deportivo | La Liga |
| 12 Mar 2016 | Atletico Madrid | 3–0 | Deportivo | La Liga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 13J. Oblak
Defenders
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 18Marc Pubill
- 17D. Hancko
- 22Álex Grimaldo
Midfielders
- 8Pablo Barrios
- 23M. Hjulmand
- 10Álex Baena
Forwards
- 7Lee Kang-In
- 19J. Álvarez
- 11A. Lookman
Substitutes (12)
- 4Rodrigo Mendoza
- 30Dani MartÃnez
- 1J. Musso
- 16Arnau Ortiz
- 20G. Simeone
- 9A. Sørloth
- 3O. Vargas
- 24Robin Le Normand
- 25Salvador Esquivel
- 27J. Dominguez
- 15J. David
- 46J. Castillo
Goalkeeper
- 13Leo Román
Defenders
- 11David Mella
- 2Adrià Alti
- 20J. Giménez
- 15Miguel Loureiro
- 12G. Quagliata
Midfielders
- 21Mario Soriano
- 16L. Amatucci
- 8Diego Villares
Forwards
- 32B. Nsongo
- 10Peke
Substitutes (12)
- 3Arnau Comas
- 19Luismi Cruz
- 17Angeliño
- 25Álvaro Fernández
- 18Jonathan Asp Jensen
- 35ruben lopez
- 23Ximo Navarro
- 4L. Noubi
- 14Riki Rodríguez
- 33Kevin Sánchez
- 24Adama Traoré
- 5Dani Barcia
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutJ. CardosoThigh
- OutKokeMuscle
- OutC. RomeroMuscle
- OutP. AubameyangKnee
- OutN. CarrilloMuscle
- OutM. CasadoCollarbone injury
Show 2 more
- OutZ. EddahchouriWrist
- OutB. EdeHamstring
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Atletico Madrid are second in LaLiga with 22 points from 9 games and are unbeaten at home this season with three wins and one draw.[1]
- Deportivo sit ninth with 11 points from 9 games and are winless in their last three, drawing twice and losing once.[1][2]
- The two clubs last met in the league in 2017-18, when Atletico won both matches 1-0.[2]
- The reverse fixture in January 2026, in the Copa del Rey, ended 0-1 to Atletico at Deportivo.[2]
Sources
- worldsoccertalk.com – Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo: Projected lineups for the 2026-27 LaLiga match - World Soccer Talk (2026-10-24)
- bbc.co.uk – Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruña: Spanish La Liga stats & head-to-head - BBC (2026-10-24)
Match context
- Rest days
- Atletico Madrid 4Deportivo 8
- Matches in the last 14 days: Atletico Madrid 3 · Deportivo 2
- Referee
- Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.06 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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