Racing Santander vs Espanyol prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Racing Santander to win: 41%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 59% · bookies 59% · ✓ 3 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers' because Racing's unbeaten four-match home run and Zabiri's form balance their league-worst defence against Espanyol's better defensive record. The Sceptic's 3-point shift toward Espanyol was only partly followed, as Racing's home record and the squad-list doubts over Kike Garcia and Jofre Carreras limit how far we move away.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Espanyol's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Espanyol favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsLean towards Espanyol - a sturdier backline against Racing's league-worst defensive setup.
Racing's defensive leader Eriksson is doubtful (shoulder, late check) and their back line has conceded 25 in 9 games. Espanyol are stronger defensively (12 conceded) but Kike Garcia is a doubt and Jofre Carreras faces a late fitness test; the squad list contradicts some preview reports. Key duel: Fernandez/Zaragoza against Racing's fragile defence.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureHome fightback at El Sardinero in a tense relegation six-pointer.
Both sit on 8 points after 9 games in a direct relegation battle. Espanyol have one win in their last eight and are four matches without a win. Pressure is high on both benches.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongEspanyol's defensive edge looks underpriced against the league's leakiest defence.
The 42-29 all-time H2H favours Espanyol, though Racing lead 21-11 at El Sardinero.
Espanyol: slightly underrated
Low✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
A relegation six-pointer with both sides on 8 points from 9 games. Racing are unbeaten in four home matches but own the league's worst defence with 25 goals conceded.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Racing Santander win or draw
- 68%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 74%
- Espanyol win or draw
- 59%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 81%
- 3+ goals
- 58%
- 4+ goals
- 36%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Racing Santander and 1.4 from Espanyol. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (11%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 9. Next: 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (8%), 1–2 (8%), 0–1 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 42% | 26% | 32% | 59% |
| Goals model | 32% | 24% | 43% | 64% |
| AI analysts | 34% | 26% | 40% | 62% |
| Our forecast | 41% | 26% | 32% | 59% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market: Racing's home strength offsets their league-worst defence, and Espanyol's defensive edge is already largely reflected in the prices.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% | 26% | 34% | Stats preview | #714 | |
| 2 | 42% | 26% | 32% | Prices moved | #883 | |
| 3 | 41% | 26% | 32% | Full analysis | #946 | |
| 4 | 41% | 26% | 32% | Updated news and prices | #1052 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Racing Santander: last 6
LDLLWL · 8 scored, 20 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Osasuna | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Valencia | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | at Celta Vigo | 0–5 | L |
| 16 Sep | at Barcelona | 2–7 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Alaves | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | at Rayo Vallecano | 2–3 | L |
Last 4 at home: DWWD
Espanyol: last 6
LDLLWD · 6 scored, 8 conceded
| 17 Oct | vs Atletico Madrid | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | at Malaga | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Elche | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Sep | at Rayo Vallecano | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Osasuna | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Sevilla | 1–1 | D |
Last 4 away: DLWL
Season stats
| Racing Santander | Espanyol | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.44 | Goals scored per game | 1.22 |
| 2.78 | Goals conceded per game | 1.33 |
| 2.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.20 |
| 0.80 | Scored per game away | 1.25 |
| 78% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 56% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 11% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | +1 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | +0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Osasuna | 9 | -8 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | -11 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 14 | Levante | 9 | -2 | 10 | WDDLL |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | -3 | 10 | WDDWL |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | -8 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | -10 | 9 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | -2 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | -10 | 6 | LDDLW |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | -12 | 5 | DLDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Racing Santander won 2, Espanyol 3, 1 draw; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb 2024 | Racing Santander | 2–0 | Espanyol | Segunda División |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Espanyol | 2–0 | Racing Santander | Segunda División |
| 19 Mar 2012 | Espanyol | 3–1 | Racing Santander | La Liga |
| 22 Oct 2011 | Racing Santander | 0–1 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 3 Apr 2011 | Espanyol | 1–2 | Racing Santander | La Liga |
| 14 Nov 2010 | Racing Santander | 0–0 | Espanyol | La Liga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 13Julen Agirrezabala
Defenders
- 2Álvaro Mantilla
- 5Pablo Ramón
- 24J. Belocian
- 17Jorge Salinas
Midfielders
- 18M. Prati
- 23Iván Martín
- 11Andrés Martín
- 20Sergio Canales
- 10Iñigo Vicente
Forward
- 21M. Zabiri
Substitutes (12)
- 22Pedro Felipe
- 12Asier Villalibre
- 6Íñigo Sainz-Maza
- 8André Almeida
- 3Aarón Martín
- 19Iker Luque
- 9Juan Carlos Arana
- 15Pablo García
- 16Facundo González
- 14M. Gueye
- 7G. Guliashvili
- 31Laro Gómez
Goalkeeper
- 1Ángel Fortuño
Defenders
- 23O. El Hilali
- 16V. Drkušić
- 6L. Cabrera
- 3Q. Hartman
Midfielders
- 28Javier Hernandez
- 8Edu Expósito
- 10Pol Lozano
- 15Bryan Zaragoza
Forwards
- 9Roberto Fernández
- 22Álex Calatrava
Substitutes (12)
- 26Rafel Bauzà
- 13M. Dmitrović
- 24T. Dolan
- 18Marcos Fernández
- 4Urko González
- 2Gorosabel
- 21Roger Hinojo
- 11Pere Milla
- 14Unai Núñez
- 7Javi Puado
- 5C. Riedel
- 20Gabriel Moscardo
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutS. ErikssonShoulder
- OutK. GarciaHamstring
- OutJofreGroin
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Both sides sit on 8 points from 9 games, Racing 17th and Espanyol 16th, in a direct relegation battle.[1][2][3][4]
- Racing have the worst defence in LaLiga with 25 goals conceded in 9 matches, while Espanyol have conceded 12.[2]
- Racing are unbeaten in their last four home matches, but have lost all five away league games this season.[3][4]
- Espanyol are winless in four matches with only one win in their last eight.[3]
- Racing have scored in nine consecutive matches, and Zabiri has 7 goals in 9 league games.[3][4]
- Espanyol have scored in four straight away matches, with Roberto Fernandez on 6 goals in 9 games and Bryan Zaragoza expected to start.[3][4]
- Racing lost their last match 2-0 at Osasuna, while Espanyol fell 1-0 at home to Atletico Madrid.[1][3][4]
Sources
- goal.com – Racing Santander vs Espanyol: TV channel, live stream and kick-off ...
- estadiodeportivo.com – Espanyol: Alineaciones, horario y dónde ver hoy en TV el partido
- onefootball.com – PREVIEW | Racing Santander vs Espanyol: team news, lineups ...
- sportsmole.co.uk – Racing de Santander vs Espanyol - prediction, team news, lineups
Match context
- Rest days
- Racing Santander 6Espanyol 7
- Matches in the last 14 days: Racing Santander 2 · Espanyol 1
- Referee
- Jesus Gil Manzano
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.07 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
18+ · Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. If you bet, bet only what you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling
