Athletic Club vs Getafe prediction
Full analysisTeam news, injuries and lineups read by our AI scouts, updated when the official lineups are out. How it works
KickoffHour pre-match forecast
Who wins?
Athletic Club to win: 63%, about 3 in 5
Goals call2 goals or fewer 57% · bookies 57% · ✗ 4 goals
The Verdict
Our numbers stay close to the market, moved only slightly on away (14% to 15%) by Getafe's thin back line and off-pitch friction. The Sceptic's 3-point shift toward Getafe was not followed, because its case leaned on model assumptions and conflicting table data rather than confirmed facts.
What our AI analysts say
1 of 3 think Getafe's chances are better than the bookmakers say. It does not make Getafe favourites.
The Coach
tactics and lineupsAthletic's stronger-than-expected XI edges a patched-up Getafe back line.
Athletic start close to full strength: Vivian returns and both Williams brothers make the XI despite doubt, softening the loss of suspended Laporte and injured Sancet.
The Dressing Room
mood and pressureTwo struggling squads under strain; a hard-fought draw here would surprise neither dressing room.
Both sides sit level on 9 points, Athletic 15th and Getafe 16th, with pressure visible around each camp. Neither arrives with calm momentum.
The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongMarket rates Athletic too high; a tight, low-scoring draw is more live than the price suggests.
The model puts Athletic at 47% with 32% draw, well below the 61.3% market home price. Expected goals are ~1.21-0.72 and this season averages 3.04 goals per match, while Over 2.5 is priced at 40.3% - that looks generous.
Getafe: slightly underrated
Fewer goalsLow✗ Wrong AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips. Who reads the game best
In short
Two struggling sides meet at San Mamés with both missing key men through suspension: Laporte for Athletic, Djene for Getafe. Athletic have not won in four league games, while Getafe arrive off a 2-5 European defeat and have lost all four away matches this season. Our numbers stay close to the market.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- Athletic Club win or draw
- 85%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 77%
- Getafe win or draw
- 37%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 70%
- 3+ goals
- 44%
- 4+ goals
- 23%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 41%
- No
- 59%
We expect about 1.7 goals from Athletic Club and 0.7 from Getafe. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–0 (15%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 6. Next: 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 0–0 (9%).
How we got to these numbers
| Home | Draw | Away | 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmakers | 63% | 23% | 14% | 43% |
| Goals model | 47% | 32% | 21% | 30% |
| AI analysts | 51% | 28% | 20% | 32% |
| Our forecast | 63% | 23% | 15% | 43% |
Verdict: Our numbers stay close to the market because Getafe's suspensions and injuries in defence roughly offset Athletic's own absences, and both sides' poor form gives no clear edge beyond home advantage. The Sceptic's case for Getafe rests partly on model output rather than confirmed facts, so we only nudge away up one point.
Our forecast starts from the bookmakers' prices and moves only by what the news justifies, capped at 8 percentage points per outcome. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% | 28% | 21% | Stats preview (goals model, no bookmaker prices) | #998 | |
| 2 | 61% | 23% | 16% | Prices moved | #1333 | |
| 3 | 60% | 23% | 16% | Full analysis | #1351 | |
| 4 | 63% | 23% | 15% | Official lineups | #1397 |
Frozen at kick-off. Version 4 is the one that counts in our track record. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
Athletic Club: last 6
LDDDWW · 7 scored, 4 conceded
| 21 Oct | at Levante | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Oct | at Valencia | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Alaves | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Elche | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Atletico Madrid | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | at Celta Vigo | 2–0 | W |
Last 4 at home: DDWL
Getafe: last 6
LDDLWL · 5 scored, 11 conceded
| 22 Oct | vs FC Lugano UEFA Europa Conference League | 2–5 | L |
| 19 Oct | vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Oct | at Universitatea Craiova UEFA Europa Conference League | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | at Barcelona | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Malaga | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Sep | at Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
Last 5 away: DLLLL
Season stats
| Athletic Club | Getafe | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored per game | 0.56 |
| 1.12 | Goals conceded per game | 1.22 |
| 1.25 | Scored per game at home | 1.00 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 0.00 |
| 38% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 22% |
| 38% | Both teams scored | 33% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 44% |
League matches only, 8 and 9 games.
