Real Sociedad vs Levante prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Real Sociedad to win: 62%, about 3 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 66% · bookies 66%
Bookmakers agree with us.
The Verdict
Our numbers moved away from the bookmakers by a minimal margin, shifting the home probability by one point. The Sceptic's view that Real Sociedad is slightly overrated was not followed, as the final probability remained heavily weighted toward the home team.
What our AI analysts say
All three broadly agree with the bookmakers.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsReal Sociedad's current form and tactical setup give them the edge over a struggling Levante.
Real Sociedad is in a good moment, while Levante has gone four matches without a win. Both teams are set up in a 4-4-2 formation. Real Sociedad's manager noted that Levante will be a complicated opponent.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureReal Sociedad's current good form and home advantage should see them secure the win.
Real Sociedad is reported to be in a good moment.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongThe high-scoring nature of the competition suggests goals are likely in this match.
Real Sociedad is in a good moment, though manager Matarazzo notes Levante will be complicated. The competition averages 3.04 goals per match this season.
Real Sociedad: slightly overrated
More goalsLow AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Real Sociedad, currently in good form, hosts Levante in a LaLiga fixture where both teams have significant injury concerns. The match is expected to be high-scoring, with Real Sociedad's home advantage being a key factor in the statistical lean.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Real Sociedad win or draw
- 82%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 80%
- Levante win or draw
- 39%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 85%
- 3+ goals
- 66%
- 4+ goals
- 44%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 61%
- No
- 39%
We expect about 2.2 goals from Real Sociedad and 1.2 from Levante. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 2–1 (10%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 10. Next: 1–1 (9%), 2–0 (8%), 1–0 (7%), 3–1 (7%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 62% | 20% | 18% | 66% |
| Goals model | 51% | 21% | 28% | 74% |
| AI analysts | 53% | 21% | 25% | 73% |
| Our forecast | 61% | 20% | 18% | 66% |
Verdict: Our final probabilities are very close to the market, shifting only slightly towards the home side. The Sceptic's view that Real Sociedad is slightly overrated was not followed, as the probability remained heavily weighted toward the home team.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% | 20% | 28% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #1162 | |
| 2 | 61% | 21% | 18% | Prices moved | #1306 | |
| 3 | 61% | 20% | 18% | Full analysis | #1383 | |
| 4 | 61% | 20% | 18% | Official lineups | #1487 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Real Sociedad: last 6
WWDWWL · 19 scored, 9 conceded
| 22 Oct | at Lillestrom UEFA Europa League | 6–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | at Malaga | 5–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | at Union St. Gilloise UEFA Europa League | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Deportivo La Coruna | 3–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | at Valencia | 3–2 | W |
| 17 Sep | vs Bournemouth UEFA Europa League | 1–2 | L |
Last 5 at home: WLLDW
Levante: last 6
WDDLLD · 10 scored, 12 conceded
| 21 Oct | vs Athletic Club | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Oct | at Deportivo La Coruna | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Oct | vs Sevilla | 3–3 | D |
| 20 Sep | at Villarreal | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Barcelona | 2–4 | L |
| 6 Sep | at Malaga | 0–0 | D |
Last 5 away: DLDDL
Season stats
| Real Sociedad | Levante | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.89 | Goals scored per game | 1.67 |
| 1.89 | Goals conceded per game | 1.89 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 3.25 |
| 2.40 | Scored per game away | 0.40 |
| 78% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| 67% | Both teams scored | 67% |
| 11% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 33% |
League matches only, 9 games each.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | +12 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | +14 | 21 | WWLWW |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | +2 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | -2 | 14 | LDLWW |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | +3 | 12 | DLLDL |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | +3 | 12 | WLDDD |
| … | |||||
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | +0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Osasuna | 9 | -8 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | -11 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 14 | Levante | 9 | -2 | 10 | WDDLL |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | -3 | 10 | WDDWL |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | -8 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | -10 | 9 | LDLWL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Real Sociedad won 3, Levante 2, 1 draw; 2.0 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | Real Sociedad | 2–0 | Levante | La Liga |
| 20 Dec 2025 | Levante | 1–1 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 6 May 2022 | Levante | 2–1 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| 28 Aug 2021 | Real Sociedad | 1–0 | Levante | La Liga |
| 7 Mar 2021 | Real Sociedad | 1–0 | Levante | La Liga |
| 19 Dec 2020 | Levante | 2–1 | Real Sociedad | La Liga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1Álex Remiro
Defenders
- 22Héctor Fort
- 6Jon Martín
- 19M. Sarr
- 17Sergio Gómez
Midfielders
- 24L. Sučić
- 4Jon Gorrotxategi
- 8Beñat Turrientes
- 11Gonçalo Guedes
Forwards
- 10Mikel Oyarzabal
- 9O. Óskarsson
Substitutes (12)
- 7Barrenetxea
- 21Y. Herrera
- 14T. Kubo
- 13Unai Marrero
- 15Pablo Marín
- 3Aihen Muñoz
- 12J. Ochieng
- 16Jon Pacheco
- 18Carlos Soler
- 23A. Zakharyan
- 5Zubeldia
- 2J. Aramburu
Goalkeeper
- 13M. Ryan
Defenders
- 29Nacho Pérez
- 2A. Mandi
- 3Ifeanyi Ndukwe
- 23Manu Sánchez
Midfielders
- 7Brugui
- 8Jon Ander Olasagasti
- 6Reque
- 24T. Fernández
Forwards
- 9Iván Romero
- 10P. Ratkov
Substitutes (12)
- 27Paco Cortés
- 14Jorge Cabello
- 1Pablo Cuñat
- 21Etta Eyong
- 17Víctor García
- 11Yanis Musuayi
- 32Primo
- 20Oriol Rey
- 33M. Santos
- 5Hugo Sotelo
- 16A. Tape
- 22J. Toljan
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- OutL. BeitiaAnkle
- OutA. OdriozolaKnee
- OutE. BardeliMuscle
- OutDelaOverload
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Real Sociedad is positioned fifth in the league with 16 points from nine matches.[1]
- Levante sits in fourteenth place with 10 points after nine games.[1]
- Real Sociedad's home record this season includes two wins, one draw, and one loss.[1]
- Levante's away form this season consists of three draws and two losses, with no wins.[1]
Still unclear
- Whether Aramburu and Herrera will start for Real Sociedad
Sources
- onefootball.com – Real Sociedad analysed player by player after Espanyol draw - OneFootball (2026-10-25)
Match context
- Travel for Levante
- 447 km
- Rest days
- Real Sociedad 2Levante 3
- Matches in the last 14 days: Real Sociedad 3 · Levante 3
- Weather at kick-off
- 18°C · wind 11 km/h
- Rain expected
- Referee
- Javier Alberola Rojas
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.05 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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