PSM Makassar vs Persepam Madura Utd prediction
Data modelBookmaker prices, home/away form, scoring trends and the table, read by our AI analysts. How it works
KickoffHour forecast · data model
Who wins?
PSM Makassar to win: 43%, about 2 in 5
Goals call3+ goals 52% · bookies 52%
Bookmakers' prices with their margin removed; a stats preview does not adjust them with news.
The Verdict
The analysis suggests a competitive match where Persepam's superior league position and attacking metrics give them the edge. However, PSM's strong home scoring rate and the high overall scoring environment mean a goal-heavy affair is likely, with the draw remaining a strong possibility.
Key factors
What our AI analysts say
All three think Persepam Madura Utd's chances are better than the bookmakers say.
The Coach
styles in the numbersPersepam's attacking efficiency away from home could challenge PSM's home offensive output.
PSM scores 2.00 per game at home, while Persepam averages 1.33 goals per game away.
Persepam Madura Utd: slightly underrated
More goalsLow The Dressing Room
the table and pressurePersepam, sitting 6 places higher, enters this fixture with a clear advantage in league standing.
Persepam has 13 points from 7 games in 5th place, while PSM has 9 points from 7 games in 11th place. Both teams have had 4 days rest.
Persepam Madura Utd: strongly underrated
More goalsHigh The Sceptic
where the market may be wrongPSM's recent defensive frailties suggest the market may be slightly overestimating their home dominance.
PSM has failed to score in 29% of their matches, yet their goals conceded per game is 1.71. Persepam's away form shows 2 losses in their last 3 fixtures.
Persepam Madura Utd: slightly underrated
Low Data-only analysis: no team news was found for this match, so our analysts read form, home/away splits, head-to-head, goal timings and the table. It does not change the numbers above. AI analysts are automated roles, not people. Their leans are not betting tips.
In short
PSM Makassar are slight favourites at 43%, with Persepam Madura Utd on 29% and the draw on 28%. PSM Makassar are 12th and Persepam Madura Utd 5th in Liga 1 Indonesia. In their last five league games, PSM Makassar won two and Persepam Madura Utd two.
More markets
Win or draw (double chance)
- PSM Makassar win or draw
- 71%
- Either team wins (no draw)
- 72%
- Persepam Madura Utd win or draw
- 57%
Goals in the match (over/under)
- 2+ goals
- 76%
- 3+ goals
- 51%
- 4+ goals
- 29%
Both teams score (BTTS)
- Yes
- 55%
- No
- 45%
We expect about 1.5 goals from PSM Makassar and 1.2 from Persepam Madura Utd. (expected goals)
Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Even the likeliest exact score happens only about 1 time in 8. Next: 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 0–1 (8%), 2–0 (7%).
How these numbers are made
A data-model preview uses the bookmakers' prices for this match with their margin removed by the power method. Our AI analysts read only the data (form, home and away record, head-to-head, goal timings and the table), not the team news, and they do not change these numbers. Total goals, both teams to score and likely scores come from one score grid fitted to these probabilities.
Stats previews are graded separately from our full analyses in the track record. Methodology
Prediction history
| # | Published | Home | Draw | Away | Reason | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% | 28% | 29% | Stats preview | #1885 |
This table freezes at kick-off; the last version before the start is the one that counts. Every version is in the public ledger (how to check).
Form
All competitions, newest first.
PSM Makassar: last 6
DWWLDD · 8 scored, 9 conceded
| 26 Oct | at Bhayangkara FC | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Oct | vs Persebaya Surabaya | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Oct | at PSIM Yogyakarta | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | at PSS Sleman | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Persita | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Arema FC | 3–3 | D |
Last 3 at home: WDD
Persepam Madura Utd: last 6
LWDLWW · 10 scored, 10 conceded
| 26 Oct | at Persebaya Surabaya | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Oct | vs Persib Bandung | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Oct | vs Bhayangkara FC | 3–3 | D |
| 9 Oct | at Persik Kediri | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | vs PSIM Yogyakarta | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | at PSS Sleman | 3–1 | W |
Last 3 away: LLW
Season stats
| PSM Makassar | Persepam Madura Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.29 | Goals scored per game | 1.71 |
| 1.71 | Goals conceded per game | 1.43 |
| 2.00 | Scored per game at home | 2.00 |
| 0.75 | Scored per game away | 1.33 |
| 71% | Matches over 2.5 goals | 57% |
| 57% | Both teams scored | 57% |
| 29% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 29% | Failed to score | 14% |
League matches only, 7 games each.
Liga 1 Indonesia table
| # | Team | Pld | Goal diff. | Points | League form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dewa United | 7 | +2 | 14 | LWDWW |
| 3 | Bali United | 7 | +12 | 13 | DWLWL |
| 4 | Persib Bandung | 7 | +3 | 13 | WLWDW |
| 5 | Persepam Madura Utd | 7 | +2 | 13 | LWDLW |
| 6 | Persita | 6 | +3 | 12 | DWWDW |
| 7 | Persebaya Surabaya | 7 | +3 | 12 | WLDWD |
| 8 | Bhayangkara FC | 7 | +3 | 11 | DWDDW |
| 9 | Persik Kediri | 7 | +2 | 10 | LWLWD |
| 10 | Arema FC | 7 | +2 | 9 | WLLDD |
| 11 | Pusamania Borneo | 6 | -1 | 9 | WLWLW |
| 12 | PSM Makassar | 7 | -3 | 9 | DWWLD |
| 13 | Java United | 7 | +0 | 7 −2 | DDWWL |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 7 | -7 | 5 | LLWLD |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 7 | -3 | 4 | LLDWL |
Match context
- Travel for Persepam Madura Utd
- 765 km
- +1 h time zone
- Rest days
- PSM Makassar 4Persepam Madura Utd 4
- Matches in the last 14 days: PSM Makassar 2 · Persepam Madura Utd 2
- Weather at kick-off
- 27°C · wind 6 km/h
- Rain expected
- Goals in this league
- Liga 1 Indonesia average: 2.89 per match
Published UK time (GMT) · Updated UK time (GMT)
This analysis was generated automatically by an AI model from public sources. How it works →
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