LaLiga table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | +0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | -2 | 14 | LDLWW |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | +3 | 12 | DLLDL |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | +3 | 12 | WLDDD |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | +1 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | +0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| … | |||||
| 14 | Levante | 9 | -2 | 10 | WDDLL |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | -3 | 10 | WDDWL |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | -8 | 9 | LDDWL |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | -10 | 9 | LDLWL |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | -2 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | -10 | 6 | LDDLW |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | -12 | 5 | DLDLL |
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Athletic Club won 2, Getafe 2, 2 draws; 2.2 goals per game.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | Getafe | 2–0 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Athletic Club | 0–1 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 15 May 2025 | Getafe | 0–2 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 15 Aug 2024 | Athletic Club | 1–1 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 3 May 2024 | Getafe | 0–2 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 27 Sep 2023 | Athletic Club | 2–2 | Getafe | La Liga |
Team news: lineups Confirmed
Goalkeeper
- 1Unai Simón
Defenders
- 15Hugo Rincón
- 3Dani Vivian
- 4Aitor Paredes
- 17Yuri
Midfielders
- 16Ruíz de Galarreta
- 28Peio Canales
- 9I. Williams
- 7Álex Berenguer
- 10Nico Williams
Forward
- 21Maroan Sannadi
Substitutes (12)
- 22Nico Serrano
- 6Beñat Prados
- 5Yeray
- 20Alejandro Rego
- 13Álex Padilla
- 23Robert Navarro
- 31J. Louis-Jean
- 18Mikel Jauregizar
- 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
- 12Jesús Areso
- 33Christian Imga
- 34Jesús Vizcay Hurtado
Goalkeeper
- 13David Soria
Defenders
- 17Kiko Femenía
- 14Daniel Carvajal
- 8N. Gudelj
- 26J. Valou
- 22J. Mojica
Midfielders
- 11Ramón Terrats
- 16Francho Serrano
- 6Mario Martín
- 10M. Satriano
Forward
- 20Iván Azón
Substitutes (10)
- 21Andrés García
- 19E. Ünal
- 4S. Sazonov
- 28Alberto Risco
- 9Borja Mayoral
- 1J. Letáček
- 35Diego Ferrer
- 3Davinchi
- 5A. Abqar
- 15S. Boselli
Official team sheets, updated UK time (GMT).
Team news: injuries and suspensions
- Susp.A. LaporteSuspended
- OutU. EgiluzKnee
- OutG. GuruzetaKnee
Show 1 more
- OutO. SancetMuscle
- Susp.DjeneSuspended
- OutJuanmiKnee
- OutO. MangalaMuscle
Show 2 more
- OutZ. RomeroMuscle
- OutC. UcheKnee
From our match data feed · updated UK time (GMT).
Key facts
- Athletic Club sit 15th with 9 points from 8 games, having won just one league match at home this season.[5]
- Getafe sit 16th with 9 points from 9 games and have lost all four of their away league matches this season.[5]
- Athletic are without Laporte through suspension after a red card against Levante.[1][4]
- Getafe are missing Djene through suspension and several defenders through injury, leaving their back line short.[1][2][4]
- The match is LaLiga matchday 10 at San Mames, kicking off on 25 October 2026.[1][5]
- The teams' league positions and recent form differ between our sources and some match reports, so we rely on the verified data.[4][5]
Sources
- estadiodeportivo.com – Athletic Club - Getafe: Alineaciones probables, horario y dónde ver el ...
- marca.com – Athletic - Getafe | Un incendio que apagar - MARCA
- onefootball.com – PREVIEW | Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe CF: team news, lineups ...
- athletic-club.eus – San Mames stadium guide: Athletic Club vs Getafe CF (LaLiga 2026/27 MD10) - Athletic Club (2026-10-24)
Match context
- Rest days
- Athletic Club 3Getafe 2
- Matches in the last 14 days: Athletic Club 2 · Getafe 3
- Referee
- Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso
- Goals in this league
- LaLiga average: 3.04 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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