Alavés vs Málaga prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Alavés to win: 58%, about 3 in 5
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the bookmakers', moving only one point from home to away after weighing Alavés' four defeats in five against Málaga's winless, depleted squad. The Sceptic's two-point downward shift on Alavés was only partly followed, because Málaga's absence list and off-field instability go beyond what a modest home price would normally account for.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsAlaves healthier and at home; Malaga's injury list guts their lineup.
Alavés line up 5-3-2 at Mendizorroza with Ángel Pérez back from suspension, only Garces and Mikel Rodríguez unavailable. Málaga are badly hit: Pablo Martínez, Joaquín Muñoz, Lobete and Murillo out, Ochoa and Juan Cruz doubtful, forcing an improvised back line and a striker-depleted attack.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressurePressure-ridden bottom side Malaga visit an Alaves team eager to recover at home.
Alaves sit 7th on 11 points but have lost 4 of their last 5. Malaga are bottom, winless after nine games with 4 draws and 5 defeats, and manager Funes is under real pressure with his position being tested. The club is under judicial financial control and operates on the lowest salary limit in the league.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongScoring environment averages 3.08 goals per match, yet the over is priced near 46%.
Alavés: slightly overrated
Low AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Seventh-placed Alavés host bottom side Málaga, the league's only winless team, at Mendizorroza. Alavés have lost four of their last five, but Málaga arrive with six players unavailable and are under pressure off the pitch. The market makes the home side clear favourites and we broadly agree.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Alavés win or draw
- 83%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 75%
- Málaga win or draw
- 42%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 68%
- 3+ goals
- 41%
- 4+ goals
- 21%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 42%
- No
- 58%
We expect about 1.6 goals from Alavés and 0.7 from Málaga. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%), 0–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 59% | 25% | 16% | 46% |
| AI analysts | 53% | 27% | 20% | 48% |
| Our forecast | 58% | 25% | 17% | – |
Verdict: Our probabilities stay close to the market because Málaga's crisis is well documented and already priced in, while Alavés' own poor run of form limits any upward revision of the home side.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 25% | 17% | Stats preview | #606 | |
| 2 | 58% | 25% | 17% | Full analysis | #695 | |
| 3 | 58% | 25% | 17% | Official lineups | #775 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 3 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Alavés: last 6
LLDLLW · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 18 Oct | at Celta Vigo | 1–2 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs Atletico Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | at Athletic Club | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Sep | vs Valencia | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sep | at Racing Santander | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Osasuna | 5–2 | W |
Last 5 at home: LLWWW
Málaga: last 6
LDLLDD · 5 scored, 11 conceded
| 18 Oct | vs Real Sociedad | 2–5 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Getafe | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Sep | vs Villarreal | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | at Celta Vigo | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Levante | 0–0 | D |
Last 4 away: LDLL
Season stats
| Alavés | Málaga | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.44 | Goals scored per game | 0.67 |
| 1.11 | Goals conceded per game | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 0.25 |
| 56% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| 56% | Both teams scored | 56% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 11% |
| 22% | Failed to score | 44% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | +2 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | -2 | 14 | LDLWW |
| 7 | Alavés | 10 | +3 | 12 | DLLDL |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | +3 | 12 | WLDDD |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | +1 | 12 | WDLWW |
| … | |||||
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | -10 | 9 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | -2 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | -10 | 6 | LDDLW |
| 20 | Málaga | 10 | -12 | 5 | DLDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Alavés won 4, Málaga 1, 1 draw; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May 2023 | Alavés | 2–1 | Málaga | Segunda División |
| 18 Dec 2022 | Málaga | 1–0 | Alavés | Segunda División |
| 6 May 2018 | Málaga | 0–3 | Alavés | La Liga |
| 21 Dec 2017 | Alavés | 1–0 | Málaga | La Liga |
| 11 Mar 2017 | Málaga | 1–2 | Alavés | La Liga |
| 16 Oct 2016 | Alavés | 1–1 | Málaga | La Liga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1Sivera
Defenders
- 7Angel Pérez
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 16V. Koski
- 2N. Valentini
- 21A. Rebbach
Midfielders
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 10Carles Aleñá
Forwards
- 15L. Boyé
- 9M. Díaz
Substitutes (12)
- 23C. Benavídez
- 4Denis Suárez
- 22Miguel Rodríguez
- 13A. Giménez
- 27X. Olaiz
- 12Hugo Novoa
- 33Rubén Montero
- 20Aitor Mañas
- 11Toni Martínez
- 3Yusi
- 24Selu Diallo
- 17Jonny
Goalkeeper
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Defenders
- 3Puga
- 15Ángel Recio
- 4Einar Galilea
- 31Rafita
Midfielders
- 6Ramón Enríquez
- 10David Larrubia
- 8Carlos Dotor
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 39Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh
Forward
- 21Adrián Niño Heredia
Substitutes (12)
- 2J. Cajuste
- 23Izan Merino
- 20Fernando Calero
- 9Chupe
- 17Eneko Jauregi
- 13Carlos López
- 5Álex Pastor
- 14Rafa Rodríguez
- 12José Salinas
- 7H. Abaida
- 32J. Fernandez
- 25Juan Berrocal
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.F. GarcesSuspended
- OutJ. CruzMuscle
- OutJ. LobeteKnee
- OutP. MartinezFoot
Show 3 more
- OutJ. MunozCalf
- OutD. MurilloKnee
- OutA. OchoaKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Alavés sit 7th with 11 points from 9 games, with all three league wins coming at home.[5]
- Alavés have lost four of their last five matches, including the last two by 1-2 scorelines.[1]
- Málaga are bottom of the table and the only top-flight side without a win after nine rounds.[5][6]
- Málaga have conceded 18 goals and scored 6 in their nine league matches.[5][6]
- The match is round 10 of LaLiga and is played at the Mendizorroza stadium.[1]
Sources
- estadiodeportivo.com – Alavés - MálagaAlavés - Málaga: alineaciones probables, horario y dónde ...
- as.com – La plaga de lesiones no da tregua al Málaga: cae Pablo Martínez
- rotowire.com – Joaquin Munoz Injury: Ruled out against Alaves - RotoWire
- sportsmole.co.uk – Preview: Alaves vs Malaga - prediction, team news, lineups
- relevo.com – Alavés - Málaga: Funes se juega el crédito del ascenso - Relevo
Match context
- Rest days
- Alavés 5Málaga 5
- Matches in the last 14 days: Alavés 2 · Málaga 1
- Referee
- Carlos Muñiz Muñoz
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.08 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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